Analysts believe that investors should look at stocks that hit 52-week lows only if they have a dividend paying track record, are debt-free and have sound fundamentals.
Despite its recent underperformance, gold must be a part of your portfolio.
If there was one event that made the month of August stand out, it was a strengthening of the dollar index to levels last seen only 20 years ago, as the Federal Reserve dispelled all doubts about its intention to continue raising interest rates. Predictably, most currencies suffered against the US unit, with the bulk of the losers belonging to the emerging markets pack. Amid the volatility, the rupee, however, has displayed significant resilience and fared much better than most of its peer currencies.
Indian rupee, which earlier this week touched an all-time low, is likely to remain under pressure and may test new levels as a fallout of the US Federal Reserve indicating more interest rate hikes, experts said. The aggressive rate hikes will dampen demand and increase the possibility of a recession in the US. This could accelerate the pace of capital outflows, weaken the rupee and raise the threat of imported inflation.
The number of draft red herring prospectuses (DRHPs) filed with the markets regulator - Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - jumped nearly fivefold to 145 in 2021-22 (FY22), compared with just 30 in the preceding financial year (2020-21, or FY21). This was on account of companies rushing to take advantage of a favourable market sentiment towards initial public offerings (IPOs), triggered by an influx of new investors, surge in the secondary market, and encouraging performance of newly listed stocks. In fact, DRHPs filed in FY22 was 4x the previous 10-year average and the highest since 2007-08, according to primary market tracker PRIME Database.
'The minimum holding period for equities should be three years.' 'Try goal-based investing.' 'Link your equity portfolios to specific goals such as retirement, purchase of a house or car...'
Experts say companies wanting to launch IPOs will have to scale back their expectations given the fall in valuations.
Investors continue to back-up equity mutual funds in June as such schemes attracted a net inflow of Rs 15,498 crore on strong flows from systematic investment plans despite volatility in the stock market and relentless selling by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). This also marked the 16th straight month of positive inflow in equity schemes. Inflows into equity mutual funds in June was lower compared to the net inflow of Rs 18,529 crore seen in May, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed on Friday.
Domestic equity markets are likely to see volatility in a range-bound trade this week amid geopolitical worries and growing expectations of a sharp hike in interest rates, analysts said. Global trends, inflation data and the last batch of quarterly earnings will drive the markets this week, they said. Besides, the rupee movement, FII investment pattern and Brent crude trends would also be watched by investors.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and ongoing quarterly earnings are some of the major factors that will drive the stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales numbers and the LIC IPO will also remain in focus, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramzan Id). "The market is likely to kick off this week on a sombre note after a sharp fall in the US market then the focus will shift to the outcome of the US FOMC meeting, which is crucial amid record inflation and growth worries.
'Recent underperformance notwithstanding, equities should constitute a major part of investors' financial portfolio.'
Infosys was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 2 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra and NTPC. On the other hand, Maruti, Sun Pharma, HUL and ITC were among the laggards. Nifty rose 122.15 points to 17,343.55.
Bulls might be on the rampage on Dalal Street but lofty valuations of the Indian equities present a reason for concern and the markets could perhaps witness up to 10 per cent correction, according to analysts. Benchmark indices have been on a record-breaking rally lately and August witnessed the stock market reaching many new highs. The BSE benchmark soared over 9 per cent last month.
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies reached an all-time high of Rs 261.73 lakh crore on Thursday, helped by a massive rally in the equities where the benchmark Sensex zoomed 958 points to end at a fresh lifetime peak. The 30-share BSE benchmark jumped 958.03 points or 1.63 per cent to settle at its new closing peak of 59,885.36. During the day, it gained 1,029.92 points to touch an intra-day record high of 59,957.25.
The speed at which he led the central bank in different areas -- ranging from internal reorganisation to inflation fighting, stabilising the currency, taking on rogue corporations, cleaning up bank balance sheets, and opening the sector -- makes one believe that Rajan knew he had only three years to do his job. A fascinating excerpt from Tamal Bandyopadhyay's MUST-READ Roller Coaster: An Affair with Banking.
Bajaj Finance was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, soaring around 8 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, SBI, Bajaj Auto and HDFC Bank. NSE Nifty surged 211.50 points to 14,864.55.
Market benchmark Sensex tumbled over 323 points after an intense last-hour sell-off on Wednesday, triggered by losses mainly in index heavyweights Infosys, Reliance and HDFC.
IndusInd Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 3 per cent, followed by Dr Reddy's, NTPC, Maruti, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel and HDFC. NSE Nifty declined 76.15 points to 15,691.40.
And there have been months when flows have exceeded $3 billion.
Equities went into a tailspin on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank surprised the market with a mid-cycle rate hike in a bid to tame soaring inflation.
M&M led the gainers' pack, spurting 2.76 per cent, followed by ITC, Kotak Bank, L&T, SBI, Bajaj Auto and Nestle India.
'At current valuations, we believe large-caps offer better downside support.' 'Hence, we are suggesting a small tilt towards them.'
'I don't see any major setback for the Indian markets post the US Fed event.'
After rallying over 300 points, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended 169.14 points, or 0.42 per cent, higher at 40,581.71. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty settled 61.65 points, or 0.52 per cent, higher at 11,971.80.
The faster-than-expected rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) shook global financial markets in early 2022. And now the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has lifted commodity prices, with Brent crude oil hitting a 14-year high of $139 a barrel in intraday trade. All these developments have sent the equity markets across the world into a tailspin.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
Battling a sharp surge in inflation, the Reserve Bank is all for a smooth monetary policy response and the desire to have smaller hikes led it to tighten the policy in an off-schedule meet, a source said on Thursday. Inflation has been massively impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and will in due course also reflect the dent caused by Indonesia banning palm oil exports, the source aware of central bank thinking said, indicating that there was no other option but to respond. "The idea is to have a smooth policy response, not to put in large cold turkey responses," the source said, making it clear that the preference is for smaller magnitude responses and not larger ones.
Equity markets will look for directions from global trends, ongoing quarterly earnings and investment patterns of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in a holiday-shortened week ahead and may encounter volatility amid the scheduled monthly derivatives expiry, according to analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday on account of 'Republic Day'. "This week is a holiday-shortened one and it's going to be critical due to the list of events and data that are lined up.
HCL Tech was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 4 per cent, followed by Infosys, Dr Reddy's, TCS, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra and NTPC. NSE Nifty slumped 163.45 points to 14,557.85.
Analysts caution against volatility and recommend buying stocks of companies that are on strong fundamental footing that have been beaten down badly in the recent carnage.
Titan was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding 1.39 per cent, followed by HDFC, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, Asian Paints, SBI, M&M, TCS, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank were among the winners, spurting as much as 3.25 per cent.
'A soft landing of the Indian economy would be a long-term positive for the equity markets.'
Investments by private equity and venture capital funds doubled to a record high of $9.5 billion in July mainly driven by higher investor interest in the e-commerce sector, a report said on Monday. Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) investments stood at $4.1 billion in the year-ago period. The activity was higher by 77 per cent when compared to June's $5.4 billion, the report on monthly PE/VC investment activity by industry lobby IVCA and consultancy firm EY said.
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
'Markets are factoring in a good show by India Inc in Q2.'
Given the economic trends, it might make sense to allocate some savings to gold.
As regards India, FIIs have pumped in over Rs 34,400 crore in the Indian stocks in calendar year 2021.
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
The currency market won't care for our moans, groans, cries and sighs. The rupee will find its own level, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
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