These are the highlights of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das's statement and resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC):
'We are very watchful about inflation and growth. But the main challenge is economic revival and growth.'
The economy is gaining traction with gradual pick up in manufacturing activity and moderation in contraction of services, spurred by comfortable liquidity conditions, an RBI article on Tuesday said. Observing that the retreat of the second wave of coronavirus pandemic has been slow, the RBI in an article on the 'State of Economy' said, the aggregate demand conditions are buoyed by the release of pent-up demand post unlock, while the supply situation is improving with the monsoon catching up to its normal levels and sowing activity gaining pace. "Reaffirming the traction that the economy is gaining, the manufacturing activity is gradually turning around, while contraction in services has moderated.
Exactly a fortnight ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) next monetary policy review, a key market indicator of interest rates - the overnight indexed swap (OIS) - suggests that the central bank may tighten policy by 35 basis points and then refrain from further rate hikes. RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra recently described the OIS as the primary instrument for hedging interest rate risk in India. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI will meet on December 5-7.
They have also called for giving cash to the poor, so that demand is generated in the economy.
As COVID-19 infections spike in the country resulting in restrictions in various states and impacting the fragile recovery, many economists are expecting RBI to delay the policy normalisation move, which is expected in the February review. The country has reported a single-day rise of 58,097 new Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday morning--the highest in around 199 days -- of which 2,135 are Omicron cases and later in the day, the first confirmed Omicron-related death has also been reported. Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 653 Omicron cases followed by Delhi at 464, Kerala 185, Rajasthan 174, Gujarat 154 and Tamil Nadu 121 cases, taking the total tally of cases to 3,50,18,358.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy is yet to recover from the impact of the second Covid wave.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to leave benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy faces heat of the second Covid wave.
North Block and Mint Road seem likely to now stick to the earlier convention of the RBI governor coming to Delhi and being the only MPC member meeting the finance minister and senior bureaucrats on pre-policy meetings
Recovering from a two-session carnage, equity benchmark Sensex rebounded 887 points on Tuesday, led by gains in index majors ICICI Bank, HDFC twins and Infosys amid a positive trend in global markets. According to experts, global equity markets are slightly relieved after studies pertaining to the Omicron strain of COVID-19 suggest that even though it is fast spreading, it is largely milder than the Delta variant. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 886.51 points or 1.56 per cent higher at 57,633.65.
IndusInd Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 3 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, HDFC twins and Bajaj Finance were the gainers.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation forecast for 2021-22 to 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost. The RBI in June had pegged the retail inflation estimate at 5.1 per cent for the current financial year. The RBI has the mandate to keep inflation in a band of 2-4 per cent, with a tolerance level of 2 per cent on either side.
The Reserve Bank on Friday projected retail inflation to be in 5-5.2 per cent range during the first half of the next fiscal year, expecting further softening of vegetables prices in near term. Also, it has lowered the retail inflation forecast for the current January-March quarter of 2020-21 fiscal at 5.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has kept the key policy rate unchanged at 4 per cent, with an accommodative stance, so as to ensure that inflation remains well within the target, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the last monetary policy of 2020-21.
Tata Steel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by Infosys, Bajaj Finance, TCS, HCL Tech, ICICI Bank and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel, M&M, L&T and Axis Bank were among the laggards.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that early containment of the pandemic could impart an "upside" to the economic growth outlook.
The government should not go in for an 'aggressive fiscal consolidation' in the upcoming Budget as global risks have not abated, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Wednesday. Goyal further said subsidies are expected to come down as food and energy inflation moderates. WPI inflation in food articles in November was 1.07 per cent against 8.33 per cent in the previous month.
Tech Mahindra was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 3 per cent, followed by Dr Reddy's, PowerGrid, Kotak Bank, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank and M&M. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Maruti and Bharti Airtel were among the laggards.
"The Monetary Policy Committee recognises that there is monetary policy space for future action. However, given the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt it appropriate to take a pause at this juncture," the RBI said in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy for this fiscal.
Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may go for a hike of up to 0.25 per cent in the reverse repo rate at which the RBI absorbs excess liquidity and leave the repo rate at which it lends, to narrow the policy rate corridor, a British brokerage said on Thursday. "Growth concerns amid spread of the Omicron variant and relatively benign inflation out-turns provide the RBI with enough room to maintain its growth-supportive monetary policies," analysts at Barclays said, ahead of the resolution announcement next week. The RBI will hike the reverse repo rate by 0.20-0.25 per cent, given its liquidity management actions, it said.
The 30-share BSE benchmark jumped 533.74 points or 0.91 per cent to 59,299.32. During the day, it zoomed 783.24 points to 59,548.82.
Relations between the Mint Road and North Block have often been frosty, with the former's calls for lowering rates being the biggest point of difference
Mortgage lender HDFC Ltd on Wednesday announced an increase in its benchmark lending rate by 5 basis points (bps), a move that will make loans dearer for both existing and new borrowers. This is the third hike effected by HDFC in the last one month. "HDFC increases its Retail Prime Lending Rate (RPLR) on housing loans, on which its Adjustable Rate Home Loans (ARHL) are benchmarked, by 5 basis points, with effect from June 1, 2022," the housing finance company said in a statement.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
The SBI report ruled out a October rate hike
The Governor said the MPC had voted to maintain its accommodative stance, implying more rate cuts in the future if the need arises.
Of the seven members, four are proposed to be government nominees and the rest from RBI.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent to tame inflation.
Inflation in food articles during May stood at 1.13 per cent, as against 2.55 per cent in April.
Those hardest hit by the second wave of the pandemic have been blue-collared workers, doctors and healthcare workers, law and order and municipal personnel, individuals eking out daily livelihood, and small businesses. And there should be more measures taken to alleviate their pain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. The report also indicated that the RBI's growth numbers might have to be revisited as the central bank's real GDP growth projection of 26.2 per cent given in the MPC's resolution of April 7 for the first quarter of 2021-22, were "made before the full fury of the resurgence." Nevertheless, the "resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1: 2021-22.
The MPC states that the 4 external members will have a tenure of four years each.
Despite admitting to price pressures both from food items and input prices, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday hoped that a normal Southwest monsoon will have a "soothing impact" on inflation pressures and ruled out any wide variations in medium-term inflation forecast from what was given in April. In an unscheduled address earlier in the day amidst the raging pandemic, Das said the overall outlook for the economy is highly uncertain and is clouded with downside risks. He offered a slew of relief and liquidity measures to individuals and small businesses apart from a Rs 50,000 crore special liquidity window to the healthcare sector.
The government's total liabilities rose to Rs 128.41 lakh crore in December quarter from Rs 125.71 lakh crore in the three months ended September 2021, according to the latest public debt management report. The increase reflects a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.15 per cent in October-December 2021-22. In absolute terms, the total liabilities, including liabilities under the 'Public Account' of the government, jumped to Rs 1,28,41,996 crore at the end of December 2021.
RBI said inflation in the second half of the current fiscal is projected at 2.7-3.2%. It retained its GDP forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4%
Investors saw their wealth rise by more than Rs 3.96 lakh crore on Wednesday as stocks continued their rally for the second straight session amid the Reserve Bank reiterating its accommodative stance and easing concerns over the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The 30-share Sensex soared 1,016.03 points or 1.76 per cent to close at 58,649.68 and all the constituent stocks, except for two, closed in the green. Most of the rate-sensitive auto, banking and realty stocks registered gains during the day's trade. While the BSE Auto index rose 2.24 per cent, BSE Bankex went up 1.61 per cent and BSE Realty spurted 1.72 per cent.
Bajaj Finance was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by Maruti, SBI, Bajaj Finserv, Sun Pharma and Asian Paints. NSE Nifty rallied 293.05 points to 17,469.75.
Volatility is likely to continue in the stock market this week amid Omicron uncertainty and the RBI monetary policy meeting will be a key driver for benchmark indices going ahead, say analysts. It will be an event-packed week for the markets, with RBI policy and several macroeconomic numbers scheduled to be announced, they added. "Volatility is likely to continue amid Omicron uncertainty, RBI credit policy, and macroeconomic numbers. "There are lots of news flows on the Omicron variant which are causing volatility in the market while on the domestic front we will have the outcome of an important monetary policy of RBI that is scheduled on December 8. "We will also have our IIP and inflation numbers this week however they will be released on Friday after market hours," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Leading economists have pencilled in a high 13-15.7 per cent uptick in the economy in the first quarter of 2022-23 with an upward bias. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, on Tuesday said he expects the GDP to clip past 15.7 per cent in the first quarter with more chances of the final numbers printing in higher, while Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the rating agency Icra, said the economy will grow much lower at 13 per cent in the June quarter. The national statistical office will announce the first quarter GDP numbers later next week.
Private sector lender ICICI Bank has revised its external benchmark lending rate (EBLR) to 8.10 per cent, and state-owned Bank of Baroda has raised the rate to 6.90 per cent with immediate effect after the RBI hiked the key repo rate. Likewise, two other public sector banks -- Bank of India and Central Bank of India -- have also raised the repo linked lending rate. In an out of turn Monetary Committee Meeting (MPC), the Reserve Bank on Wednesday announced to hike the benchmark repo rate -- the short term lending rate it charges to banks -- by 0.40 per cent to 4.40 per cent with immediate effect, aimed at taming the rising inflation caused by the global geopolitical situation.
The MPC headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the resolution of the meeting at around noon on Thursday.
