India's state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) are projected to incur under-recoveries of approximately Rs 80,000 crore on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales in FY27 if current loss levels persist, according to rating agency Icra.
State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are reportedly incurring losses of Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 35 per litre on diesel, as they continue to absorb rising crude oil costs without increasing retail prices. This situation is leading to expectations of a fuel price hike after upcoming state elections.
State-run oil-marketing companies (OMCs) are unlikely to significantly raise petrol and diesel prices despite crude oil nearing $100 a barrel, leading to potential margin pressure, while CLSA analysts project a 65 per cent upside for ONGC's stock.
Indian oil marketing companies are incurring significant losses, selling petrol at a Rs 14 per litre loss and diesel at Rs 18 per litre, as elevated global crude oil prices, exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, outpace capped retail fuel rates, according to rating agency Icra.
S&P Global Ratings warns that Indian oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL may face reduced profit margins due to rising crude oil prices and government pressure to maintain stable retail prices.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded India's growth forecast for financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent, attributing the revision to weaker consumption and industrial activity, elevated energy prices, and rising input costs stemming from the West Asia conflict.
Fitch Ratings has warned that India's oil marketing companies (OMCs) could face significant credit pressure if crude oil prices remain elevated, leading to eroded earnings and increased working capital needs due to delayed fuel price pass-through.
Analysts are revising down India Inc's financial year 2026-27 (FY27) earnings growth forecasts, citing persistently high crude oil prices above $100 a barrel due to the West Asia conflict, which is expected to dent corporate financial performance in the coming quarters.
West Asia conflict triggers sharp sell-off in Indian markets, with realty, banking and auto stocks leading losses amid energy shock fears.
Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet have told the government that the country's airline industry is under extreme stress and on the verge of "stopping operations", as they sought revision in ATF pricing and financial support.
Calling such reports baseless, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said there was no such move under consideration.
'There is no shortage of fuel whatsoever.' 'India is stock surplus as far as petrol and diesel are concerned.'
The government has sharply reduced excise duty on petrol to 3 and diesel to zero, offering major relief to consumers. Here's how the price cut will impact fuel rates and inflation.
Indian stock markets tumbled sharply with the Sensex falling 800 points and nearly 4 lakh crore wiped out in a single session. Here are the 6 key factors, including rupee weakness and global cues, behind the crash.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
Around one full month of supply is firmly arranged with additional procurement being continuously finalised, and oil companies are successfully delivering over 5 million cylinders every day.
IndiGo operator InterGlobe Aviation had a mildly encouraging third quarter in financial year 2026 (Q3FY26).
India is well-stocked with inventories of crude oil and key petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), to deal with short-term disruptions as the war intensifies in West Asia, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said on Tuesday.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Responding to concerns raised by Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi in the Lok Sabha, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri said it is the foremost priority of the government that the kitchens of over 33 crore families, especially the poor and the underprivileged, do not face any shortage of gas.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Shares of Oil marketing companies (OMCs) extended their gains for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday after crude oil prices plunged to six-month lows in the international markets, which boosted investor sentiments. Traders said the OMC stocks gained with crude oil prices hovering below $70 per barrel after OPEC-plus decision to increase output from April, a move which is expected to favour Indian refiners with added marketing margins on retail fuel.
In a first, Indian oil public sector undertakings (PSUs) finalised a one-year contract to import around 2.2 million tonnes (mt) of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US. The LPG import deal comes at a time when negotiations for an India-US bilateral trade agreement (BTA) are gathering steam. Earlier in the month, US President Donald Trump had said Washington and New Delhi were "pretty close" to reaching a fair trade deal.
India's decision to import LPG from the US helps it to diversify sources as it reduces almost full reliance on West Asian countries for supply of the country's primary cooking fuel.
Amid the political push and pull, the Centre's decision to allow sugar exports and remove the 50 per cent duty on molasses exports has rekindled hope in the industry that more relief may follow.
Investors shunned shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) on Friday as they feared that the government's decision to cut retail prices of petrol and diesel could hurt the companies' profit margins in the near term. On Thursday, the government announced that OMCs will reduce pump prices of petrol and diesel after a record 22 months, making them cheaper by Rs 2 per litre in the national capital. The changes were effective from Friday.
After a spike in crude oil and gas prices in October following the Hamas terror attack, prices eased down 9 per cent month-on-month in November. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and Opec+ agreed to a further voluntary production cut in January-March 2024 to try and support global crude prices. The best guess here is that crude prices (currently at $75/barrel, or bbl) will not likely cross significantly above $80, and gas prices are also likely to remain subdued unless there's a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Indian OMCs have not been buying Iranian or Venezuelan crude which is actually sanctioned by US. OMCs have always complied with the price cap of $60 for Russian oil recommended by the US.
The government is likely to give a subsidy of Rs 30,000-35,000 crore to state-run oil companies - Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) - to compensate for losses incurred from selling LPG at below cost over the past 15 months, according to a senior official.
Oil marketing companies (OMCs), paint manufacturers, tyre producers, and aviation stocks witnessed significant gains as Brent crude oil prices slipped below $70 per barrel. The price drop came after a double blow: The US imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, including energy imports, and OPEC+ - the group of major oil-producing nations including Russia - announced an output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the first such hike since 2022.
Notwithstanding the robust turnaround in the financial performance for the June quarter (Q1FY24), stocks of state-run oil marketing companies have been in a downtrend in the last month. The fall comes on a rise in crude oil prices that have surged to a 7-month high of $88 a barrel. A busy political calendar in the months ahead that may see the government keep a lid on auto fuel prices is also a dampener, analysts said. Shares of Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) and Indian Oil (IOC) have shed 9-11 per cent since their respective earnings announcement between July 26 to August 4.
While prices sustaining lower levels is crucial, Govt actions are also a key monitorable given the forthcoming elections in 2024.
The government is likely to provide a subsidy of Rs 35,000 crore to state-owned Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) to make up for losses they incurred on selling the fuel this fiscal, sources said.
A special CBI court in Hyderabad convicted former Karnataka minister and MLA Gali Janardhana Reddy and three others in the Obulapuram Mining Company (OMC) illegal iron ore mining case after a prolonged trial spanning nearly 14 years. The court sentenced them to seven years' imprisonment and imposed a fine of Rs 10,000 on each. Reddy was named accused number two. The court imposed a Rs 1 lakh fine on the company. The CBI took Reddy and others into custody soon after the judgment.
India, the world's third largest oil importing and consuming nation, is likely to save as much as Rs 1.8 lakh crore on import of crude oil and LNG if the trend of softening international energy rates continues, Icra said Wednesday. India, which meets over 85 per cent of its crude oil needs through imports, spent $242.4 billion on buying crude from overseas in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.
Leading oil companies dedicated the second day of India Energy Week (IEW) 2025 to announcing strategic deals and business agreements across the supply chain - from sourcing more crude oil supply to deploying more domestic ships and building gas distribution capacity.
Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
Stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) have more headroom left despite the sharp run in the last few weeks, suggests a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Stocks of these oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs), it believes, are seeing multiples re-rate as investors reassess long-term growth prospects. "IOCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, 19 per cent below +1 standard deviation (SD); BPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near historical averages; HPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near +1SD," Morgan Stanley said.
Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri on Monday said India is the only country where rates of petrol and diesel have come down between November 2021 and April 2024. Replying to various queries during Question Hour in Rajya Sabha, the minister also informed that the government is encouraging dialogue between Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and dealers regarding margins for the latter. Puri noted that petrol and diesel were deregulated during the UPA government.
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