Motilal Oswal, chairman and managing director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, tells Puneet Wadhwa that with Moody's upgrading India's sovereign rating and earnings growth coming back, the country will remain a hot destination for foreign investors.
The stock of commercial vehicle (CV) company Ashok Leyland is up 46 per cent in the past three months, gaining despite worries about a slowdown in sales volume. Brokerages have a mixed view on the country's second-largest medium and heavy commercial vehicle manufacturer. The company reported steady March quarter results and its valuation, focus on growth and medium-term prospects are positive, but some brokerages are cautious, given near-term demand concerns and the risk of competition increasing in the industry.
India Inc has reported a muted start to the financial year 2024-25, with a decline in net earnings and a modest single-digit uptick in revenues. An analysis of 488 companies that have released their results for the June 2024 quarter reveals a 1.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) drop in combined net profit -- the weakest performance in the past seven quarters. In stark contrast, the combined net profit of these companies experienced a 13.6 per cent Y-o-Y increase in the previous quarter (Q4FY24) and a 65.2 per cent Y-o-Y rise in Q1FY24.
Shares of healthcare services major Max Healthcare Institute have gained over 23 per cent since the start of this month and the stock crossed the Rs 1 trillion mark on September 24. On September 25, it closed 989.85 apiece at the NSE. The gains were cornered on the back of a strong outlook for the sector and aggressive expansion plans for the chain led by acquisitions and organic growth.
A key indicator of corporate efficiency may now be better than at any time since the turn of the millennium. The net working capital cycle - a crucial measure that tracks the time a company takes to convert current assets like inventory into sales and then collect the money from customers - has seen remarkable improvement. According to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the average company needed nearly 90 days to complete this cycle in 1999-2000.
'Investors should do proper analysis before putting in their money in NFOs as most new launches are in the high-risk thematic space.'
'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) has made the most of the stock market boom by reducing stakes in all its top conglomerates during the financial year 2023-2024 (FY24). However, even after reducing exposure, the value of its remaining stake has gone up substantially across all groups, according to data collated from stock exchange filings.
Movement in the stock market this week will largely be driven by global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Equity benchmark indices, which are on a dream run for the past several days, will also track trading in global oil benchmark Brent crude and movement of rupee against the US dollar. "The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is scheduled for mid-September, but before that, the market will be closely watching upcoming US economic data.
With the absence of any major immediate domestic trigger in sight, investors would focus on global trends and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the market. "This week is a truncated one with no major triggers expected. However, we anticipate sector-specific movements amid budget-related buzz.
From its highs over the past month, the stock of Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Healthcare fell 7 per cent before recovering this week. The stock has been an underperformer over the last year and has traded flat over this period.
Indian companies are generating more cash than ever. The net cash flow from listed firms' operations hit a new high of Rs 11.1 trillion in financial year 2023-24 (FY24), crossing the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data going back to 1990-91. The FY24 figure represents a 19.3 per cent jump over the previous year, even as quite a few companies are yet to release their numbers.
Inflows into equity mutual funds (MFs) continued their strong momentum in July, despite the market volatility triggered by the Union Budget.
Equity markets will take cues from global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, while in the latter part of the week the first quarter earnings from IT majors TCS and HCL Technologies would guide investor sentiments, analysts said. Markets may consolidate after the record rally last week, experts added. "On the domestic front, the Q1 earnings season begins this week. Key companies such as TCS and HCL Technologies will release their earnings on July 11 and 12, 2024, respectively.
Mutual funds' largecap investment universe is expected to see seven changes in the upcoming stock reclassification exercise by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). According to a report by IIFL Securities, Hero MotoCorp, Zydus Lifesciences, JSW Energy, NHPC, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Bosch and Samvardhana Motherson are expected to earn upgrades in the revised list of largecap, midcap and smallcap stocks set to be released in the first week of July. Amfi revises the list at the start of January and July every year based on the previous six-month performance of the stock.
Despite a slowing economy, the Budget does not envisage any major stimulus through the budgeted fiscal deficit figures, said Goldman Sachs.
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
'Despite the current uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains constructive due to strong fundamentals, government initiatives, and a stable banking sector.'
Mutual Fund inflows in FY25 have already reached two-thirds of the total inflows seen in the entire FY24, with net inflows standing at Rs 1.3 trillion.
Tata Motors reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 17,483 crore (adjusted for exceptional gains and losses) for Q4FY24, surpassing TCS' consolidated net earnings of Rs 12,434 crore. For the automotive major, this marked a 213.7 per cent year-on-year increase in the bottom line, from Rs 5,573.8 crore a year ago. In contrast, India's biggest IT firm saw a more modest Y-o-Y growth of 9.1 per cent in net profit, from Rs 11,392 crore.
'By investing in a basket of funds, FoFs can help minimise the impact of underperforming funds, thus reducing overall investment risk.'
Kotak Mahindra Bank's loan and deposit growth are likely to be affected after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) asked the private-sector lender not to take on board new customers through the bank's online and mobile banking channels and not to issue any new credit cards, according to analysts. The bank's share price fell 10.85 per cent on Thursday to close the day at Rs 1,643 on the BSE. The RBI's action came after market hours on Wednesday.
Food delivery platform Zomato has laid the foundation for its third vertical of growth by agreeing to acquire Paytm's entertainment and ticketing business, said analysts on Thursday (August 22). Zomato, which also runs a quick commerce business called Blinkit, will strengthen its 'going out' offering but the acquisition may take time to yield results, they said. "Paytm's entertainment and ticketing arm will be part of Zomato's District app, which is due to be launched in the coming weeks.
Earnings growth trajectory for India's capital goods firms is likely to stay buoyant for the December 2023-ended quarter (Q3 FY24), said analysts. Guidance on margins, ordering activity in an election year and export-related demand would be key monitorables. Brokerages - Motilal Oswal, Nuvama, Kotak Institutional Equities and Prabhudas Lilladher - estimated revenue growth for their capital goods universe to be 11-16 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y).
Shares of brokerages and market infrastructure institutions (MIIs) witnessed heavy selling pressure following the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) pivot to a uniform fee structure, which analysts fear could dent revenues. Discount brokerages, which currently benefit from a spread between client charges and exchange fees, are expected to be most affected. Shares of Angel One, the third-largest brokerage by active clients, fell 8.7 per cent. Groww and Zerodha, the largest brokerages, are not publicly listed.
Equity markets may witness a gradual up-move this week with some volatility as both election and earnings season are nearing their end, analysts said, adding that global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would hold significance in dictating investors' sentiment. Benchmark indices, which had a record-breaking rally last week, would also track global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend. The monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday may also fuel volatility in markets.
Quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and other global trends will be the major driving factors for determining movement in the domestic equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Besides, factors like trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also influence trading.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and ITC were the biggest gainers. Larsen & Toubro, Power Grid, NTPC and State Bank of India were among the laggards.
Operating margins have been the primary driver of corporate earnings in India in recent quarters, despite revenue growth suffering from weak consumer demand. Companies across sectors have reported a sharp improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins over the past two years, benefiting from lower commodity and energy prices. Higher margins more than compensated for slower revenue growth, resulting in double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive quarters.
India's financial sector is dominated by large government-owned and private-sector banks.
The ongoing fourth quarter earnings season, global factors and macroeconomic data would guide the trends in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Markets would also take cues from trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude. "Domestically, the next batch of Q4 earnings reports will drive stock-specific movements, Hero MotoCorp, Larsen & Toubro, BPCL, State Bank of India, Eicher Motors and Tata Motors are some of the big names in the list and the next phase of voting," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Despite steady loan growth, the banking sector is expected to report subdued margins in the quarter ending June 2024 (Q1FY25), driven by high demand for deposits amidst tight liquidity conditions. However, according to Bloomberg analysts, listed banks are forecasted to see a 14.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in net profit. Estimates showed that banks' net interest income (NII), and revenues from interest minus interest expenses might grow 11.9 per cent Y-o-Y.
'If the majority falls short of expectations, it may prompt initial adjustments in investor sentiment.'
Make minimum payments on all debts, then use extra funds to tackle the smallest debt first.
New Delhi-based pharmaceutical major Mankind Pharma is poised to take pole position in women's health portfolio in the India Pharma Market (IPM) after completing the Rs 13,630 crore deal to acquire Bharat Serums and Vaccines (BSV), senior company officials said. The deal potentially opens doors for Mankind Pharma to the overseas markets, which currently draws 92 per cent of its revenues from India. The combined entity will draw around 13 per cent revenues from the international market, with the remaining coming from the domestic market.
Shares of Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) rose nearly 1 per cent on Tuesday, hitting an intraday high of Rs 2,986.05 per share, after most brokerages reacted positively to the company's March quarter (Q4FY24) results. The bullish outlook stems from Reliance Jio's potential tariff hikes, given the competitive landscape, along with slow but steady improvement in the oil-to-chemical (O2C) vertical.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
The brokerage earnings estimate for the January-March 2024 quarter (Q4FY24) for Nifty 50 companies hints at a slowdown in corporate profit growth while revenue increase is likely to be in low single digits as in the previous two quarters. According to various brokerage estimates, the companies' combined net profits are expected to grow 3.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q4FY24, the slowest in the last five quarters. For comparison, the index companies' combined net profits were up 8.2 per cent Y-o-Y in Q3FY24 and 3.4 per cent Y-o-Y in Q4FY23.
For over a decade, HDFC Bank consistently outperformed industry growth rates in both deposits and advances, maintaining impeccable asset quality. Amid a landscape where other banks struggled with soaring non-performing assets (NPAs), HDFC Bank thrived, eventually surpassing ICICI Bank to become the largest private sector lender in India. Its net interest margin (NIM) remained stable in the range of 4.1-4.4 per cent.
From its recent lows, the stock of consumer major Marico is up 7 per cent on the back of a better-than-expected June quarter performance and robust outlook. In a pre-quarter update, the management indicated that domestic volume growth should witness an improvement in FY25, while other segments (growth portfolio, international business) too would see traction going ahead. The near-term trigger is strong sales and operating performance for Q1FY25.
