The fourth consecutive rate cut is expected to lower equated monthly instalments (EMIs) for home and auto buyers, and borrowing cost for corporate.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The paper seems to be suggesting strongly that the tight target range be maintained even as the central bank is all set to miss the target range for three consecutive quarters because of the Covid crisis.
These are the highlights of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das's statement and resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC):
The government on Monday ruled out making public the RBI report detailing the reasons why the central bank could not keep inflation within the targeted 6 per cent upper limit for the three consecutive quarters. "Yes sir, RBI has furnished a report to the central government, as mandated under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, 1934 and Regulation 7 of RBI Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy process Regulations, 2016," minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary said in a written reply. The said provisions of the RBI Act, 1934, and regulations therein does not provide for making the report public, he said.
'We are very watchful about inflation and growth. But the main challenge is economic revival and growth.'
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
North Block and Mint Road seem likely to now stick to the earlier convention of the RBI governor coming to Delhi and being the only MPC member meeting the finance minister and senior bureaucrats on pre-policy meetings
The RBI's policy decision would be the major event driving trading sentiment in the equity market this week, while global cues, foreign funds movement and crude oil prices will be the other key factors to watch out for, analysts said. Markets have been witnessing a rebound recently. However, the move lacks decisiveness amid lingering challenges like global policy tightening due to soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions, they added. "RBI policy, global macro numbers and crude oil prices will set the trend for this week.
The economy is gaining traction with gradual pick up in manufacturing activity and moderation in contraction of services, spurred by comfortable liquidity conditions, an RBI article on Tuesday said. Observing that the retreat of the second wave of coronavirus pandemic has been slow, the RBI in an article on the 'State of Economy' said, the aggregate demand conditions are buoyed by the release of pent-up demand post unlock, while the supply situation is improving with the monsoon catching up to its normal levels and sowing activity gaining pace. "Reaffirming the traction that the economy is gaining, the manufacturing activity is gradually turning around, while contraction in services has moderated.
They have also called for giving cash to the poor, so that demand is generated in the economy.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy is yet to recover from the impact of the second Covid wave.
In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
As COVID-19 infections spike in the country resulting in restrictions in various states and impacting the fragile recovery, many economists are expecting RBI to delay the policy normalisation move, which is expected in the February review. The country has reported a single-day rise of 58,097 new Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday morning--the highest in around 199 days -- of which 2,135 are Omicron cases and later in the day, the first confirmed Omicron-related death has also been reported. Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 653 Omicron cases followed by Delhi at 464, Kerala 185, Rajasthan 174, Gujarat 154 and Tamil Nadu 121 cases, taking the total tally of cases to 3,50,18,358.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to leave benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy faces heat of the second Covid wave.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty ended on a mixed note on Wednesday as the euphoria about the Budget fizzled out, with investors going for profit-taking ahead of the Fed interest rate decision. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 158.18 points or 0.27 per cent to settle at 59,708.08 after it trimmed most of the intra-day gains. During the day, it had zoomed 1,223.54 points or 2 per cent to 60,773.44.
Relations between the Mint Road and North Block have often been frosty, with the former's calls for lowering rates being the biggest point of difference
Exactly a fortnight ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) next monetary policy review, a key market indicator of interest rates - the overnight indexed swap (OIS) - suggests that the central bank may tighten policy by 35 basis points and then refrain from further rate hikes. RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra recently described the OIS as the primary instrument for hedging interest rate risk in India. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI will meet on December 5-7.
"The Monetary Policy Committee recognises that there is monetary policy space for future action. However, given the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt it appropriate to take a pause at this juncture," the RBI said in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy for this fiscal.
Recovering from a two-session carnage, equity benchmark Sensex rebounded 887 points on Tuesday, led by gains in index majors ICICI Bank, HDFC twins and Infosys amid a positive trend in global markets. According to experts, global equity markets are slightly relieved after studies pertaining to the Omicron strain of COVID-19 suggest that even though it is fast spreading, it is largely milder than the Delta variant. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 886.51 points or 1.56 per cent higher at 57,633.65.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation forecast for 2021-22 to 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost. The RBI in June had pegged the retail inflation estimate at 5.1 per cent for the current financial year. The RBI has the mandate to keep inflation in a band of 2-4 per cent, with a tolerance level of 2 per cent on either side.
IndusInd Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 3 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, HDFC twins and Bajaj Finance were the gainers.
Tata Steel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by Infosys, Bajaj Finance, TCS, HCL Tech, ICICI Bank and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel, M&M, L&T and Axis Bank were among the laggards.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that early containment of the pandemic could impart an "upside" to the economic growth outlook.
The Reserve Bank on Friday projected retail inflation to be in 5-5.2 per cent range during the first half of the next fiscal year, expecting further softening of vegetables prices in near term. Also, it has lowered the retail inflation forecast for the current January-March quarter of 2020-21 fiscal at 5.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank (RBI) has kept the key policy rate unchanged at 4 per cent, with an accommodative stance, so as to ensure that inflation remains well within the target, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the last monetary policy of 2020-21.
The SBI report ruled out a October rate hike
Of the seven members, four are proposed to be government nominees and the rest from RBI.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
Tech Mahindra was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 3 per cent, followed by Dr Reddy's, PowerGrid, Kotak Bank, Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank and M&M. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Maruti and Bharti Airtel were among the laggards.
The 30-share BSE benchmark jumped 533.74 points or 0.91 per cent to 59,299.32. During the day, it zoomed 783.24 points to 59,548.82.
The MPC states that the 4 external members will have a tenure of four years each.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may go for a hike of up to 0.25 per cent in the reverse repo rate at which the RBI absorbs excess liquidity and leave the repo rate at which it lends, to narrow the policy rate corridor, a British brokerage said on Thursday. "Growth concerns amid spread of the Omicron variant and relatively benign inflation out-turns provide the RBI with enough room to maintain its growth-supportive monetary policies," analysts at Barclays said, ahead of the resolution announcement next week. The RBI will hike the reverse repo rate by 0.20-0.25 per cent, given its liquidity management actions, it said.
The Governor said the MPC had voted to maintain its accommodative stance, implying more rate cuts in the future if the need arises.
Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
RBI said inflation in the second half of the current fiscal is projected at 2.7-3.2%. It retained its GDP forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4%
Inflation in food articles during May stood at 1.13 per cent, as against 2.55 per cent in April.
Mortgage lender HDFC Ltd on Wednesday announced an increase in its benchmark lending rate by 5 basis points (bps), a move that will make loans dearer for both existing and new borrowers. This is the third hike effected by HDFC in the last one month. "HDFC increases its Retail Prime Lending Rate (RPLR) on housing loans, on which its Adjustable Rate Home Loans (ARHL) are benchmarked, by 5 basis points, with effect from June 1, 2022," the housing finance company said in a statement.
The government should not go in for an 'aggressive fiscal consolidation' in the upcoming Budget as global risks have not abated, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Wednesday. Goyal further said subsidies are expected to come down as food and energy inflation moderates. WPI inflation in food articles in November was 1.07 per cent against 8.33 per cent in the previous month.
Those hardest hit by the second wave of the pandemic have been blue-collared workers, doctors and healthcare workers, law and order and municipal personnel, individuals eking out daily livelihood, and small businesses. And there should be more measures taken to alleviate their pain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. The report also indicated that the RBI's growth numbers might have to be revisited as the central bank's real GDP growth projection of 26.2 per cent given in the MPC's resolution of April 7 for the first quarter of 2021-22, were "made before the full fury of the resurgence." Nevertheless, the "resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1: 2021-22.
