Companies are squeezing more profits from their operations relative to the capital they put to work, the highest now since 2011. Profit after tax relative to capital employed came in at 10.47 per cent in September, shows data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), higher than the 8.41 per cent seen in September last year. This is the highest since March 2010.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the central bank does not target any band for the rupee in the forex market, and allows the domestic currency to find its own correct level.
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
With inflation comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent median target and likely to undershoot its 3.7 per cent projection for 2025-26 (FY26), there is room for the monetary policy easing cycle to be sustained, the Finance Ministry said on Monday. The comments, featured in the ministry's Monthly Economic Review for June 2025, assume significance ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) scheduled to begin from August 5.
The domestic stock market will continue to monitor the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on global supplies besides prices of crude oil this week, analysts said. Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also drive investors' sentiment during the week.
India continues to remain an attractive investment destination and rise in repatriation of funds is a sign of a mature market where foreign investors can enter and exit smoothly, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday. Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows remained strong, rising by around 14 per cent to $81 billion in 2024-25, from $71.3 billion a year ago.
Sebi aims to stay proactive as HFT and quant firms like Citadel Securities, Optiver, Millennium, and IMC Trading are expanding rapidly in India, which is home to the world's largest derivatives market by contracts traded.
India posted a current account surplus of $13.5 billion or 1.3 per cent of GDP in March quarter 2024-25 as compared with $4.6 billion in the year-ago period mainly on account of surge in services exports and higher remittances, according to RBI data released on Friday.
The Reserve Bank of India on Monday issued an operational framework for reclassification of investment made by a foreign portfolio investor to foreign direct investment (FDI) if the entity breaches the prescribed limit. Markets regulator Sebi too has issued a circular on procedure for reclassification of FPI investment to FDI.
Portfolio investors based out of the US and other countries with which India does not have favourable tax treaties will have to pay a 15 per cent tax on their derivative transactions, after the Budget decided to classify income from all foreign portfolio investment as capital gains.
India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was $8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
Private consumption is back driven by festive spending, and the medium-term economic outlook remains bullish as the innate strength of the macro-fundamentals reasserts itself, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Wednesday. Global economic activity remained resilient during Q4:2024 amidst fragile confidence and rising protectionism, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the November Bulletin.
The country's current account deficit widened marginally to $9.7 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in April-June 2024, as against $8.9 billion or 1 per cent in the year-ago period, Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. The crucial number representing the country's external sector strength has come on the heels of a surplus of $4.6 billion or 0.5 per cent of GDP recorded in the preceding January-March quarter. The Reserve Bank attributed the year-on-year widening in current account deficit to a rise in merchandise trade gap which was recorded at $65.1 billion in Q1 FY25 as compared to $56.7 billion in the year-ago period.
Canada's foreign direct investment (FDI) into India doubled after the pandemic years even as India's own investments into Canada show signs of slackening in recent years. The cumulative equity FDI inflows from Canada rose from $1.8 billion in March 2019 to $3.9 billion in March 2024, shows data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT). The overall share is up from 0.42 per cent to 0.57 per cent during the same period, suggesting that Canadian FDI grew faster than overall FDI during this period
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
With India overtaking China in terms of weightage in the Morgan Stanley emerging markets IMI, Indian equities could see inflows of about $4.5 billion (Rs 37,000 crore), according to estimates. This week, Morgan Stanley announced that India has overtaken China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (MSCI EM IMI). The weight of India in MSCI EM IMI stood at 22.27 per cent compared to 21.58 per cent of China.
A delegation of high-level executives from US public pension funds (non-profit and government sectors) is visiting India next week to assess and familiarise themselves with the investment opportunities in the country. These executives belong to various American states and cumulatively represent $1.8 trillion in assets under management (AUM) invested across the US and global markets. The United States (US) mission to India, which includes its embassy and consulates and the Department of Treasury, along with India's Ministry of Finance and the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF), is hosting the delegation.
India's foreign exchange reserves increased to $604 billion as on December 1, surpassing the $600 billion mark after a gap of about four months. The forex reserves were last above the $600 billion mark on August 11 this year. "India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $604 billion as on December 1, 2023.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
A potential risk to the rupee's appreciation trajectory lies in the event of a delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, particularly if core inflation in the US remains elevated.
India's current account deficit declined sharply to 1 per cent of the GDP or $8.3 billion in the second quarter of this financial year, mainly due to lower merchandise trade deficit and growth in services exports, according to a RBI data released on Tuesday. The current account deficit (CAD), which represents the difference between the total amount of money sent abroad and money received from overseas across the economy, was 3.8 per cent of GDP or $30.9 billion in the July-September quarter in 2022-23. CAD was $9.2 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year 2023-24.
After falling 10 per cent against the greenback in 2022, the rupee staged a comeback in 2023 as it appreciated, albeit marginally, on the back of strong portfolio inflows, in addition to timely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian unit appreciated by 0.16 percent in six months until June 28. The rupee stood in third place in terms of appreciation against the US dollar among the 12 Asian currencies and in 12th place of the 23 emerging-market currencies.
'Higher inflows into these securities should lead to lower borrowing costs for the government.'
On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.3 per cent in current financial year aided by investment and domestic demand. According to a World Bank report released on Tuesday, India continues to show resilience against the backdrop of a challenging global environment. In India, which accounts for the bulk of South Asia region, growth is expected to remain robust at 6.3 per cent in 2023-24, India Development Update of the World Bank said.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
Investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes dropped to Rs 88,398 crore month-on-month in February amid higher valuation of domestic markets. This was the third consecutive monthly decline in the investment level. Before this, investment through the route had been on an increasing trend since July 2022 because of a slump in the oil and other commodities prices and the relative outperformance of Indian equity markets.
The value of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Indian equities was at $542 billion in the March quarter of 2023, a decline of 11 per cent from the preceding year, largely due to the exodus of foreign money from the domestic market, according to a Morningstar report. In comparison, the value of FPI in Indian equities was $612 billion in the January-March quarter of 2022. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the value of FPI in Indian equities fell by 7 per cent from $584 billion recorded in the three months ended December 2022.
JP Morgan's decision last week to include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite from June 2024 may be a sort of blessing for India, as the move is estimated to result in an inflow of $25 billion of foreign portfolio investments into the country. The development comes at a time when the spread between the benchmark 10-year government of India bond and the 10-year US government bond has declined to its lowest level in more than 17 years. Low yield spreads make Indian bonds less attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
The Enforcement Directorate on Monday seized three offices in a prime location in Mumbai, valued more than Rs 41 crore, as part of a foreign exchange violation probe against a businessman whose name figured in the Panama Papers.
Have the markets already played out their dynamics before the economy has even properly taken off? Are we now destined for a period of mediocre returns despite a strong economy? asks Akash Prakash.
India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on Tuesday. However, for the 2022-23 fiscal, the current account balance recorded a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP compared to 1.2 per cent in 2021-22. "India's current account deficit (CAD) decreased to $1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago [Q4:2021-22]," as per the RBI's 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23'.
Market regulator Sebi suppressed important facts from the Supreme Court and "slept over" Directorate of Revenue Intelligence's letter on alleged stock manipulation by the Adani firms, one of the PIL petitioners in the Adani-Hindenburg row has alleged in the top court in an affidavit. The apex court is seized of four PILs on the Adani-Hindenburg controversy including those by lawyers M L Sharma and Vishal Tiwari, Congress leader Jaya Thakur and law student Anamika Jaiswal. On August 25, SEBI had informed the apex court it has completed the probe in all but two allegations against the Adani group, and is still awaiting information from five tax havens on the actual owners behind the foreign entities that have invested in the conglomerate.
India's foreign exchange reserves declined $1.15 billion to $571.56 billion for the week ended July 22, according to RBI data. The reserves has been declining amid continuing volatility in the rupee which has also significantly depreciated against the US dollar. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined by $7.54 billion to $572.71 billion.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
After declining for three consecutive quarters, the value of FPI investment in Indian equities rose 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $566 billion in the July-September period, according to a Morningstar report on Wednesday. A fast-changing global macroeconomic landscape, sentiments and opportunities that the Indian equity markets have to offer impacted the direction of flows by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). Through the quarter, the value of the FPI holdings in domestic equities surged by 8 per cent to $566 billion from $523 billion recorded in the previous quarter.
The government's step could push investors to choose riskier equity, or to fall back on bank deposits, thereby negatively impacting the debt market which actually needs to grow, points out T N Ninan.
Indian rupee has declined by about 25 per cent since December 31, 2014, and is nearing 80 against the dollar, the Lok Sabha was informed on Monday. The value of the rupee declined from 63.33 against a dollar on December 31, 2014, to 79.41 on July 11, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a reply quoting RBI data. The exchange rate of the Indian Rupee against the dollar was Rs 78.94 per dollar as of June 30, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a written reply.
After a turnaround in performance by Indian equity markets since July that has seen the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 wipe out the year-to-date losses, analysts suggest investors start nibbling into stocks that are focused on the domestic economy. While they say intermittent corrections, led by policies of global central banks and other economic data, cannot be ruled out, analysts expect India's relative outperformance among global equity markets to continue as it looks better placed with a healthy economic recovery, and remains one of the fastest growing major economies. In this backdrop, Neeraj Chadawar, head of quantitative equity strategy at Axis Securities, believes that amid global slowdown, aggressive tightening by the central banks, and preference for domestic interests first (by the local government), export-oriented themes are likely to be muted or will deliver conservative returns in the near-term.
The People's Bank of China has picked up a 0.006 per cent stake in ICICI Bank by investing Rs 15 crore in the private sector lender's Rs 15,000 crore qualified institutional placement (QIP) exercise which concluded last week.
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