Despite sharp interest rate cuts expected in this financial year amid easy liquidity conditions, state-run banks are treading cautiously on their loan growth projections for FY26. Most large banks are projecting loan growth at 11-13 per cent, almost similar to the previous financial year.
The gap between credit and deposit growth in the banking system is expected to decline sharply to 80 basis points (bps) in the next financial year from an average of 386 bps over the FY22-Q3FY25 period, according to rating agency India Ratings. This would be against the backdrop of sharp moderation in the incremental loan deposit ratio (LDR) of the Indian banking system to 85 per cent in February 2025 from 117-118 per cent in the same month of 2024.
Net profit of 19 listed banks is likely to decline by 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) for the quarter ended March (Q4FY25) mainly due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) as a result of rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to analysts' estimates. Additionally, loan growth is expected to further slowdown amid low demand in certain secured products, stress in the unsecured segment, and a high cost to deposit (CD) ratio across the system.
Jio Finance, a wholly owned subsidiary of Jio Financial Services, is likely to delay its maiden bond issue of Rs 3,000 crore, originally scheduled for this month. The decision comes amid expectations of softening yields in April because the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) is widely expected to cut the policy repo rate by another 25 basis points, sources said.
To ease the potential liquidity stress, the Reserve Bank on Friday slashed Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 4 per cent, a move that would unlock Rs 1.16 lakh crore bank funds. The RBI on May 4, 2022 had raised CRR to 4.5 per cent from 4 per cent in an off-cycle Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, with effect from May 21 the same year.
Banks are likely to see their net interest margins (NIM) - broadly the difference between interest earned on loans and paid on deposits - shrink by another 30 basis points (bps) over the next few quarters. After hitting a peak of 3.3 per cent in the third quarter (Q3) of the financial year ended March 31, 2023 (FY23), NIMs have been on a downward trajectory, touching 3.13 per cent in Q2FY24 on higher cost of funds, according to capital markets firm CARE Ratings. Banks are still grappling with the Reserve Bank of India's policy rate increases - that have made deposits costlier as the interest payable to customers has increased - and the regulatory actions on unsecured lending.
With short-term rates firming up due to tight liquidity conditions, Indian corporates are opting to borrow long term to take advantage of the attractive rates by locking them in these uncertain times. The banking system has a liquidity deficit of over Rs 2 trillion. According to market participants, engineering conglomerate Larsen & Toubro (L&T) raised Rs 1,500 crore through 10-year bonds in December 2024.
'The only solution is for the government to allow us to charge a low controlled MDR of 25 bps on UPI P2M transactions only for merchants with more than a Rs 40 lakh turnover.'
Call centres, once the engine room of India's BPO exports, are evolving too. Depending on the complexity, 30 to 50 per cent of voice and chat volumes are now handled by conversational AI.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
LTIMindtree's (LTIM's) December quarter revenue, at $1.139 billion, was up 1.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) (5.6 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y) in constant currency (CC) terms, marginally ahead of expectations.
Shriram Finance's (SHFL's) profit after tax (PAT) rose 10 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 2,140 crore in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2024-25 (Q4FY25).
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Saturday said that the market forces decide the value of rupee with respect to the US dollar and the central bank is not worried about day-to-day movement of the currency value.
Defying the bearish sentiment in the markets on Monday, ICICI Bank's share price rose by 2 per cent, reaching an intraday high of Rs 1,234.4 per share on the BSE. With a 1.5 per cent gain at the close, the stock emerged as the top performer on both the BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty 50 indices.
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) declined after the information technology (IT) major reported a 1.3 per cent sequential drop in net profit for the March quarter, prompting several brokerages to cut their target prices. The TCS stock fell as much as 1.26 per cent during the day to Rs 3,205 per share.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and NTPC were among the biggest laggards among Sensex shares. Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and ITC were among the gainers.
Domestic passive mutual fund (MF) schemes will have to sell around Rs 1,500 crore worth of ITC Hotels shares once the demerged entity lists on the exchanges, according to estimates. Passive MF schemes - especially those tracking the Nifty 50 and Sensex - will have to offload their holdings in ITC Hotels as the stock will be excluded from the indices.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
Although a one-off tax provision negatively impacted the bottom line, HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC) posted an excellent operational performance in Q2FY25. The equity quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) growth was 14.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). And, equity AUM market share rose 50 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 12.9 per cent.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
Indian Hotels reported strong consolidated revenue growth of 29 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), led by revenue per available room, or RevPAR, growth of 15 per cent. The average room rate, or ARR, was up 13 per cent and occupancy improved 120 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y on a standalone business. Like-for-like revenue growth was 15 per cent Y-o-Y, while TajSats (airline catering) grew by 18 per cent Y-o-Y.
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU) disappointed the market even though some analysts said the Q3FY25 results were in line. Most analysts cut margin estimates. The insurer reported M9FY25 growth of 8.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in value of new business (VNB) premium to Rs 1,575 crore, while total annual premium equivalent (APE) grew 27.2 per cent to Rs 6,910 crore.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
With retail inflation surprising on the upside, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to increase the repo rate by 35-50 basis points (bps) in the review scheduled for September 28-30. According to economists, the central bank will continue to focus on bringing inflation down even though economic growth has remained sluggish. Data released by the government on Monday showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased by 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August, thus, staying above the upper tolerance limit of the central bank for all the eight months of 2022.
The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.3 per cent in the current fiscal year, a tad lower than the government's estimate of 6.4 per cent, owing to several factors such as weak demand, SBI research report said on Wednesday. According to the first advance estimates (FAE) of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), released on Tuesday, India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, because of poor showing by the manufacturing and subdued investments.
The four public sector general insurance companies -- New India Assurance, United India Insurance, Oriental Insurance, and National Insurance Company -- have lost 800 basis points (bps) in market share in last five years to their private counterparts, the data from the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Irdai) revealed. In 2018-19, the four had a cumulative market share of 40.04 per cent, with New India Assurance having a market share of 14 per cent and United India Insurance with a market share of 9.63 per cent. But, gradually in the past five years, these state-backed firms have lost their market share to private sector players, due to the declining health of their business.
After declining to a three-year low in FY24, the private sector investment is expected to fall further in the current financial year, India Ratings said in a research note.. The investments in the private sector are likely to plummet to below 11 per cent of the GDP in FY25, based on the trends from the latest national accounts data and company fillings, it noted.
Retail inflation slipped to seven-month low of 3.61 per cent in February mainly due to easing prices of vegetables, eggs, and other protein-rich items, creating space for the RBI to go for another cut in interest rate next month.
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
'However, this process will take some time. Depending on the approval timeline, it may span a few quarters.'
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Dabur's performance in the July-September quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY25) was weak but in line with consensus. Consolidated revenue declined 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to a temporary adjustment in General Trade (GT) inventory. Indian revenue declined 7.6 per cent, while international business grew 13 per cent Y-o-Y in constant currency (CC) terms.
Bank credit growth is expected to moderate this financial year after a robust 16 per cent estimated for last financial year, driven by strong economic activity and retail credit demand. There are three reasons for this: a statistical high-base effect given the strong growth seen last financial year, revision in risk weights by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and relatively slower economic activity.
'We have opened 100 branches in the last one and a half years. Our manpower is also in place.'
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
Information technology (IT) stocks ended at their lowest in nearly nine months after a fresh bout of selling, triggered by concerns over a recession in the US, the key market for domestic software exporters. A report by Morgan Stanley citing risks to growth also weighed on sentiment.
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