India can sustain 8 per cent annual GDP growth and the conducive macroeconomic configuration may become a launching pad for a step-up in the country's growth trajectory, said an article on the 'State of Economy' in the central bank's March Bulletin published on Tuesday. Over the period 2021-24, gross domestic product (GDP) growth has averaged above 8 per cent. The global economy is losing steam, with growth slowing in some of the most resilient economies and high frequency indicators, pointing to further levelling in the period ahead, said the article authored by a team led by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra.
Coal India (CIL) produced 89 million tonnes (MT) in March-24, up 6 per cent year on year (Y-o-Y) and offtake was 69 MT, up 7 per cent Y-o-Y. FY24 production was 774 MT, up 10 per cent Y-o-Y. Offtake was 754 MT, up 9 per cent Y-o-Y. CIL targets production of 838 MT in FY25, up 8 per cent Y-o-Y over FY24.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday announced hiking the capital expenditure by 33 per cent to Rs 10 lakh crore for infrastructure development for 2023-24 and will be at 3.3 per cent of the GDP. Presenting the Budget for 2023-24, she said the newly established infrastructure finance secretariat will assist in attracting more private investment. "Capital investment outlay is being increased steeply for the third year in a row by 33 per cent to Rs 10 lakh crore, which would be 3.3 per cent of GDP.
'Policy-sensitive sectors will wait and watch, but policy-agnostic areas will continue based on normal consumption demand.'
Strong performance by its US subsidiary Novelis and better returns in the copper business helped Hindalco Industries post consolidated revenue growth of 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to Rs 54,100 crore in the July-September quarter of 2023-23 (Q2FY24). Novelis' Flat Rolled Products (FRP) volumes grew 6 per cent Q-o-Q to 933,000 tonnes (down 5.2 per cent Y-o-Y) on better North American and European volumes. The consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) declined 2 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 5,610 crore despite lower input costs in India and better Novelis performance.
There is no impediment to normal operations as Tata Motors puts in place the demerger process of its commercial and passenger vehicles businesses. Instead, the demerger would provide greater manoeuvrability for both new entities to operate independently, according to Tata Motors management. While there may not be immediate value unlocking, it will give investors clarity about future growth and the financials across different segments.
The deficit stood over Rs 8 trillion in the first seven months of the current financial year. Non-tax revenues, comprising transfers from the RBI and dividends of the public sector units, shored up the Centre's revenues.
After four years of growth at 40 per cent or more, capital expenditure (capex) by India Inc in the current financial year (2008-09) may drop almost 30 per cent.
There hasn't been any dramatic moment in the first act (the Budget) but nobody would complain. It's par for the course as long as the figures don't change in the main Budget, which will be presented after general elections.
The key risk factors would be anti-incumbency, small vote share swings causing large impact on outcomes and the 2004 example.
Among Sensex shares, Bajaj Finserve, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma, Maruti Suzuki, ITC, and Nestle were the lead gainers. On the other hand, L&T Wipro, IndusInd Bank and TCS and Tata Motors were the lead losers.
There are conflicting views on Delhivery. The logistics player's results for the July-September quarter (Q2FY24) are being interpreted as good by some analysts and disappointing by others. As India's largest listed logistics player, the company stands to benefit from the formalisation across the mostly unorganised logistics space. Delhivery provides solutions to 23,113 customers, including e-commerce marketplaces, direct-to-consumer e-tailers, and enterprises across verticals.
Fundraising through the issuance of shares to qualified institutional investors has seen hectic activity in the first half of the current fiscal year (FY24), with 20 companies mobilising over Rs 18,400 crore, more than four-fold from the year-ago period, on positive investors' sentiments. Moreover, the robust trend of Qualified Institutional Placements (QIPs) in the first half of the fiscal year 2023-24 is expected to persist throughout the second half of the year too, Sanjay Moorjani, Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, told PTI. Prashant Rao, director and head of equity capital markets, Anand Rathi Investment Banking, said that market and investor sentiments play an important role for these issuances.
The hospitality industry has seen plenty of interest since the catastrophic impact of the pandemic, which led to losses in FY21. The hotel industry market cap has more than tripled since 2019 on the combination of a strong earnings rebound and positive surprises, as well as three recent listings. The industry has good tailwinds. The anticipation is, demand for rooms will outrun supply for a few years despite capacity expansions.
Reliance Industries' (RIL's) retail arm, Reliance Retail, is now valued at nearly twice the amount of its decades-old and lucrative oil-to-chemical (O2C) division. Bernstein's latest report on the conglomerate projects a valuation of $112 billion for its retail business, dwarfing the $57 billion valuation of its O2C division. In addition, the research firm valued Jio Platforms, the company's telecom arm, at $77 billion and the renewable energy business at $17 billion.
Tata Power declared encouraging results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of the 2023-23 financial year (FY24). The firm's revenue rose 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 15,210 crore. It was driven by higher sales to distribution companies (discoms) and capacity addition in renewables. Company's adjusted profit after tax (PAT) rose 3 per cent to Rs 906 crore with reported PAT at Rs 1,100 crore on a one-time gain of Rs 235 crore.
Siemens reported solid results in the July-September quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) of 2022-23 (FY23), with the top line growing 25 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 5,808 crore. The operating profit margin stood at 12.1 per cent, led by lower employee costs and other operating expenses. The company follows the October-September financial year.
Seerat Naaz's video appeal to the prime minister last week, which was shared widely on social media, prompted Director of School Education, Jammu, Ravi Shankar Sharma to visit the government school located in the remote Lohai-Malhar block.
Reliance has around 90,000 telecom towers now, half of which are operational and owned by the RIL and rest on lease.
As per the credit rating agency's survey, a whopping 94 per cent of those surveyed viewed inflation and rising interest rates as main threats to Indian debt markets, followed by global sovereign issues (66 per cent) and budget deficit (64 per cent).
India's first $1 trillion company by market capitalisation (mcap) is achievable by 2032 and HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL) are seen as lead contenders, ICICI Securities said in a note on Monday. To achieve this, the shares of both the firms will have to appreciate at least 20 per cent annually for the next decade. ICICI Securities believes this is possible if India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerates to 9 per cent per annum and corporate profitability cycle peaks. "Our calculations suggest that India's first $1 trillion mcap stock could emerge by 2032.
Cement companies witnessed speculative support from investors through FY23 amid hopes of a rebound. After capex announcements in the FY24 Budget, there was further interest due to expectations that government expenditure would boost earnings, besides a generic macro-recovery. Cement earnings were under pressure in FY22 and FY23 due to high raw material and fuel costs; muted demand prevented them passing on the higher cost.
The festive season will mean business for the steel industry as it is the time when automotive and consumer appliance companies bump up demand to prepare for higher sales, experts have said. Ranjan Dhar, chief marketing officer at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), said that bookings by auto and consumer appliance industries are 20 per cent higher ahead of the festive season compared to last year. "While this could be for a couple of months, it could normalise later at approximately 10 per cent," he said.
As a percentage of the aggregate Budget expenditure, it is 12 per cent.
'More than investors, fund houses, and advisors have raised caution and limited flows on small-and mid-caps.'
All eyes will be on whether Sitharaman will deliver a populist budget leaving more money in hands of the common man or push the reform agenda by staying on the fiscal glide path to lower the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26.
The engineering and construction (E&C) sector delivered an excellent performance in the last two financial years (FY2021-22 or FY22 and FY23's nine-months) and there's reason to believe that FY24 will also see outperformance. The sector has emerged from the pandemic with stronger balance sheets and more rational cost structures. It has a big order book and it should see new order flows accelerate in FY24.
Investors shunned shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) on Friday as they feared that the government's decision to cut retail prices of petrol and diesel could hurt the companies' profit margins in the near term. On Thursday, the government announced that OMCs will reduce pump prices of petrol and diesel after a record 22 months, making them cheaper by Rs 2 per litre in the national capital. The changes were effective from Friday.
On June 30, mining and metals giant Vedanta, announced that it had decided to initiate a strategic review of its steel and steel-making raw material businesses. The review would begin immediately and evaluate a broad range of options, including but not limited to a potential strategic sale of some or all of the steel businesses, the company said in its stock exchange filing. The signs have been there - approaches had been made to steel players over the past year. Last December, Anil Agarwal, chairman Vedanta group, told Business Standard that the steel plant capacity was about 3 million tonnes (mt).
Crude and gas supply concerns have eased amid reports that Israel and Hamas have struck a peace deal. The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand may drop slightly in calendar 24 but Opec probably has enough pricing power to maintain $80/ barrel Brent prices. Russia's share of India's crude imports remained strong at about 35 per cent in September 2023.
Capex plans for the next six months imply a 20 per cent increase in calendar 2010.
Analysts assert that Vedanta Group's plan to demerge India-listed Vedanta Limited into six listed entities will not resolve the debt problem of its promoter entity, Vedanta Resources (VRL). They suggest that additional asset sales or stake sales by promoters will be necessary to repay the debt. Vedanta is already considering the divestment of its iron-steel division and its copper plant.
It would be interesting to see what the government proposes to investors.
The S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices have managed to stay afloat in a volatile January that saw the frontline indices hit their respective 52-week high levels and then slip. While the S&P BSE Sensex has lost over 2 per cent thus far in January, the S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices have gained nearly 2.5 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively during this period.
The company's investments in telecom business reached 15-20% of capital employed.
'India is showing a reasonable amount of resilience, but we are still living in a world that is quite fragile.' 'That's why we hope that the government will continue to invest significantly in public capex so that we are able to ride through this cycle till the private sector is able to play its part in investing and adding to the capex cycle.'
The rising goods and services tax (GST) and personal income-tax collections may bolster the Narendra Modi government's ability to announce new schemes or enhance existing ones.
Earnings growth trajectory for India's capital goods firms is likely to stay buoyant for the December 2023-ended quarter (Q3 FY24), said analysts. Guidance on margins, ordering activity in an election year and export-related demand would be key monitorables. Brokerages - Motilal Oswal, Nuvama, Kotak Institutional Equities and Prabhudas Lilladher - estimated revenue growth for their capital goods universe to be 11-16 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
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