Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday cut India's economic growth forecast for current fiscal year to 7 per cent, but said the domestic demand-led economy will be less impacted by the global slowdown. S&P had in September projected the Indian economy to grow 7.3 per cent in 2022-23 and 6.5 per cent in next fiscal year (2023-24). "The global slowdown will have less impact on domestic demand-led economies such as India... India's output will expand 7 per cent in fiscal year 2022-2023 and 6 per cent in next fiscal year," S&P Global Ratings Asia-Pacific chief economist Louis Kuijs said.
'This can eventually start the end of the current market frenzy, which has lasted for a full year.'
Eighty per cent, or 60 of the 75 companies that made their debut on the mainboard this financial year, ended their listing day with gains.
India's manufacturing sector growth climbed to a four-month high in January as a sharper upturn in new orders boosted output growth amid mild cost inflation, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) recovered from an 18-month low of 54.9 in December to 56.5 in January. The latest reading highlighted the strongest improvement in the health of the sector since last September.
While the markets have factored in a number close to 350 for the BJP and almost 400 for the NDA, 50 seats fewer could trigger a market correction
The Adani group is in advanced talks with top sovereign funds based in West Asia to raise up to $2.6 billion for its airport expansion and green hydrogen projects. The group, which expects to close the ongoing financial year ending March with Rs 80,000 crore of Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation), has held a series of road shows in London, Dubai, and Singapore with potential investors, briefing them about their future growth plans. The group's flagship, Adani Enterprises, may dilute part of its stake in the airport-holding firm and/or the green hydrogen business to these funds, which are keen to invest in the Indian infrastructure sector, said a source close to the development.
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said about half of the Indian companies that it rates are getting a boost in their core profitability from rupee depreciation. "Much of our rated India corporate portfolio has sizable US-dollar linked revenue and, therefore, is not exposed to rupee depreciation. "This encompasses entities in the IT, metals, and chemicals sectors. About half of the firms we rate are getting an EBITDA boost from currency weakening," the US-based rating agency said in a report.
Mutual fund bets in their own schemes are nearing the Rs 1 trillion mark. The total value of sponsor and associate investments across all categories of schemes touched Rs 95,058 crore in February, according to a Business Standard analysis of data from industry body the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). This represents a 28.9 per cent increase over March 2023.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
The Indian services sector growth touched a six-month high in December, supported by a robust intake of new work and favourable market conditions, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 56.4 in November to 58.5 in December, highlighting the strongest rate of expansion since mid-2022. For the 17th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold.
HDFC Bank's latest shareholding data showed that the room for foreign investment has fallen just 5 basis points short of the threshold set by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to fully include the stock in its indices. Currently, the index provider has applied an adjustment factor of 0.5 since the foreign room is less than 25 per cent. Removal of the adjustment factor will result in inflows of a massive $4.8 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) into HDFC Bank, according to Brian Freitas, a New Zealand-based analyst with Periscope Analytics.
'India's fundamentals are a lot better (than those of other emerging market economies).' 'India will suffer (witness a fall in its stock market) what I call the second order effect.' 'And the second order will happen when these funds (belonging to macro and hedge fund investors and which have leveraged Japanese yen-carry trades), because they lose money elsewhere as lot of their positions were financed by borrowing Japanese yen, will have to book profits in investment destinations where they are making money, including in markets like India.' 'They (these investors) will have to effectively sell in countries like India and which is the consequence (the crash in equity markets) that Indian markets might see.'
The growth momentum in India's manufacturing sector was maintained in February, with new orders and output increasing at similar rates to January, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 55.3 in February, little-changed from 55.4 in January. The February PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 20th straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 indicates contraction.
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank and Maruti were the major laggards. IndusInd Bank, ITC, Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India were among the winners.
Active largecap funds, which have the toughest job in terms of outperforming the benchmark, did better in 2023 as their bets in the mid and smallcap stocks paid off.
Do not, however, enter expecting quick returns.
'It is advisable to stay away from the markets for now and buy only on a dip.'
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said there will not be any significant direct financial spillover risks because of the problems being faced by the Adani group, though there can be some secondary impact such as banks undertaking extra due diligence while giving loans to corporate. S&P senior director (infrastructure & utilities ratings), Abhishek Dangra said as per external estimates, the exposure of the banking sector to Adani group companies is less than 1 per cent and also the credit ratings of the firms are not at 'distress level'.
Despite discounts on Russian crude oil - which fell to the lowest since the Ukraine war began - and the rising sanctions, import volumes from the country will remain stable for now or at least till July, said refinery officials. "There is an appetite for Russian crude, and shipments are not expected to taper off beyond this point unless something major happens. "Talks are on, and buying will continue," an official at a major refinery said.
Stocks of small- and mid-cap companies continued to gain ground in July, notwithstanding analysts sounding caution on these two market segments given the sharp run thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). Sanjeev Prasad, co-head of Kotak Institutional Equities, in a note co-authored with Anindya Bhowmik and Sunita Baldawa in June-end, had cautioned against the sharp run in small- and mid-caps. "We do not see any particular reason for the excitement in small- and mid-cap stocks.
Indian economy is expected to clock an average growth rate of 6.7 per cent till 2026-27 fiscal driven by domestic consumption, S&P Global Ratings senior Economist (Asia Pacific) Vishrut Rana said on Wednesday. He said the economic growth in the current fiscal is expected to come in around 6 per cent, lower than 7.2 per cent clocked in 2022-23. "We are seeing some headwinds from the trade side which is affecting activity and that is one of the factors that is affecting growth this year," Rana said at a webinar.
India's defence sector presents an ordering opportunity worth $138 billion between fiscal years 2023-24 (FY24) and FY32, said a latest note by Nomura, which has initiated coverage on two defence-related players - Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) and Bharat Electronics (BEL) - with a 'buy' rating. The research and broking house sees an upside potential of 28 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively in these two stocks from the current levels.
The move to demerge the hotel business into a separate entity by ITC has brought back focus on hotel stocks, which have already seen a good run thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). Analysts believe there could be more gains in store over the next one year for the stocks in this sector, but suggest investors put in money on a correction only from a long-term perspective. Hotel stocks, according to A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital, have seen a good run as travel picked up post Covid in India. Not only have the room rents increased, the occupancy, too, has surged.
'Investors need to be stock specific and should not rush to buy stocks at the current levels.'
The share of foreign loans in total Adani group debt portfolio dropped to 61 per cent by September 2023 from 63 per cent as of March 2023, as the group repaid part of its foreign loans and refinanced part of older loans. The share of Indian lenders, on the other hand, rose to 39 per cent in the total debt pie in September 2023 from 37 per cent in March after a report by US-based short seller Hindenburg Research in January last year, which led to volatility in the share prices of group companies. The group's total debt remained static at Rs 2.26 trillion in the same period.
The stock of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has been touching successive all-time highs on the bourses and, over the past year, gained 81 per cent. While the S&P BSE Auto Index has not performed poorly, registering gains of 73 per cent, it still trails the company by 800 basis points (bps) during this period. There are multiple reasons why investors are beating a path to M&M's counter.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Bajaj Auto's market capitalisation (market cap) hit Rs 2 trillion mark for the first time. The stock of the two and three-wheeler major rallied 6 per cent to hit a new high of Rs 7,420 on the BSE in Tuesday's (January 9) intraday trade after its board approved Rs 4,000 crore share buyback at Rs 10,000 per share. The stock ended the day at Rs 7,093.75, up 1.55 per cent and its market cap a shade above Rs 2 trillion.
India's manufacturing sector activity rose to a 13-month high in December, supported by healthy inflows of new business and strong demand conditions, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 57.8 in December, up from 55.7 in November, as business conditions improved to the greatest extent in over two years. The December PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 18th straight month.
Even as Srini Pallia, a Wipro veteran, is set to take charge as the chief executive officer (CEO) of the company, analysts expect the stock's underperformance to continue in the near-future. This, they believe, will be on the back of likely loss of market share, and difficult business environment. "We expect Wipro to underperform peers on growth once again in FY25 as channel checks and media reports suggest Wipro is losing share with select clients across multiple verticals.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7 per cent from 6.5 per cent earlier on buoyant domestic demand and higher capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, however, flagged protracted geopolitical turmoil and global economic fragmentation as risks to the growth outlook. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in Friday's monetary policy statement.
India's manufacturing sector activity moderated in January amid slower increase in total sales, and headcounts were broadly unchanged amid sufficient staff numbers to cope with current requirements, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from December's recent high of 57.8 to 55.4 in January, as factory orders and production rose at sharp, albeit slower, rate. The January PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 19th straight month.
Stocks of public sector undertakings (PSUs) have been on fire in the past year as investors cheered an improvement in key operating metrics and embraced counters of these state-owned enterprises, analysts suggest. The S&P BSE PSU Index has gained over 90 per cent in the past year, rising much higher than the S&P BSE Sensex, which has rose nearly 19 per cent during this period, according to ACE Equity data. The BSE PSU Index, reports show, has delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28 per cent (including dividends reinvestments) over five years and risen by almost 60 per cent in the past year.
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
Investors shunned shares of Bajaj Finance on Friday, a day after the non-banking financial company (NBFC) reported a sharp contraction in its net interest margin (NIM) for the March quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (Q4FY24). The losses accounted for a fifth of the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex's 609-point loss. Most brokerages have tamed their earnings expectations for the next couple of quarters, after the management said it expected the pressure on NIMs to continue in the near term.
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