'Unless the economy is sound in the country how can only three movies collected so much business in a single day?'
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
Naina Lal Kidwai, group general manager and country head for HSBC India, does not seem to be too perturbed about the slowdown or the rising delinquency levels.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
US recession is likely to help Indian economy as it wil attract more global investments, said Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath.
Interrupting a two-month streak of decline, outward foreign direct investment (FDI) rose sequentially to $1.85 billion in July over $1.07 billion in June, an increase of 73 per cent. However, it was lower than the $2.18 billion in July last year, according to the Reserve Bank of India data. Outbound FDI, expressed as financial commitment, has three components - equity, loans, and guarantees.
Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS') contribution to the overall market capitalisation (mcap) of listed Tata group companies has slipped below 50 per cent for the first time in over a decade. This has happened amid a rally in other Tata stocks, led by smaller companies, even as TCS, the group's largest company by mcap, has lagged. In recent quarters, Tata's listed firms have emerged as leading performers on the bourses, with the group's combined mcap crossing Rs 30 trillion early last week - a first for a private sector conglomerate.
Avenue Supermarts, the operator of DMart retail chain, reported good results for the July-September quarter (Q2FY24) with strong earnings before interest before interest, taxes and depreciation (Ebitda) and profit before tax (PBT) growth, but lower PAT due to higher tax incidence. The operating margin improved, and like-to-like store sales growth was strong. Average bill value also increased though this may be a seasonal effect to some extent. Analysts are assuming this means the slowdown in retail may have bottomed out.
UltraTech Cement's third quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q3FY24) performance saw a combination of 6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) volume growth and 8 per cent revenue growth coupled with better realisations per tonne. The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) stood at Rs 3,250 crore and Ebitda per tonne was Rs 1,191. Profit after tax (PAT) was reported at Rs 1,780 crore. Other income dipped and interest costs rose.
Amid current geopolitical challenges and a slowdown in global growth, veteran emerging market investor Mark Mobius called India a safe haven for investors, backed by a stable government. The renowned investor, who is excited about the opportunities available in India, said the country is now the second largest in the portfolio of Mobius Capital Partners after Taiwan. Calling India a "land of opportunities and innovation", he said that his optimism about India is driven by the stable government and young demographic, with an average age of 27 years.
In April, the inflows into equity schemes dropped 60% compared to the previous month to Rs 4,608 crore, the lowest since Sept 2016.
'In the next 15-20 years, India will have at least 50 new (AI-driven) billion-dollar companies that are going to solve problems for the largest companies around the world.'
The chemicals sector's recovery could be delayed until FY25 if the current trends of weak demand and flat pricing continue. Following a subdued September quarter, the revenue and profit performance of listed chemicals companies are anticipated to fall short of initial expectations of an improvement. Despite some price stability, the demand trajectory remains uncertain.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to a 4-month low of 8.1 per cent in September 2023 against 8.3 per cent a year ago, according to the official data released on Tuesday. The growth rate in the output of refinery products, fertiliser, cement and electricity during the month under review has decelerated, while it was negative in the case of crude oil. The previous low was in May, when the growth rate of these sectors stood at 5.2 per cent.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Indian IT companies are undeterred by talks of a US slowdown.
The Q1FY24 earnings season has started on a dismal note for corporate India. The early-bird companies' revenue growth has been at a 10-quarter low, while the combined earnings of non-BFSI (banking, financial services, and insurance) companies seem to have hit the ceiling. The numbers suggest corporate India is entirely dependent on BFSI companies and the IT services sector to drive growth in revenue and profit while other sectors are showing signs of stagnation.
To mitigate the impact of the economic slowdown on their businesses, a majority of Indian firms have implemented significant cost reductions and are reviewing their operational effectiveness, a PwC survey says.
From its lows in December, the stock of Tata Motors is up about 15 per cent. The gains came on the back of better than expected December volumes in its UK-based subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). This coupled with gradual recovery in the global passenger vehicle demand, improving profitability due to product mix and lower commodity costs are expected to be key positives for the company.
He said the government has offered enhanced tax breaks to entities that spend on in-house research and development.
The sectors that received most of the investment during this period included manufacturing, financial services, business services, computer services, electricity, and other energy sectors.
China's top respiratory disease expert Zhong Nanshan warned of a small COVID-19 spike in the winter and reminded the elderly and vulnerable populations to get vaccinated as soon as possible, state-run Global Times reported.
"The need of the hour is to go back to the man-centred economics, the village-centred approach that forms the core of the Gandhian philosophy. This means following the Gandhian ethic based on simplicity, self-sufficiency and self-reliance to be achieved through gram rajya, sarvodaya and satyagraha, which has ahimsa as its core," Professor Veena Sikri, former Indian high commissioner to Malaysia and Bangladesh, said in a lecture organised by the Mahatma Gandhi Centre.
As each month's economic numbers roll in, the slowdown gets more serious; and each month it gets clearer than before that government spokesmen who keep predicting an upturn are whistling in the dark.
'We are engaging in substantial open market sales of both wheat and rice to control food inflation; special measures of market intervention in vegetables, pulses and oil seeds were also taken to cushion the impact.'
One million more go globe trotting in 2008-09.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
Info Edge (India) reported a good fourth quarter for the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) given depressed conditions in the Key IT segment. The billing growth of 13.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in recruitment was well ahead of market expectations. There was solid growth in realisations (up 5.5 per cent) as well as unique customers (up 7.7 per cent).
Addressing the BRICS investment seminar in Mumbai ahead of the 5-nation Summit in Goa on October 15-16, Jaitley said the government has put FDI on automatic route in almost 90 per cent of the areas that are eligible for foreign direct capital.
In value terms, India's exports to that country grew 37.3 per cent in 2011-12, to $34.7 billion, according to data released recently.
The companies' combined net profit declined by 10.1 per cent y-o-y during June '19 quarter against 26.2 per cent y-o-y growth a year ago.
According to ICRA, even in a high-growth scenario, wherein the second half of FY20 sees the incremental bank credit rise to Rs 6.5-7 trn, there will still be a 40-45% year-on-year decline.
"There is growing worldwide concern that economic slowdown could lead to a parallel slowdown in environmental progress, with governments less willing to advocate hard steps essential for reducing greenhouse emission," Pachauri, head of the United Nation's Nobel Prize-winning scientific panel said, in an article published in the Guardian.
Households may be feeling the pinch of higher inflation but corporate India is enjoying record high margins and profits. The combined quarterly net profit of listed companies scaled a new high in the April-June 2023 quarter owing to a sharp rise in operating and net profit. The expansion in margins more than compensated for the slowdown in revenue growth, which slipped into single digits in Q1FY24 after a gap of nine quarters.
While several key economic legislations, including insurance and PFRDA bills, are pending in Parliament, the government had to recently put on hold its decision to open the multi-brand retail sector to foreign investors.
'Gold prices thrive on volatility and more so when the stock markets trend downward.'
Backed by technology banks are expanding the branch network - and adding more to the workforce.
Attendance at the Singapore Grand Prix, one of the most popular races on the calendar fell this year, hurt by a slowdown in the local and global economy.
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