'Challenge is basically near-term growth as the outlook has turned a bit adverse.'
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Credit-focused SIFs with lower minimum investment thresholds can provide a more practical option for investors with higher risk appetite, suggests Subodh Rai.
'Our attempt to honour the taxpayer has been since 2014 and more actively since 2019-2020 onwards.'
After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
Outgoing Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Tuesday that restoring inflation-growth balance is the most important task ahead of the central bank. Addressing a press conference on his last day as the central bank chief, Das said his successor will have to navigate the changing world order, effectively deal with cyber threats, and focus on harnessing new technologies.
President Xi Jinping has said that no one can ever stop Taiwan's reunification with China as he signed off 2024 amid growing anxieties in the country over the continued slowdown of the economy and the return of Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose punitive tariffs and trade measures against Beijing in his second term.
Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added.
Novice investors must understand that volatility is an inherent part of equity markets and learn to navigate through such phases.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Adani Ports, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel and Reliance Industries were the biggest gainers. NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank and Larsen & Toubro were among the laggards.
Amid increasing volatility and recession fears looming over global markets that has led to the decline in wealth of a number of billionaires, Gautam Adani was the only one to buck the trend. The billionaire added $43.3 billion in net worth between Diwali 2021 (November 4) and this year's Diwali (October 24) according to Bloomberg data. He added more wealth than the gross domestic product (GDP)of more than a dozen Indian states.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Gross GST collections grew 8.5 per cent to over Rs 1.82 lakh crore in November on account of increased sales spurred by the festive season.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday retained India's growth forecast at 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal and said it expects the RBI to start cutting interest rates in its October monetary policy review. In the economic outlook of Asia Pacific, S&P Global Ratings also retained its GDP growth forecast for the 2025-26 fiscal at 6.9 per cent and said solid growth in India will allow the Reserve Bank to focus on bringing inflation in line with its target.
'Women' as a political constituency appears to be an idea that has come of age. It is changing India in ways that we only dimly understand, asserts Aditi Phadnis.
Corporate India's net profit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) dipped in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23) -- after rebounding sharply in FY22 -- amid a decline in global commodity prices. Top 500 companies' combined net profit stood at 4.1 per cent of the GDP for FY23, down from 4.3 per cent in the previous financial year when it had gone up from just 3.5 per cent in FY21. "The year-on-year (YoY) decline was led by global commodities, which contributed adversely to the ratio, while the financial sector contributed positively.
The country's real GDP growth in the first quarter will be better than the Reserve Bank's estimate of 8 per cent, economists said on Tuesday. Economists at the country's largest lender SBI pegged the growth at 8.3 per cent while domestic rating agency Icra estimated it to come even higher at 8.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period.
As the Union Budget 2025-2026 (FY26) inches closer, the Indian real estate industry is seeking stamp duty cuts, revised home loan limits and updated affordable housing norms through Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (PMAY), single-window clearance and eco-friendly policies, among others. Industry leaders and consultancy firms, including Anarock, Raheja, Gaurs, Kanodia Group, Reach, Urban Space, Justo and Eros Group, have shared their expectations.
The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7 per cent in the 2022-23 fiscal, down from 8.7 per cent a year ago, mainly due poor performance of mining and manufacturing sectors. As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, the manufacturing sector output is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.9 per cent in 2021-22. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 per cent in 2021-22.
'If the Trump administration decides to put guardrails on H-1B visas, that will surely impact both US and Indian firms.'
The RBI has changed the way it approached supervision in the past. Having seen a couple of collapses in the NBFC sector and the near-collapse of a few banks, it is focusing on regular drills to prevent a fire from breaking out, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The RBI under former governor Shaktikanta Das resisted pressures to cut interest rates through 2024 as it kept its 'Arjuna's eye' trained on inflation, but the central bank under a new detail-oriented head will soon have to take a call if it can continue sacrificing growth. Das, a career bureaucrat who in 2016 oversaw Prime Minister Narendra Modi's highly disruptive demonetisation move, left a lasting legacy as he demitted office towards the end of 2024 after expertly navigating monetary policy for six years, the highlight of which was steering India's recovery through the pandemic.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
With the rapid evolution of channels like quick-commerce and the emergence of ONDC, the Indian retail industry is 'cautiously optimistic' for 2025, in which new-age technologies such as AI and automation will play a crucial role, driving efficiency and personalisation.
With the fiscal deficit target staring at the government, the FY25 Budget has limited expenditure options, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The government's initiative to migrate SEZ data from NSDL software to ICEGATE system for streamlined reporting of import data caused double counting of gold imports, resulting in inflated figures and the issue has now been largely rectified, government sources said. The downward revision has provided the actual picture of trade deficit (difference between imports and exports), which was earlier looking very high. The deficit for November will now be revised downwards from $37.84 billion to about $32.8 billion. Similarly, there will be a revision in overall import numbers as well.
The World Bank on Tuesday raised the growth forecast for the Indian economy to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year on the back of recovery in agri sector and rural demand. World Bank had in June projected India to grow at 6.6 per cent for FY24. According to the World Bank Report released on Tuesday, India's growth continues to be strong despite a challenging global environment.
The government has revised gold import data, bringing down numbers for November by $5 billion to $9.84 billion, possibly to rectify double accounting of inbound shipments. According to revised data of the commerce ministry arm Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), gold import numbers have been slashed since April 2024, revealing excess imports of about $11.7 billion during the first eight months of 2024-25.
The Centre's fiscal deficit at the end of the first five months of the current fiscal touched 27 per cent of the full-year target, government data showed on Monday. In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit -- the gap between expenditure and revenue -- was at Rs 4,35,176 crore as of August-end, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA). The deficit stood at 36 per cent of the Budget Estimates (BE) in the corresponding period of 2023-24.
We no longer have the ambition to rival China save through words. We are happy to be fighting ourselves and digging up disputes from centuries ago as a substitute for real development, argues Aakar Patel.
India's steel market is out of step with global trends. Global demand is weak with China at a huge supply surplus to its domestic demand, pushing down global steel prices. India's domestic demand for steel is strong, given the continuing infrastructure push and is likely to accelerate as urbanisation improves, and the auto sector continues to grow alongside the infrastructure push.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on Tuesday. However, for the 2022-23 fiscal, the current account balance recorded a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP compared to 1.2 per cent in 2021-22. "India's current account deficit (CAD) decreased to $1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago [Q4:2021-22]," as per the RBI's 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23'.
After depreciating 0.32 per cent against the dollar in October so far, the rupee is expected to hold ground against the greenback in the current quarter on the back of robust inflows. According to the median of a Business Standard poll of 10 respondents, the rupee is seen trading around 84 per dollar till the end of December. "In India's case, at least the bond and cash related inflows will continue.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
The water crisis could jeopardise more than half of the world's food production and cause an average global GDP loss of 8 per cent by 2050, with lower-income countries facing up to a 15 per cent loss, according to a new report.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
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