From the Sensex firms, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints, Power Grid and State Bank of India were among the laggards. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Titan, HCL Tech, Tata Motors, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services were the gainers.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
'If you compare the data from 2017 and 2023 of the US imports from the world and China, you will see that the US was a complete loser in the trade war, and China was a complete gainer.'
The country's biggest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki India, has raised concerns about the continuing slide in small car sales.
'While investors believe in India's long-term growth story and resilience amid global uncertainty, they see near-term risks around the direction of a global trade war.'
'As the Budget has taken some measures to spur growth, similar action from the MPC may be expected.'
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) had a disappointing third quarter (Q3FY25) with flat volumes (after 7 per cent growth H1FY25). Price hikes will be required to maintain margins to offset the cost of palm oil inflation. However, some analysts see Q3 as an exception with strong volume growth expected to resume and it may be the fastest growing FMCG player in FY26.
The US Fed interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack will also remain on investors' radar, they added.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Saturday said that the market forces decide the value of rupee with respect to the US dollar and the central bank is not worried about day-to-day movement of the currency value.
'We are engaging in substantial open market sales of both wheat and rice to control food inflation; special measures of market intervention in vegetables, pulses and oil seeds were also taken to cushion the impact.'
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is likely to report muted results in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25) due to weakness in urban consumption. The weakness may persist through the first half of 2025-26 (H1FY26).
Geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, volatility in international commodity prices and financial market uncertainties pose considerable risks to India's economic growth in the coming year, the finance ministry cautioned on Wednesday. "Global trade continues to be affected by uncertainty in the policy environment... tariff-related developments in multiple countries have heightened trade-related risks, affecting investment and trade flows globally.
The stock of India's largest listed pure-play retail company, Avenue Supermarts (DMart), has slipped over 10 per cent from its monthly highs. A weak operational performance in the fourth quarter (January-March) of financial year 2024-25 (Q4FY25) and muted near-term outlook due to intense competitive pressures and higher costs could lead to downward momentum on the stock. While the stock dipped by 3.44 per cent in early trade on Monday, it recovered a bit to close 1.07 per cent lower at 4,017.
The combined market valuation of the top-ten most valued firms jumped by a whopping Rs 3,84,004.73 crore in the holiday-shortened last week, in-tandem with a smart rally in equities, with HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel emerging as the biggest gainers. Last week, the BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 3,395.94 points or 4.51 per cent, and the NSE Nifty surged 1,023.1 points or 4.48 per cent.
'Always ensure that lease terms are clearly written in the agreement, including rent escalation clauses and notice periods.'
Moody's Ratings on Wednesday said India's economic growth will exceed 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal, up from 6.3 per cent this year, on higher government capex and consumption boost from tax cuts and interest rate reduction. Projecting a stable outlook for the banking sector, Moody's said although the operating environment of Indian banks will remain favourable in the next fiscal, their asset quality will deteriorate moderately after substantial improvements in recent years, with some stress in unsecured retail loans, microfinance loans and small business loans.
According to an industry expert, companies such as Trident, Welspun India, Arvind, KPR Mill, Vardhman Textiles, Page Industries, Raymond, and Alok Industries stand to gain, as revenue from the US market accounts for 20-60 per cent of their earnings.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
From the Sensex pack, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, Zomato and UltraTech Cement were among the biggest gainers. However, ITC, Nestle, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
Gold prices rose by Rs 70 to hit yet another record high of Rs 98,170 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid firm global demand, according to the All India Sarafa Association. On Wednesday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity soared by Rs 1,650 to hit an all-time high of Rs 98,100 per 10 grams.
'April 9 announcement of slapping a 125% tariff on Chinese goods has brought the focus back to China, making this new phase feel like a repeat of the original conflict.'
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the inflation forecast for 2023-24 at 5.4 per cent, and vowed to take timely measures to prevent any spillovers of global food and fuel price shocks. Stressing that the Reserve Bank has identified high inflation as a major risk to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth, Governor Shaktikanta Das said the September retail inflation number may be lower than August and July prints. The headline inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated to 4.6 per cent in first quarter of 2023-24 as compared to 7.3 per cent in the same period a year ago.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will largely be driven by domestic corporate quarterly earnings, any update related to US tariffs and foreign fund movements this week, analysts said. Investors would also focus on world market trends, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend for further cues, experts noted.
When the country has been at war, the Opposition has buried its differences with the government, points out Aditi Phadnis.
Ask rediffGURU and PF and MF expert Janak Patel your mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
Higher growth in vegetable demand relative to supply in the recent past has led to an upward trend in inflation, with spikes becoming more frequent. A study by rating agency Crisil found that vegetable inflation has been the most volatile in the food category, in fact. Inflation volatility is detrimental for both consumers and farmers and also sidetracks policymakers in the short term, necessitating frequent and repeated price-smoothing measures.
Commuters on national highways and expressways will need to pay more for their road journeys, as the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has increased toll charges by an average of 4 to 5 per cent on highway sections across the country. The revised toll charges for motorists on national highways across the country have come into effect from Tuesday, a senior highways ministry official told PTI.
All the BSE sectoral indices closed in the green. BSE Realty, Auto, Capital Goods and Industrials were lead gainers, jumping up to 5 per cent. IndusInd Bank was the lead gainer among Sensex shares, surging by 6.84 per cent. Tata Motors rallied 4.50 per cent. Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, Adani Ports, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and HCL Tech were also among the gainers. ITC and Hindustan Unilever were the only laggards.
The World Bank on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for the current fiscal by 4 percentage points to 6.3 per cent amid global economic weakness and policy uncertainty. In its previous estimate, the World Bank had projected India's growth at 6.7 per cent for the fiscal year 2025-26.
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'Go for a base cover of Rs 10 lakh and then buy a super top-up of Rs 90 lakh.'
Global trends, macroeconomic announcements and US tariff developments are expected to drive stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Market participants will also closely track foreign investor activity, geopolitical tensions, and their impact on the US dollar and crude oil prices, they added.
United States President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on most US imports, with even higher rates for China (34%), India (26%), Japan (24%) and the EU (20%), escalating a global trade war.
The wholesale price index-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the sixth straight month in September at (-)0.26 per cent, on easing prices of food articles. The WPI-based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)0.52 per cent in August. In September last year, it was 10.55 per cent.
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
There is a "misperception" among the administration around deregulation, wherein digitisation is confused with deregulation, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Tuesday. Speaking at an event organised by alternative investment industry's lobby grouping IVCA in Mumbai, Nageswaran stressed that what is essential is to do away with needless regulations, whether they are to be complied with online or offline.
The income-tax (I-T) department has issued showcause notices under Section 68 of the Income-Tax Act to several startups over funds routed through Singapore, seeking explanations for investments received over the past five years, people familiar with the development said. The department is questioning the source, identity, and creditworthiness of overseas investors in these transactions, they said.
In a significant policy announcement from the Oval Office, President Donald Trump has declared a 25 per cent tariff on all imported vehicles entering the United States, a move he described as "very exciting" for domestic manufacturing. The tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, will impact nearly half of all vehicles sold in the United States, including American brands assembled overseas.
India's industrial production growth slowed to 3.8 per cent in January, while the February retail inflation at 5.09 per cent remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone for the sixth straight month, according to the latest government data. Growth in factory output, based on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), slowed to 3.8 per cent in January 2024, mainly due to poor performance of manufacturing, mining and power sectors, according to the data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
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