The growth in world trade is expected to slow down to one per cent in 2023, due to global uncertainties, according to a WTO forecast. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has also projected a growth of 3.5 per cent in global trade this year, as against the April estimate of 3 per cent. World trade is expected to lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and remain subdued in 2023, as multiple shocks weigh on the global economy, the multi-lateral body has said in a statement.
India's exports may have touched an all-time high of $422 billion in 2021-22 but recession in key western markets and geo-political crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war are expected to impact the growth of the country's outbound shipments in 2023. All the global trade promoting factors like political stability, movement of goods, adequate availability of containers and shipping lines, demand, stable currency and smooth banking systems are in disarray. Adding to the woes, COVID cases have again started rising in countries like China, Japan, South Korea and the US.
The most immediate challenge for growth is the disruption of the global economy brought about by the Ukraine war and related sanctions, the Covid shutdowns in China and the rising tide of inflation, points out Nitin Desai.
After raising interest rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in 11 months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday unexpectedly kept benchmark rate unchanged as global banking woes added uncertainty to the economic outlook. Five out of six members of MPC voted to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation aligns with target while focusing on growth, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank decided to take a pause after a rate hike seen in previous six consecutive policies.
Infosys on Thursday posted a 7.8 per cent year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 6,128 crore in March quarter of FY23, and gave 4-7 per cent revenue growth forecast for FY24 amid macro economic uncertainities. The net profit (after minority interest) stood at Rs 5,686 crore in the fourth quarter of FY22. Seen sequentially, the net profit for Q4 came in 7 per cent lower.
Growth in the region is expected to average 4.6 per cent for the year, a downward revision from the "Global Economic Prospects 2002" forecast of 5.3 per cent GDP growth.
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.39 lakh crore on Monday in line with a weak trend in the global equity markets. The BSE Sensex tanked 861.25 points or 1.46 per cent to settle at 57,972.62. During the day, it tumbled 1,466.4 points or 2.49 per cent to 57,367.47.
Information technology major Wipro has asked candidates who have successfully completed their training and who were offered Rs 6.5 lakh per annum earlier whether they would be willing to take up projects for an annual compensation of Rs 3.5 lakh. Wipro told Business Standard that it had to adjust its onboarding plans "in the light of the changing macro environment and, as a result, our business needs". "Like others in our industry, we continue to assess global economies and customer needs, which factor in our hiring plans.
India has sought a global consensus on spiralling prices of food and oil in many countries, saying the problem would transform into a global contagion if timely action is not taken. "Unless we act fast for a global consensus on the price spiral, the social unrest induced by food prices in several countries will conflagrate into a global contagion leaving no country developed or otherwise unscathed," Finance Minister P Chidambaram said.
Ahead of the 2023-24 Union Budget, the thinking at the top level of the central government is clear: Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6-6.5 per cent is a comfortable enough target for FY24 and the focus should be on fiscal consolidation to ensure that the sovereign cost of borrowing does not become prohibitively expensive in a high-interest rate environment, according to people in the know. Those aware of deliberations between the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the Ministry of Finance said while the Budget would look to strike a balance between infrastructure investment and welfare schemes, it is unlikely to be populist, though it will be the last full-year Budget before the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Incidentally, 6-6.5 per cent GDP growth is what the upcoming 2022-23 Economic Survey is expected to project for FY24.
China represents the "largest threat" to Britain and the world's security and prosperity this century and there is evidence to suggest it has targeted countries from the US to India, UK prime ministerial candidate Rishi Sunak said on Monday.
'Set aside around six months' monthly expenses for emergencies.' 'Keep this money in safe and liquid options, such as liquid funds and fixed deposits.'
India's exports contracted 12.2 per cent to $34.48 billion in December 2022, mainly due to global headwinds, and the trade deficit widened to $23.76 billion during the same period, according to official data released on Monday. Imports in December 2022 also declined 3.5 per cent to $58.24 billion as against $60.33 billion in the year-ago period. In December 2021, exports stood at $39.27 billion and the trade deficit was at $21.06 billion.
'While foreign institutional investor flows are still negative, they will turn positive in the latter part of 2023 as India's resilient growth becomes perceptible.'
Foreign ministers of G20 major economies will meet in the national capital on March 1 and 2 to deliberate on pressing global challenges amid escalating confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukraine conflict that entered the second year this week.
Brent crude oil prices may rise to $110 a barrel in 2023, up nearly 33 per cent from the current levels, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a recent note. This is, however, lower than the peak level of nearly $127 touched earlier in 2022 as geopolitical concerns took centre stage amidrising demand. "Looking ahead, Brent oil price growth will decelerate even more in the coming quarters. "This comes even as our global oil strategist expects a rise in oil prices back to $110 a barrel by the second half of 2023.
Benchmark indices advanced for the second straight session on Tuesday, with the Sensex and Nifty jumping nearly 2 per cent each, mirroring a rally in global equity markets. Buying in index majors Reliance Industries and IT stocks buoyed the benchmarks. The BSE Sensex zoomed 934.23 points or 1.81 per cent to settle at 52,532.07. During the day, it rallied 1,201.56 points or 2.32 per cent to 52,799.40. The NSE Nifty climbed 288.65 points or 1.88 per cent to finish at 15,638.80.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased to a five-month low of 13.93 per cent in July on easing prices of food articles and manufactured products. The WPI-based inflation softened for the second consecutive month in July, raising hopes of further decline in wholesale prices in the months to come. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation, after scaling a record high of 15.88 per cent in May, declined to 15.18 per cent in June. It was 13.43 per cent in February. It was 11.57 per cent in July last year.
India believes in sabka saath, sabka vikas, sabka vishwas, sabka prayaas and walks ahead with it, Modi said.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday cut India's economic growth forecast for current fiscal year to 7 per cent, but said the domestic demand-led economy will be less impacted by the global slowdown. S&P had in September projected the Indian economy to grow 7.3 per cent in 2022-23 and 6.5 per cent in next fiscal year (2023-24). "The global slowdown will have less impact on domestic demand-led economies such as India... India's output will expand 7 per cent in fiscal year 2022-2023 and 6 per cent in next fiscal year," S&P Global Ratings Asia-Pacific chief economist Louis Kuijs said.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
'It will send a very strong signal that it is now our time to grow.'
The country's current account deficit is likely to hit a three-year high of 1.8 per cent or $43.81 billion in FY22, as against a surplus of 0.9 per cent or $23.91 billion in FY21, a report said on Thursday. According to an assessment by India Ratings, the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has moderated to $17.3 billion or 1.96 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY22 as against $8.2 billion or 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period, and massively down from $23.02 billion or 2.74 per cent in Q3, which was a 13-quarter high. The improvement in the key numbers are due to the remarkable improvement in merchandise exports in FY22, when it grew 42.4 per cent as against a negative 7.5 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY121.
The new report highlights how different parts of the intelligence community have arrived at disparate judgments about the pandemic's origin.
The phone conversation came days after it emerged that Modi will not be travelling to Russia for the annual India-Russia summit this year.
India's exports recorded a flat growth of 0.59 per cent to $31.99 billion in November, even as trade deficit widened to $23.89 billion during the month, according to the data released by the government on Thursday. Exports stood at $31.8 billion in November last year. Imports rose by 5.37 per cent to $55.88 billion in November as compared to $53.03 billion in the corresponding month a year ago, the data showed. During April-November 2022, exports rose by 11 per cent to $295.26 billion as against $265.77 billion in the same month last year.
Stock market investors are expecting a balanced Budget with a focus on job creation, increased spending on infrastructure, reigning in the deficit, and bringing the economy back on track, experts said on Wednesday. Stock markets have been subdued in the run-up to the Union Budget with BSE's benchmark Sensex is almost flat so far this month. Even the corporate earning season failed to excite the markets, while some indices like IT and bankex have seen some positive movements.
A slowdown in hiring by India's top IT companies has resulted in a sharp increase in the industry's profit per employee in Q3FY23. The top four IT companies earned a net profit of 1.7 lakh per employee during October-December 2022, up 8.6 per cent from Rs 1.57 lakh in Q2FY23 and 16.3 per cent from a record low of Rs 1.47 lakh in Q1FY23. Earnings per employee in the third quarter were, however, still down 0.9 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
The World Bank has appointed Indermit Gill, an Indian national, chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics at the multilateral development bank. "Indermit Gill brings to this role a combination of leadership, invaluable expertise and practical experience working with country governments on macroeconomic imbalances, growth, poverty, institutions, conflict, and climate change," World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement. His appointment will be effective September 1, 2022.
For the banking system a new cycle starts in FY2024. It's fraught with fresh challenges on asset quality and profitability, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Asia's richest man Gautam Adani on Wednesday said his ports-to-power conglomerate will build three giga factories for manufacturing solar modules, wind turbines, and hydrogen electrolyzers as part of a $70 billion investment in clean energy by 2030. Adani group is stepping up investments across the green energy value chain as it aims to become the world's top renewable energy producer by 2030. "The Adani Group has already committed $70 billion (for climate change and green energy).
'You may see some movement indicating a simpler tax regime with less exemptions but with fewer tax rates making life simpler for taxpayers.'
The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.
The Omicron variant of Covid-19 adds new uncertainties to the global economic outlook but much will depend on its speed of transmission, hospitalisation and death rates, and also the effectiveness of vaccines, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its commentary titled 'Much to Learn About Omicronast', Moody's Analytics said although the variant appears to spread "remarkably quickly", it will be at least two more weeks before more will be known about this new variant. "The Omicron variant of COVID-19 adds new measures of uncertainty to the outlook for the global economy, although it is too soon to adequately quantify that risk.
Silver, which is currently trading at Rs 68,453 per kilogram, has appreciated 21.7 per cent over the past three months. Investors, however, shouldn't get carried away by its recent performance and put their money in it. Instead, they should evaluate its pros and cons and then take a considered decision based on their risk appetite.
Much of the the-foreign-media-is-biased hysteria that we see on social media these days is provoked by the bad press the regime is getting in the West, points out Vir Sanghvi.
Benchmark indices continued their downtrend for the fifth session on the trot on Thursday, with the Sensex tumbling nearly 817 points in early trade, tracking weak global trends and selling in index majors Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank. Unabated selling by foreign institutional investors also weighed on the sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 816.78 points lower at 53,271.61. The NSE Nifty declined 234.05 points to 15,933.05.
It's the sovereign right of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to decide on the oil production capacities, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said Friday. Refraining from commenting on the controversial decision of OPEC on cutting oil production by two million barrels a day, which has taken the world by surprise, Puri said it is likely to be scrutinized very carefully. During an interaction with a group of Indian reporters, he said that India as one of the major consumers of oil and gas also has a major say in the global oil market.
'Government's focus should be on the expenditure side in this Budget, not so much on the taxation side.'
Inflation to peak in the current quarter within tolerance band, moderating in the second half of next fiscal, says central bank.
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