S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 7.1 per cent, citing private consumption, investment, and exports as key drivers. However, the agency also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could strain India's fiscal position due to higher energy prices.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
Moody's Ratings has reduced India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6 per cent, citing subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity due to higher energy costs and global uncertainties.
'Markets never fully lose hope. But an important shift could come if the Strait remains closed -- moving from high prices to no prices.'
The OECD projects India's GDP to grow at 7.6% in the current fiscal year and 6.1% in 2026-27, despite global economic challenges stemming from the Middle East conflict and energy price volatility.
A new survey indicates that Indian employers are planning to increase hiring in the April-June quarter, driven by strong business confidence and domestic demand. The survey also highlights the impact of AI adoption on workforce strategy and the challenges of talent scarcity.
The government is "extremely disappointed" with the latest report of the Moody's rating agency on India's economic outlook. The report, a senior government official said, was highly contradictory and called the rating agency's credibility into question. Referring to the Moody's statement that "India's fiscal strength remains a key weakness in the sovereign credit profile...", the official remarked: "How can my strength be my weakness? Moreover, they are unwilling to have a like-to-like comparison with India."
S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
Infosys Q4 results beat estimates, but weak FY27 guidance triggers cautious brokerage outlook and target price cuts. Should investors worry?
The GDP growth for 2013-14 has been lowered to 5.3%, from 6.4% in April.
India's eight core infrastructure sectors recorded a two-month high growth of 1.7 per cent in April, primarily boosted by strong performances in steel, cement, and electricity production, according to government data.
Gold prices experienced a significant decline in futures trading due to uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions in West Asia and conflicting statements regarding the conflict. Investors are also awaiting key macroeconomic data for further direction on interest rate cuts.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank is closely monitoring whether the supply shock from the West Asia conflict will lead to a generalised price rise, potentially necessitating monetary policy action.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,300 points, driven by escalating crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for austerity measures, which amplified investor concerns about India's economic outlook.
'...the enormous responsibility and faith the youth has put on his shoulders, that he is going to solve their problems.'
Tata Motors' MD and CEO, Girish Wagh, has identified rising diesel prices as the most significant threat to India's commercial vehicle (CV) industry recovery, despite the sector recently surpassing its pre-FY19 wholesale peak. Diesel costs account for 25-50% of a truck operator's total cost of ownership, making any increase a critical concern for fleet economics.
The value of the rupee, which has slipped to the 92 per dollar mark, does not accurately reflect India's stellar economic fundamentals, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to make its highest-ever dividend payment to the government this year, providing a significant fiscal boost to address challenges, including those stemming from the ongoing Middle East crisis.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 3.48 per cent in April, up from 3.40 per cent in March, primarily due to a surge in prices of gold and silver jewellery, as well as certain kitchen staples like tomatoes and cauliflower.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
India's trade with West Asia saw a significant decline of over 28% in April, marking the second consecutive month of contraction. This downturn is attributed to severe shipping disruptions stemming from the ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, particularly impacting the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway.
Outlook for external sector is the most favourable.
Air India has deferred annual salary increments for its staff by at least one quarter and urged a "relentless focus on costs" due to external headwinds like the closure of Pakistan airspace, West Asia conflict, rupee depreciation, and a significant surge in aviation turbine fuel prices, though the airline has assured there will be no layoffs.
Amidst a sharp run-up in gold and silver prices, investors are advised to rebalance their portfolios by booking partial profits in precious metals and reallocating to domestic equities and debt, according to financial experts.
American industry groups sought punitive tariffs on Indian goods at USTR hearings, while Indian officials defended the country's manufacturing growth as demand-led and WTO-compliant.
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
India's electric motorcycle market is experiencing significant growth, with a 28 per cent year-on-year increase in volumes, as new product launches and improved total cost of ownership attract a broader base of riders beyond early adopters.
The gems and jewellery industry anticipates challenging times following the government's decision to increase gold import duty to 15 per cent, a move that exporters warn could fuel the grey market and heighten smuggling risks.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 32 paise to close at 92.83 against the US dollar, influenced by escalating global tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, and the deadline for the RBI's instructions to banks to curb overnight positions.
India is closely monitoring Sri Lanka's decision to offer foreign investors control of an airport near the China-controlled Hambantota port, as it could present a rare opening for Indian firms seeking strategic footholds in the Indian Ocean.
'We believe the truth is in the middle, and that India is at an important crossroads.'
The Economic Survey on Thursday projected the GDP growth in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent in 2026-27, a tad lower than 7.4 per cent estimated in the current fiscal.
Fitch Ratings on Friday said persistently higher oil prices could cause India's retail inflation to rise faster than the expected gradual pace, and lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the first half of financial year 2026-27 (FY27).
The Omicron variant of Covid-19 adds new uncertainties to the global economic outlook but much will depend on its speed of transmission, hospitalisation and death rates, and also the effectiveness of vaccines, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its commentary titled 'Much to Learn About Omicronast', Moody's Analytics said although the variant appears to spread "remarkably quickly", it will be at least two more weeks before more will be known about this new variant. "The Omicron variant of COVID-19 adds new measures of uncertainty to the outlook for the global economy, although it is too soon to adequately quantify that risk.
India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) increased for the fourth consecutive month in February, reaching 2.13 per cent, primarily due to rising prices of food and manufactured goods, according to government data.
Indian equities are experiencing their sharpest rebound in years, with the BSE 500 index rallying 12.1 per cent so far this month, echoing Covid-era recoveries despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and earnings risks.
FMCG major Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) reported a 21 per cent increase in its March quarter consolidated net profit, reaching Rs 2,994 crore, primarily driven by higher volumes and a significant gain from the divestment of its stake in Nutritionalab.
Global energy markets saw a significant correction as oil prices nosedived following Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully reopened, dismantling the 'war-risk' premium that had gripped the market.
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