However, it may still not change its stance on the policy rate as inflationary pressures are coming from high commodity prices.
The repo rate has been left unchanged at 4 per cent, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the decisions taken by the central bank's MPC.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das has pitched for policy support from all sides -- fiscal, monetary and sectoral -- to nurture recovery of the economy hit by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The dent on economic activity due to the second wave of the pandemic during April-May necessitated continuation of monetary measures to support the process of economic recovery to make it durable, Das had said while participating in the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) earlier in the month. "Overall, the second wave of COVID-19 has altered the near-term outlook, and policy support from all sides - fiscal, monetary and sectoral - is required to nurture recovery and expedite return to normalcy," Das said, as per the minutes of the meeting released on Friday.
Higher for longer' may be the narrative in the developed markets, but interest rates might not stay high for very long in India, with a section of the market expecting rate cuts to begin this year. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the April review - after hiking the policy repo rate in six previous meetings. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that the pause was only for the April policy and that the central bank was ready to act if the situation demanded.
The Lok Sabha elections in 2024 are not a consideration when it comes to monetary policymaking, said Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das to underscore the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation. "It's not possible for me to comment what we do in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee), but one thing I can tell and I would like to make it very clear-that the fact of elections coming up in 2024 is not a factor at all so far as monetary policymaking is concerned. "Monetary policymaking is for checking (and) controlling inflation," Das said at the Business Standard, BFSI Insight Summit.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Das said that global economic activity has remained fragile and the surge in COVID-19 cases has subdued early signs of revival.
Describing the recent two consecutive spikes in retail inflation beyond the 6 per cent as a 'transitory hump', a Wall Street brokerage on Monday said it expects the RBI to overlook it and unanimously stick to the dovish stance at the forthcoming policy review, even though a further upward revision of its already-revised inflation target is more likely. The Reserve Bank-led monetary policy panel is scheduled to announce the third monetary policy review on August 6, amidst the continuing spike in retail inflation that has breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance level for the past two consecutive months.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for 2022-23 (FY23) by 80 basis points to 7.4 per cent, citing less favourable external conditions and rapid policy tightening by the central bank. In its update to the April World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that though a global recession in 2022 was ruled out with a growth estimate of 3.2 per cent, the balance of risks was squarely to the downside, driven by a wide range of factors that could adversely affect the global economic performance. "The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall.
India's services sector output growth touched a three-month high in November as business inflows rose markedly amid accommodative demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 55.1 in October to 56.4 in November, indicating a sharp increase in output that was the quickest in three months even amid higher operating expenses. Survey participants linked the latest expansion to demand strength, successful marketing and a sustained upturn in sales.
'The rising cost of construction, the cost of doing business, high compliance, and inflation/interest rates going up have already reduced returns to single digits.'
The Reserve Bank will go for a "dovish pause" at Wednesday's policy review announcement amid developments such as a rise in inflation, government maintaining the inflation target band and a likely impact on growth due to local lockdowns on rising COVID-19 infections, analysts said on Monday. Economists at American brokerage Bofa Securities said price stability, growth and financial stability will become the prime focus areas for the central bank going forward. "The RBI MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) should deliver another dovish pause on Wednesday," it said. The policy announcement, the first for the fiscal, will come days after the government maintained the RBI's target to ensure inflation to be within 2-6 per cent band for five more years.
The MPC headed by RBI Governor Urjit Patel said that the recent excise duty cut by the government on petrol and diesel will help contain inflation.
The rupee depreciated 44 paise and slipped below the 81-mark against the US dollar for the first time in early trade on Friday, weighed down by the strong american currency and risk-off sentiment among investors. Forex traders said escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine and rate hikes by the US Fed and Bank of England in a bid to contain inflation sapped risk appetite. Further, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a negative trend in domestic equities, and risk-off moods amid escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine weighed on the local unit.
Here are the highlights of the monetary policy announced by RBI governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday.
In its scheme of things, tackling inflation now comes ahead of ensuring growth in the world's sixth largest economy, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent in view of rising inflation and faint signs of economic growth amid gradual lifting of coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. The central bank's newly-constituted monetary policy committee (MPC) began its three-day meeting on October 7 and maintained the stance as accommodative. It also kept the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.35 per cent.
Inflation to peak in the current quarter within tolerance band, moderating in the second half of next fiscal, says central bank.
The uncertainty created by the jump in COVID-19 infections and localised lockdowns prompted RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and other members of the rating setting panel MPC to unanimously vote for status quo in interest rates and an accommodative policy stance to support growth, as per minutes of the meeting released on Thursday. "The need of the hour is to effectively secure the economic recovery underway so that it becomes broad-based and durable," the Governor said during the three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which ended on April 7. The renewed jump in COVID-19 infections in several parts of the country and the associated localised and regional lockdowns add uncertainty to the growth outlook, he observed, as per the minutes of the meeting released by the central bank.
Host of lenders led by State Bank of India (SBI) and Bank of India hiked lending rates after the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate to tame inflation. The hike has been effected in their benchmark rate linked to the repo rate, which increased by half a percentage point to 5.9 per cent. Even financial institutions like mortgage lender HDFC Ltd hiked the lending rate by 50 basis points effective Saturday.
Data suggests that households too are expecting inflation to subside, with the three-month-ahead and the one-year-ahead expectations declining by 40 basis points, reports Abhishek Waghmare.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
Shaktikanta Das is a master of the finest balancing act who listens to all but takes his own decisions, discovers Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Minutes of the MPC meeting show Das felt economy needs more monetary stimulus as inflation outlook remains uncertain.
The government on Monday ruled out making public the RBI report detailing the reasons why the central bank could not keep inflation within the targeted 6 per cent upper limit for the three consecutive quarters. "Yes sir, RBI has furnished a report to the central government, as mandated under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, 1934 and Regulation 7 of RBI Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy process Regulations, 2016," minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary said in a written reply. The said provisions of the RBI Act, 1934, and regulations therein does not provide for making the report public, he said.
The Reserve Bank of India, for the second straight time, on Thursday kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.15 per cent, maintaining its accommodative policy stance as long as it was necessary to revive growth. The central bank retained GDP growth at 5 per cent for 2019-20 and pegged it at 6 per cent for the next fiscal.
The minutes of the December MPC meet reveal members felt the current spike in the headline inflation rate was due to a temporary supply shock on the food front, expected to moderate by the second quarter of 2020-21.
In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
'Pump prices of petrol and diesel have reached historical highs. An unwinding of taxes on petroleum products by both the Centre and the states could ease the cost-push pressures,' the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has said.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty ended on a mixed note on Wednesday as the euphoria about the Budget fizzled out, with investors going for profit-taking ahead of the Fed interest rate decision. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 158.18 points or 0.27 per cent to settle at 59,708.08 after it trimmed most of the intra-day gains. During the day, it had zoomed 1,223.54 points or 2 per cent to 60,773.44.
The RBI's policy decision would be the major event driving trading sentiment in the equity market this week, while global cues, foreign funds movement and crude oil prices will be the other key factors to watch out for, analysts said. Markets have been witnessing a rebound recently. However, the move lacks decisiveness amid lingering challenges like global policy tightening due to soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions, they added. "RBI policy, global macro numbers and crude oil prices will set the trend for this week.
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
The paper seems to be suggesting strongly that the tight target range be maintained even as the central bank is all set to miss the target range for three consecutive quarters because of the Covid crisis.
The fourth consecutive rate cut is expected to lower equated monthly instalments (EMIs) for home and auto buyers, and borrowing cost for corporate.
Exactly a fortnight ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) next monetary policy review, a key market indicator of interest rates - the overnight indexed swap (OIS) - suggests that the central bank may tighten policy by 35 basis points and then refrain from further rate hikes. RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra recently described the OIS as the primary instrument for hedging interest rate risk in India. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI will meet on December 5-7.
'We are very watchful about inflation and growth. But the main challenge is economic revival and growth.'
These are the highlights of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das's statement and resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC):
The economy is gaining traction with gradual pick up in manufacturing activity and moderation in contraction of services, spurred by comfortable liquidity conditions, an RBI article on Tuesday said. Observing that the retreat of the second wave of coronavirus pandemic has been slow, the RBI in an article on the 'State of Economy' said, the aggregate demand conditions are buoyed by the release of pent-up demand post unlock, while the supply situation is improving with the monsoon catching up to its normal levels and sowing activity gaining pace. "Reaffirming the traction that the economy is gaining, the manufacturing activity is gradually turning around, while contraction in services has moderated.
As COVID-19 infections spike in the country resulting in restrictions in various states and impacting the fragile recovery, many economists are expecting RBI to delay the policy normalisation move, which is expected in the February review. The country has reported a single-day rise of 58,097 new Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday morning--the highest in around 199 days -- of which 2,135 are Omicron cases and later in the day, the first confirmed Omicron-related death has also been reported. Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 653 Omicron cases followed by Delhi at 464, Kerala 185, Rajasthan 174, Gujarat 154 and Tamil Nadu 121 cases, taking the total tally of cases to 3,50,18,358.
They have also called for giving cash to the poor, so that demand is generated in the economy.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances