India has to fill in all the critical gaps in missiles, ammunition, sensors and stockpile in the fastest possible manner, focusing on the critical instruments that worked this time, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
'I believe that the overall demand for commercial vehicles will improve, even though there is a slowdown in the GDP.'
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years.
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to cut the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5% was contrary to the expectations of many economists. Firstly, most of the economists expected the MPC to cut the repo rate by 25 bps citing the weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity.
In a double-dose bid to boost growth and employment prospects, the Union Cabinet on Tuesday approved a Rs 2.07 trillion outlay for a research development and innovation (RDI) Scheme to fund private sector innovations, and an employment-linked incentive (ELI) to create over 35 million new jobs over the next two years.
The country's real GDP growth in the first quarter will be better than the Reserve Bank's estimate of 8 per cent, economists said on Tuesday. Economists at the country's largest lender SBI pegged the growth at 8.3 per cent while domestic rating agency Icra estimated it to come even higher at 8.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period.
Geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, volatility in international commodity prices and financial market uncertainties pose considerable risks to India's economic growth in the coming year, the finance ministry cautioned on Wednesday. "Global trade continues to be affected by uncertainty in the policy environment... tariff-related developments in multiple countries have heightened trade-related risks, affecting investment and trade flows globally.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall across India in June, with most parts of the country likely to experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures. The IMD also anticipates above-normal minimum temperatures across most of the country, except for some parts of central India and the adjoining south peninsula. The southwest monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009. The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture-dependent economy, providing vital water for crops and supporting drinking water and hydropower generation.
'The finance minister missed yet another opportunity to simplify the income tax structure in the Budget.' 'This was an opportune moment to get rid of the old tax system entirely and move fully to the new system,' asserts M Govinda Rao, member of the 14th Finance Commission.
The labourers, who are said to be of Nepali origin, were engaged in the construction of a hotel.
The government may save over Rs 70,000 crore (Rs 700 billion) on capital and revenue expenditure allocated towards new schemes in the FY25 Budget that are yet to be implemented.
"The new structure will substantially reduce taxes on the middle class and leave more money in their hands, boosting household consumption, savings and investment," Sitharaman said presenting what was dubbed as 'reformist' budget for the next fiscal in Lok Sabha.
While a giant, it's a nimble-footed one, and is growing at a speed that even some of its private sector peers find enviable.
Between FY18 and FY24, it doubled its balance sheet. Despite being a late entrant in some segments, it has been able to grab market share, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Citing a weak manufacturing sector coupled with the steep margin compression, SBI Research has pencilled in the country's GDP growth for the second quarter at 5.8 per cent, down 30 basis points from average estimates. The government will release the official numbers on November 30. In a report on Monday, SBI Research headed by Soumya Kanti Ghosh said corporate results, operating profit of companies, excluding banking and financial sector, degrew by 14 per cent in Q2FY23 as against 35 per cent growth in Q2FY22, though the top line continued to grow at a healthier pace.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its outlook for India's economic growth unchanged at 7 per cent for the current fiscal year while forecasting a weaker-than-previously expected pace for developing Asia. ADB's 7 per cent growth projection for fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023), unchanged from its September forecast, compares to 8.7 per cent GDP growth in 2021-22. For 2023-24, the GDP growth has been kept unchanged at 7.2 per cent.
There are challenges galore before him, and it is not going to be easy. In the next four years, he has to conjure a system that changes the optics about him and the BJP both nationally and internationally so that he can ride back on his own, claim the top slot, and not have to lean on a coalition, asserts Ramesh Menon as Modi 3.0 completes a year in power.
India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on Tuesday. However, for the 2022-23 fiscal, the current account balance recorded a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP compared to 1.2 per cent in 2021-22. "India's current account deficit (CAD) decreased to $1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago [Q4:2021-22]," as per the RBI's 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23'.
'Will this near-war, India's strongest military response so far, buy India another seven years of deterrence?' asks Shekhar Gupta.
'My job is to provide people with a bouquet of options they can choose from.'
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
The Centre's fiscal deficit at the end of the eighth month of financial year 2024-25 touched 52.5 per cent of the full-year target, government data showed on Tuesday. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit -- the gap between the government's expenditure and revenue -- was about Rs 8.47 lakh crore during the April-November period, according to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
The Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin released on Tuesday. An article on the 'State of the Economy' in the December bulletin noted that the global economy continues to exhibit resilience with steady growth and moderating inflation.
India's service sector activity accelerated slightly in April largely driven by a quicker increase in new order inflows, which also underpinned a faster expansion in employment, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index reached 58.7 in April, up from 58.5 in March, indicating a sharp and stronger expansion in service sector output.
A Mumbai court has granted anticipatory bail to Samajwadi Party MLA Abu Azmi in a case filed against him for his remarks praising Mughal ruler Aurangzeb. The court, however, cautioned Azmi to exercise restraint during interviews, warning that any irresponsible statement could spark riots. The case stems from Azmi's remarks during an interview where he praised Aurangzeb's rule and claimed that India's GDP during his reign accounted for 24 percent of the world's GDP. Azmi's lawyer argued that his client's statements were made spontaneously and without any malicious intent, while the prosecution opposed the bail plea, arguing that the remarks were made in a sensitive time following the release of a film based on the life of Chhatrapati Sambhaji Maharaj, a revered Maratha king who was captured by Aurangzeb. The court noted that the investigation was at a preliminary stage and that the investigating officer did not have the video recording of the interview when the case was filed. The court also expressed concern over the potential for Azmi's remarks to incite violence.
The Centre's fiscal deficit touched 74.5 per cent of the annual target at the end of January 2025, according to the data released by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday.
India's services sector activity witnessed a sharp uptick in February boosted by improving domestic and international demand, which resulted in a quicker expansion in output and a substantial increase in employment, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from January's 26-month low of 56.5 to 59.0 in February, indicating a sharp rate of expansion.
India fully utilised its military modernisation budget in 2024-2025 -- the first time in five years -- and signed a record Rs 2 trillion defence contracts.
The US Fed interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack will also remain on investors' radar, they added.
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi officially commissioned the Vizhinjam International Seaport on Friday in Thiruvananthapuram in the presence of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and senior Congress leader Shashi Tharoor, whose presence at the inauguration, Modi said, will give 'sleepless nights' to many.
While growth in India is largely domestic and hence the overall GDP effect may not be more than 0.15-0.2%, but overall trade will be impacted due to every country going back to the drawing board, points out Madan Sabnavis.
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
The prospect of protracted uncertainties in the global economic landscape not only pose a risk for India's growth outlook in 2025-26, but are also likely to dent the private sector's capital raising and investment plans, the finance ministry averred on Tuesday, cautioning the country's corporates that the era of 'easy pickings' was over.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
'The finance minister has done as much as she can when you look into the fiscal constraints she had.'
...and getting GDP to measure India's data economy, recommends Ajit Balakrishnan.
Investors should avoid making drastic changes to their asset allocation during a market correction.
Global trends, tariff-related updates and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key drivers for the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Markets witnessed a strong rebound last week, with the benchmark indices surging over 4 per cent.
