If Beijing succeeds in this multipronged effort to challenge the current dominant power, it will have not just economic but political and security consequences. There is no let-up in the South China Sea nor any de-escalation moves on the India-China border. This portends to ominous signalling from Beijing, observes China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
Personal income tax as a percentage of GDP has gone up from 2.11 per cent in 2014-15 to 2.94 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal, indicating that taxpayer base is widening as a result of the steps taken by the present government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
After cement, billionaire Gautam Adani's group and Kumar Mangalam Birla's Aditya Birla Group are set for a face-off in the wires and cable business with both conglomerates announcing forays into the high double-digit growth sector.
The Trump trade shock is a chance to push long-overdue reforms, rather than tinker with tariffs to appease the US, suggests M Govinda Rao.
The first wave of COVID-19 last year impacted households as their financial savings moderated to 8.2 per cent of GDP in December quarter from 10.4 per cent in the previous three-month period, revealed an RBI data released on Wednesday. The preliminary estimate of household financial savings is placed at 8.2 per cent of GDP in October-December 2020-21, exhibiting a sequential moderation for the second consecutive quarter after having spiked in the pandemic-hit June quarter, RBI said in a release. "The moderation was driven by a significant weakening in the flow of household financial assets, which more than offset the moderation in the flow of household financial liabilities," it said.
'Retail investors have to stick to their asset allocation plans and continuously do portfolio reviews.'
The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.
With the fiscal deficit target staring at the government, the FY25 Budget has limited expenditure options, points out A K Bhattacharya.
'But I don't think the government is in a great hurry to sign the BTA.'
Large investors track high-frequency data that is immediately available today. That data has been bullish, points out Debashis Basu.
China has announced a 7.2 percent increase in its national defence budget, bringing the total to USD 249 billion for the year. This rise comes amidst China's ongoing efforts to modernize its armed forces, including the development of new warships and fighter jets. The budget increase, exceeding last year's 7.2 percent rise, reflects China's commitment to bolstering its military capabilities. Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of the Communist Party's leadership in guiding the military, with President Xi Jinping at the helm of the Central Military Commission. China's defence spending is now three times that of India's and is viewed by critics as a sign of the country's growing military ambitions.
The country's GDP is likely to grow at 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 and may see a contraction of around 7.3 per cent for the full financial year, according to an SBI research report 'Ecowrap'. The e-National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the GDP estimates for the March 2021 quarter and provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21 on May 31. "Based on our 'nowcasting model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 would be around 1.3 per cent (with downward bias) as against NSO (National Statistical Office) projection of a negative (-)1 per cent," the research report said.
The AAP chief stressed the need for an increase in healthcare spending, suggesting a rise to 10 percent of the GDP, along with the removal of taxes on health insurance premiums.
During his inauguration on Monday, President Trump declared a national emergency at the US southern border.
'2025 is the year to build a portfolio for the future. Focus this year should be on valuations and visible growth.'
The ideal time to invest in sector funds, is during a downturn so that investors can capitalise on a turnaround in 1.5 to 2 years.
China on Saturday lowered its GDP target to 5.5 per cent for this year bringing it down from last year's 6.1 per cent. The new target for the second-largest economy was announced by Premier Li Keqiang in his work report presented to the National People's Congress (NPC), the country's Parliament which opened its annual session in Beijing on Saturday. In 2021, China's economy grew by 8.1 per cent 2021 to about $18 trillion stated to be the best in a decade.
Foreign investors have withdrawn Rs 22,194 crore from Indian equities this month, driven by expectations of a weak earnings season, a steady rise in the US dollar, and concerns over tariff war during Donald Trump's presidency. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the month of December, data with the depositories showed.
With this, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also sent a strong message to ally, Janata Dal-United President and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, that their partnership remains intact and that they will be formidable partners at the hustings.
India will need to grow at an average 7.8 per cent to become a high-income country by 2047, a World Bank report said on Friday. To achieve this goal India would require reforms in financial sector as well as in land and labour market, the World Bank said in its India Country Memorandum titled 'Becoming a High-Income Economy in a generation'.
There is a "misperception" among the administration around deregulation, wherein digitisation is confused with deregulation, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Speaking at an event organised by alternative investment industry's lobby grouping IVCA in Mumbai, Nageswaran stressed that what is essential is to do away with needless regulations, whether they are to be complied with online or offline.
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
India's services sector activity expanded at the slowest pace in over two years in January amid softer increases in sales and output, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 59.3 in December to 56.5 in January -- its lowest level since November. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
The Reserve Bank should focus on making liquidity easier rather than cutting rates if the intent is to drive growth, Axis Bank's chief economist Neelkanth Mishra said on Tuesday. Mishra, who is also a part-time member of the Economic Advisory Council to the PM, said the rate cut announced earlier this month or even the subsequent ones if they were to come will not end up increasing borrowings as the scarce liquidity will hamper transmission.
'Each state is unique, but when it comes to finance, the fundamentals cannot be different.'
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday retained India's growth forecast at 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal and said it expects the RBI to start cutting interest rates in its October monetary policy review. In the economic outlook of Asia Pacific, S&P Global Ratings also retained its GDP growth forecast for the 2025-26 fiscal at 6.9 per cent and said solid growth in India will allow the Reserve Bank to focus on bringing inflation in line with its target.
Shares of state-owned bank stocks were under pressure on Monday due to muted deposit and credit growth numbers reported by these lenders in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2024-25 (FY25). The Nifty PSU Bank index was down 4 per cent, with Union Bank of India emerging as the biggest loser as its shares fell 7.5 per cent to close at Rs 114.7, followed by a 5.7 per cent drop in shares of Bank of Baroda (BoB) to Rs 228 and a 4.7 per cent slide in shares of Bank of India to Rs 99.8 on the National Stock Exchange.
However, the SBI report said it will take almost seven-quarters from Q4 FY21 to reach the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms and there will be a permanent output loss of around 9 per cent of GDP.
Under capital expenditure, Rs 48,614 crore has been set aside for aircraft and aero engines while Rs 24,390 crore has been allocated for the naval fleet.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 44,396 crore from Indian equities this month, driven by strength of the dollar, rising bond yields in the US, and expectations of a weak earnings season. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the month of December, data with the depositories showed.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
If the fiscal deficit target of 4.9% of GDP has to be met for 2024-2025, which the government must in view of the uncertainties and challenges emerging both domestically and globally, the finance ministry may see in the composition of the current year's capex a sliver of hope, notes A K Bhattacharya.
Following the eviction of protesting farmers from the Shambhu border, Haryana security personnel began removing cemented barricades erected to prevent Punjab farmers from reaching Delhi. The Shambhu-Ambala road, closed for over a year, is being cleared with JCBs and other machinery. Meanwhile, the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (Non-Political) and the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha announced dharnas outside deputy commissioners' offices in protest against the Punjab Police crackdown. The groups criticized the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government in Punjab for evicting the protesters and detaining farmer leaders on Wednesday. The police action was justified by Punjab Finance Minister Harpal Singh Cheema, who said industries and businesses were hit hard due to the prolonged closure of the highways. The protesting farmers, led by the Samyukta Kisan Morcha and the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha, had been camping at the Shambhu and Khanauri border points since February 13, 2022.
From the 30-share pack, Adani Port, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, HCL Technologies and ICICI Bank were among the laggards. Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, ITC and Tata Steel were among the gainers.
There is a reason this 11 year phenomenon is a rule as much as it is an observation. It speaks to the nature of man and what humans are like, explains Aakar Patel.
It's always been a struggle for economists and statisticians to forecast India's gross domestic product (GDP) correctly, and say where the economy is headed before the official numbers come out. If estimating the GDP is tough, forecasting it in real time is complicated. It involves looking at tens of indicators, such as industrial production, electricity consumption and exports, to arrive at a number.
Global factors and FII activity will dictate trends in domestic equity markets this week while assembly poll results of Maharashtra and Jharkhand may impact stocks on Monday, say analysts. Stock markets witnessed a spirited recovery on Friday with benchmark Sensex and Nifty notching the best single-day gains in more than five months and offering relief after weeks of correction.
Citing the massive surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March quarter, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised downwards its India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent earlier. However, UBS Securities does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year as it has revised upwards its real GDP forecast to 8.2 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent earlier, expecting the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average. The World Bank pegs it at 8.3 per cent, unchanged from its June assessment, saying the recovery is not broad-based yet.
The Centre's fiscal deficit at the end of the first seven months of financial year 2024-25 touched 46.5 per cent of the full-year target, government data showed on Friday. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit -- the gap between government's expenditure and revenue -- was at Rs 7,50,824 crore during April-October period, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA). The deficit stood at 45 per cent of the Budget Estimates (BE) in the corresponding period of 2023-24.
