'I think today RBI supervision is much sharper than what it was earlier.'
Wholesale price based inflation declined to a 3-month low of 1.89 per cent in November on cheaper food items, and experts predicted a 0.25 per cent interest rate cut by the RBI in the policy review in February. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.36 per cent in October 2024. It was 0.39 per cent in November, last year. In August, 2024, it was 1.25 per cent.
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
The Reserve Bank of India has postponed the meeting of its interest rate setting Monetary Policy Committee by a day to August 3 due to administrative exigencies. The RBI said the decision of the MPC will be known on August 5 as against the earlier schedule of August 4. "Due to administrative exigencies, it has been decided to reschedule the MPC meeting from August 2-4, 2022 to August 3-5, 2022," RBI said in a statement on Thursday.
'We never waste a crisis. There will be learning and the supervisory tools will get better with each episode.'
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
The government has invited applications for the post of deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) from interested candidates with at least 25 years of experience and below 60 years of age as on January 15, 2025. One of the deputy governors, Michael Patra's current term will end on 15 January. The last date of submission of applications is November 30, 2024.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
The RBI under new Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday cut interest rate for the first time in nearly five years as the central bank pivoted the policy stance to support a shuttering economy. The 25 basis points rate cut to 6.25 per cent comes after last rate reduction in May 2020. The last revision of rates happened in February 2023 when the policy rate was hiked by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent.
Retail inflation slipped to seven-month low of 3.61 per cent in February mainly due to easing prices of vegetables, eggs, and other protein-rich items, creating space for the RBI to go for another cut in interest rate next month.
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
The RBI's rate-setting panel MPC on Monday began its three-day deliberation amid expectations of another round of hike in benchmark interest rates to contain inflation that continues to remain above the central bank's upper tolerance level. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee after deliberations on Wednesday. Das has already indicated that there may another hike in the repo rate, though he refrained from quantifying it.
'We will be very, very proactive in providing whatever liquidity requirements are needed.'
To ease the potential liquidity stress, the Reserve Bank on Friday slashed Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 4 per cent, a move that would unlock Rs 1.16 lakh crore bank funds. The RBI on May 4, 2022 had raised CRR to 4.5 per cent from 4 per cent in an off-cycle Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, with effect from May 21 the same year.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Markets regulator Sebi has notified a stricter regulatory framework for small and medium enterprise (SME) IPOs by introducing a profitability requirement and capping a 20 per cent limit on offer-for-sale (OFS). The reforms aim to provide SMEs with a sound track record an opportunity to raise funds from the public while protecting investor interests. This move follows a rise in SME issues, which has driven significant investor participation.
India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Friday. Varma further said out of the four engines of growth for the economy, exports and government spending supported the Indian economy through the pandemic, but other engines need to pick up the baton now. " I like to think in terms of the four engines of growth for the economy: exports, government spending, capital investment and private consumption. "...while exports cannot be the main driver of growth because of the global slowdown, government spending is necessarily limited by fiscal constraints," he told PTI.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
The Reserve Bank should focus on making liquidity easier rather than cutting rates if the intent is to drive growth, Axis Bank's chief economist Neelkanth Mishra said on Tuesday. Mishra, who is also a part-time member of the Economic Advisory Council to the PM, said the rate cut announced earlier this month or even the subsequent ones if they were to come will not end up increasing borrowings as the scarce liquidity will hamper transmission.
The RBI is likely to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points this week after keeping it on hold for two years, complementing the Union Budget initiatives to push consumption-led demand, though the sliding rupee continues to be a concern. As the retail inflation has remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone (less than 6 per cent) for most of the year, the central bank can take rate action to boost growth hit by sluggish consumption, opined experts.
'A possible post-election growth momentum may be lost.'
'Three external members of the first MPC are respected researchers with excellent academic background, but there is no harm in considering academicians with diverse backgrounds such as finance and labour along with economists for this body,' recommends Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate during 2024 given the uncertainty over food inflation, State Bank of India (SBI) chairman C S Setty has said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in interest rates in more than four years is expected soon, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls.
Even as the high inflation figure for October has ruled out any possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) in December, a rate cut in February also looks uncertain due to global uncertainties. Economists told Business Standard that unless domestic growth slows markedly, the outlook on rate cut remains unclear. India's headline inflation touched a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, breaching the MPC's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.
Continuing the downward trend, retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.31 per cent in January, mainly due to a decline in the prices of vegetables, eggs, and pulses. The Consumer Price Index-based retail inflation was 5.22 per cent in December and 5.1 per cent in January 2024. The previous low inflation was in August 2024 at 3.65 per cent.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das has said the decision on interest rate moderation will be based on long-term inflation trajectory and not monthly data. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by the RBI Governor is scheduled to meet between October 7 and 9 and take call on interest rate. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent for the ninth time in a row amid risks from higher food inflation.
Most members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) argued for front-loading interest rate hikes in view of rapidly rising inflation during the off-cycle monetary policy review earlier this month - the minutes of the meeting published on Wednesday showed. In early May, the rate setting committee met unscheduled and unanimously decided to hike the repo rate by 40 bps. This was the first repo rate hike in four years, and an inter-meeting hike in more than a decade.
Retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. Retail inflation trended below the RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent since September last year.
RBI's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings and global cues would be the major driving factors for equity markets this week, analysts said adding that the impact of the Union Budget could linger on this week. Trading activity of foreign investors will also be a key driver for the markets, experts noted. "US and India's manufacturing PMI for January to be released on Monday, will be the key macro data to watch out for.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the ninth time in a row, saying food inflation remains stubborn. The rate increase cycle was paused in April last year after six consecutive rate hikes, aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel began its three-day deliberations on Monday to decide the next monetary policy amid expectations that the central bank will maintain status quo on the benchmark interest rate in the backdrop of global scare due to the new coronavirus variant Omicron. Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to announce the policy resolution on Wednesday. If the RBI maintains status quo in policy rates on Wednesday, it would be the ninth consecutive time since the rate remains unchanged.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday said the central bank has developed an innovative artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) based model MuleHunter.ai to address the growing issue of mule bank accounts that are often used for committing financial fraud. Developed by the Reserve Bank Innovation Hub, the new initiative is piloted with two public sector banks.
Amid a debate on the basis of a monetary policy stance, one may be curious enough to know how non-food retail inflation has behaved over the years in India. Let the eager souls catch a glimpse of facts. In the past 10 years, non-food inflation came down below 4 per cent on two occasions - pre-Covid period of 2019-20 and now in the first four months of the current financial year (FY25).
State Bank of India, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and PowerGrid were also among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
Shaktikanta Das will demit the office on Tuesday after completing six years as the 25th Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra will replace him as the 26th Governor. He was appointed as the Governor on December 12, 2018, after the abrupt exit of Urjit Patel.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Sanjay Malhotra takes charge as the 26th RBI governor at a time when headline retail inflation has shot up to 6.2%.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel will start its 3-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of yet another rate hike of 50 basis points to check high inflation, in line with similar actions taken by other major central banks, including the US Fed. Based on the recommendations of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the RBI had effected 50 basis points increase in repo rate each in June and August after raising the short-term lending rate by 40 basis points in an off-cycle decision in May. The MPC, headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, is scheduled to meet during September 28-30.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
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