'From tariff tensions and border skirmishes to unrest in West Asia.' 'The worst may be behind us. But any further upmove will now have to come from earnings.'
Gold prices are expected to witness further consolidation in the coming week as investors brace for a slew of events, ranging from central bank meetings, including the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting's outcome, to global trade negotiations, analysts said.
Trading sentiment in the stock market this week will be guided by quarterly earning announcements from blue-chips such as Infosys and Bajaj Finance, the outcome of India-US trade talks and global cues, analysts said. Markets may on Monday react to the quarterly results of three heavyweights - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, an expert said.
'As long as Sebi maintains transparency and market stability, the Jane Street episode is unlikely to deter long-term foreign capital.'
The domestic stock market will continue to monitor the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on global supplies besides prices of crude oil this week, analysts said. Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also drive investors' sentiment during the week.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Adani Ports, NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Axis Bank and Sun Pharma were the major losers. Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle and Maruti were among the gainers.
Analysts expect Nifty to rise up by to 6 per cent in six months, with intermittent corrections likely due to global factors.
The rupee has held its ground against the US dollar in the 2025 calendar year so far, but depreciated significantly against the euro and pound. It fell by 6.83 per cent, and 5.44 per cent against the euro and pound respectively, as the two currencies strengthened significantly against the greenback during the period.
Foreign investors continue to exhibit confidence in the country's equity market, injecting Rs 19,860 crore in May driven by favourable global economic indicators and strong domestic fundamentals. This positive momentum follows a net investment of Rs 4,223 crore in April, data with the depositories showed.
The change in stance to neutral from accommodative in the June monetary policy meeting does not necessarily signal that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) rate setting body - monetary policy committee (MPC) - will go on a prolonged pause on rate cuts going forward, believe experts.
From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Nestle, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers. However, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were the laggards.
'When you have the best market at your doorstep, international diversification is a distraction.'
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
'Right now, silver -- and especially platinum -- are very cheap compared to gold. If I were buying today, I would choose platinum.'
The US Fed interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack will also remain on investors' radar, they added.
Gold prices rose by Rs 70 to hit yet another record high of Rs 98,170 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid firm global demand, according to the All India Sarafa Association. On Wednesday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity soared by Rs 1,650 to hit an all-time high of Rs 98,100 per 10 grams.
Gold prices inched closer to the psychological mark of Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams as the bullion rates surged Rs 1,650 in the national capital on Monday on weak dollar and uncertainties over US-China trade war driving demand. According to the All India Sarafa Association, the yellow metal of 99.9 per cent purity reached Rs 99,800 per 10 grams on Monday. Its value had declined Rs 20 to close at Rs 98,150 on Friday.
Gold future prices sustained upward trend for the fourth straight session by surging Rs 2,048 to hit a fresh record high of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams as investors rushed to safe havens after US President Donald Trump indicated plans to overhaul Federal Reserve amid continuing global trade war jitters. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the August delivery contract of the yellow metal bounced by Rs 2,048 or 2.1 per cent to hit a fresh peak of Rs 100,000 per 10 grams in the mid-session trade.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rallied for the third session on the trot, helped by a rally in global markets after lower-than-expected consumer inflation in the US ignited hopes of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The 30-share BSE index climbed 318.74 points or 0.42 per cent to revisit 77,000 level at 77,042.82.
The last time this happened was in 1996.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation. In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.
Gold prices advanced Rs 700 to reach a new lifetime high of Rs 91,950 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday on the back of continued buying by jewellers ahead of wedding season, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Besides, increased tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the US economic slowdown have kept the demand for safe-haven assets intact.
The equity benchmark indices posted their strongest weekly gains in years, driven by bargain hunting and optimism over a reversal in foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows. The Sensex rose 558 points, or 0.7 per cent, on Friday to close at 76,906, while the Nifty 50 gained 160 points to end at 23,350. Over the past five sessions, both indices advanced around 4.3 per cent - marking the Sensex's best weekly performance since July 22, 2022, and the Nifty 50's strongest rally since February 5, 2021.
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
The trigger for international gold prices rising to $3,000 per ounce was Germany's upcoming heavy government borrowing.
From the 30 blue-chip Sensex pack, Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, UltraTech Cement and Reliance Industries were the biggest laggards. In contrast, JSW Steel, Nestle and Titan were the gainers.
Foreign investors have made a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 22,766 crore in the first two weeks of December driven by expectations of rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October -- the worst monthly outflow on record.
The US Fed interest rate decision, inflation data and FIIs are the key factors that are expected to drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Global trends will also be tracked by investors for further cues, they added. "The Indian stock market's future trajectory will be influenced by a blend of global and domestic factors.
In an eventful week ahead, stock market investors will take cues from major events like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the upcoming Union Budget and Q3 earnings, analysts said.
Gold prices rallied Rs 910 to hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 83,750 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday due to heavy buying from jewellers and retailers, according to the All India Sarafa Association. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had settled at Rs 82,840 per 10 grams in the previous trading session.
'If gold's recent surge has increased its allocation beyond 15 per cent in your portfolio, now may be a good time to rebalance.'
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Gold prices rallied by Rs 630 to a lifetime high of Rs 82,700 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday following persistent buying by jewellers and retailers amid strong global trends, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Rallying for the sixth straight session, gold of 99.5 per cent purity appreciated by Rs 630 to hit a lifetime high of Rs 82,330 per 10 grams.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
Equity benchmark Sensex on Thursday plunged about 965 points to crash below the 80,000 level due to heavy selling in global equities after the US Federal Reserve signalled fewer rate cuts next year. Besides, deep losses in consumer durables, banking and IT stocks amid foreign fund outflows added to the gloom, analysts said.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 4,285 crore from Indian equities in the first three trading days of the month driven by apprehensions ahead of the third-quarter earnings season and high valuations of domestic stocks. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
All sectoral indices ended lower. BSE Telecommunication tanked 2.18 per cent, metal (1.77 per cent), auto (1.70 per cent), energy (1.64 per cent), oil & gas (1.59 per cent), commodities (1.39 per cent) and financial services (1.37 per cent) were the major laggards.
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