The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
Benchmark rate for new loans to be lower by 80-90 bps from Friday; move could increase competition but hit commercial papers.
If one is an existing borrower or looking for a loan, there's reason for cheer.
Admitting that credit growth is "very low" given the size and growth rate of the economy, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday said for both the numbers to match, "the very very wide output gap" has to close. The central bank also clarified that low credit growth does not necessarily mean low credit flow to the economy, or choking of credit to the system, as bank credit growth numbers that the central bank publishes regularly represent only the outstanding credit in the system. Output gap means due to poor demand conditions, companies are unable run their plant at full installed capacity or, in a larger sense, an economy is not producing optimally as the demand is missing.
RBI seen cutting repo rate 25 bps on Sept 29, says a poll
Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda said on Monday they will reduce their prime lending rate by 50 and 75 basis points, respectively with effect from January 1. Besides, PNB announced a reduction in its peak deposit rate by 100 basis points to 8.5 per cent for deposits of one year to less than three years beginning new year, the state-run lender said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.
The deposit rates are up by one percentage points.
India imports 1.2 billion barrels of oil, and oil prices are falling, falling...
According to the global investment banking major, the RBI will continue to gradually shift its focus to reviving growth from exclusively fighting inflation since 2010 and is likely to cut rates in June by 25bp, and by 50bp in March 2014 quarter.
'The snakes and ladders game will continue till the consolidation process is complete simply because we don't know how bad the scene is, with some of the banks being merged,' says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
A day after its bigger rival ICICI Bank cut its lending rate, the third-largest private lender, Axis Bank, on Friday lowered its base rate by 0.10 per cent to 9.85 per cent, effective June 30.
The FPI holding in India's top 100 companies, which are part of the Nifty 100 index, declined to 24.23 per cent on average at the end of March this year, from a high of 27.5 per cent at the end of March 2021. This is the lowest FPI holdings in India's top listed companies in at least three years. A general sell-off by FPIs has weighed on stock prices and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex is down 8.5 per cent, from its 52-week high made in October 2021. Most analysts expect FPI flows to remain weak in FY23 as well, given rising bond yields in the US and an expected earnings slowdown in India due to high inflation and commodity prices.
Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse expects the economy to continue to show positive surprises and record up to 9 per cent growth in the next fiscal. For the current financial year too, the brokerage anticipates growth to be higher than the consensus forecast of 8.4-9.5 per cent, and printing in at around 10.5 per cent. As a policy, Credit Suisse does not provide absolute growth numbers in its forecast.
Analysts have started talking about at least a 25 bps cut immediately.
However, financial flows to the economy remained constrained because of decline in the amount of equity finance raised from the capital markets and stress in the NBFC sector, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman pointed out.
The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday hiked the cash reserve ratio by 25 basis points.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
The move by the second largest private sector lender will give better returns on fixed deposits, but will also make loans more expensive for existing customers.
On the Sensex chart, HDFC, L&T, SBI, Axis Bank, Bajaj FinServ and HDFC Bank were major laggards - dropping up to 2.62 per cent. NSE Nifty closed with a loss of 164.85 points at 15,080.75.
Airtel CEO said, the 5G ecosystem is yet to develop in India and the prices are very high. Telecom companies including Vodafone Idea (VI) and Reliance Jio have also said that the current prices are exorbitant.
The economy is likely to register a 9.5 per cent growth this fiscal over 7.3 per cent contraction last year, as the ongoing recovery is faster and more credible than earlier foreseen, according to a foreign brokerage report. It will gather more momentum in the second half of the current fiscal, but will slow down to 7.7 per cent next financial year, it added. The government has budgeted for a 10.5 per cent growth this fiscal, but the Reserve Bank has scaled it down to 9.5 per cent.
Nestle India was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding around 2 per cent, followed by SBI, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, HUL and Dr Reddy's. NSE Nifty slipped 20.10 points to 15,670.25.
While margins contracted by 30 basis points on y-o-y basis, they fell a sharper 120 basis points on a sequential basis to 16.8 per cent. Profitability was impacted adversely due to subdued demand, tepid realisations in commodity sectors, and negative operating leverage.
Economists expect the Reserve Bank to hike its key short-term lending and borrowing rates on July 27 to tame rising inflation, which is already in double-digits.
The economy faces more downside risks now as economic disruptions arising from the second wave are likely to stabilise only from July, warned the Swiss brokerage USB Securities. Last month, the brokerage had cut its GDP forecast by 150 bps to 10 per cent for FY22, which though is much higher than the consensus projections by others with some pegging it at as low as 8 per cent. Though adverse impacts on sequential growth is less severe than in the June 2020 quarter when it plunged by 23.9 per cent, as lockdowns are more targeted and localised and households and businesses have adjusted to the new normal now, still, it is increasingly possible that normalcy returns only by July as against our baseline assumption of June.
Retail inflation inched up to 4.48 per cent in October due to an uptick in food prices, government data showed on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was at 4.35 per cent in September and 7.61 per cent in October 2020.
India's widening current account deficit (CAD), driven by the massive spike in commodity prices led by crude oil, is set to put pressure on the fragile recovery, warns a brokerage report that has revised upwards its CAD forecast to $45 billion or 1.4 per cent of GDP by March. According to a report by British brokerage Barclays, the worries arise from the fact that the trade deficit has been jumping continuously since July. From an average monthly trade deficit of $12 billion till June, it has jumped to $16.8 billion in July-October, with September showing the highest-ever trade deficit on record at $22.6 billion, the report said.
SBI was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, spurting over 2 per cent, followed by ICICI Bank, Nestle India, IndusInd Bank, M&M, Bajaj Auto and Maruti. NSE Nifty advanced 135.55 points to 14,819.05.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
Indian bonds remained volatile over the past week on uncertainties over the maiden offshore sovereign bonds issuance, according to a report by DBS Group Research.
Over a five-year period, the benefit of a sharp drop in interest rates would mean saving Rs 76,880 -- a significant number. But if the rate cuts are slimmer, say 25 bps or the number of years left is barely one or two years, shifting may not make too much sense.
The implementation of MCLR from April 1 has already led to a rate cut of 10 basis points on home loans by the country's largest bank, State Bank of India, and others.
Home loan rate for new customer is 9.9 per cent.
If the central banks act harshly now, the markets will crash and then rally. If they are hesitant, the pain will be prolonged, predicts Debashis Basu.
About 24 fund houses saw a decline in their debt AUMs in the past one year.
"The economy is going through a very difficult patch and business confidence has plummeted. New investments have slowed down," Assocham President Rajkumar Dhoot said during his interaction with RBI Governor D Subbarao ahead of the central bank's monetary policy review scheduled on April 17.
The hardening of the Wholesale Price Index follows an uptick in retail inflation.
With this reduction, the one-year MCLR, to which most of its loan prices are linked, will come down to 8 per cent, the bank said in a statement.
Insurer likely to support Ratan Tata; reduction in stake might have been profit booking.
