Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
India is among the three least-favoured Asian stock markets, according to BofA Securities whose survey found that 10 per cent of fund managers are underweight on Indian equities from a 12-month perspective.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday retained India's growth forecast at 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal and said it expects the RBI to start cutting interest rates in its October monetary policy review. In the economic outlook of Asia Pacific, S&P Global Ratings also retained its GDP growth forecast for the 2025-26 fiscal at 6.9 per cent and said solid growth in India will allow the Reserve Bank to focus on bringing inflation in line with its target.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that this stage would have been "premature" and "very very risky" as the retail inflation is still high, and future monetary policy action would depend upon the income data and outlook. Earlier this month, the RBI continued to maintain the status quo in the short-term lending interest rate (repo), citing inflationary concerns, though it changed the monetary policy stance to neutral.
'They are ideal for short-term financial goals like children's education or a down payment for a house.' 'They are also useful for transitional savings, such as during job switches or while starting a business.'
India's prices are rising faster than many of its emerging market peers. The country's inflation print for May at 4.25 per cent is a marked reduction from the levels seen in May 2022 (7.04 per cent). However, even though the inflation rate remains within the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent margin on either side, it continues to be higher than China, Russia, and Brazil.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi launched a scathing attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, accusing them of neglecting the welfare of backward sections, Dalits, tribals, and minorities. Gandhi promised a caste census in Delhi if the Congress forms the government, echoing his national call for removing the 50 percent cap on reservations. He also criticized Kejriwal's governance, drawing parallels with Modi's alleged reliance on propaganda and false promises. The Congress and AAP are part of the INDIA bloc, but are contesting the upcoming Delhi assembly polls separately. Gandhi's speech highlights the growing political tension ahead of the polls, where the Congress aims to regain its foothold in Delhi.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw had earlier called out the remarks made by Zuckerberg on the Joe Rogan podcast. "Mr. Zuckerberg's claim that most incumbent governments, including India in 2024 elections, lost post-COVID is factually incorrect," Vaishnaw had said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on January 13.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 26,533 crore from the Indian equity market this month so far owing to increasing allocations to China, concerns over muted corporate earnings and elevated valuation of domestic stocks. While the sell-off continues, the quantum of net outflows has significantly reduced compared to October, when Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) withdrew Rs 94,017 crore ($11.2 billion) on a net basis.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries were the major laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, NTPC, Power Grid and IndusInd Bank were among the gainers.
Ask rediffGURU and PF and MF expert Janak Patel your mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said people are finding current interest rates "very stressful" and urged banks to make them affordable. Speaking at an event organised by State Bank of India, the finance minister said that at present, India requires industry to ramp up and invest in new facilities, and added that lowering lending rates can help achieve the "Viksit Bharat" aspiration.
'We are not incentivising the old tax scheme. These taxpayers will also shift to the new regime after comparison.'
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate during 2024 given the uncertainty over food inflation, State Bank of India (SBI) chairman C S Setty has said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in interest rates in more than four years is expected soon, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls.
Retail inflation rose to three-month high of 4.81 per cent in June, mainly on account of hardening prices of food, according to the government data. Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.31 per per (revised upward from 4.25 per cent) in May and 7 per cent in June 2022. The inflation, however, remains within the RBI's comfort level of below 6 per cent.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday addressed the World Economic Forum where he offered business leaders low taxes if they manufacture their products in the US, while threatening them with tariffs if they don't. Addressing the forum's Annual Meeting in Davos through video conferencing, Trump also said he is going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down oil prices and asserted that if prices come down Russia-Ukraine war will end immediately.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato cracked nearly 7 per cent. Power Grid, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement were the other major laggards. In contrast, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
The government in FY26 Budget should announce an "effective" personal income tax cut to support consumption and demand, Barclays said on Thursday. In its FY25-26 Union Budget preview, Barclays said the key ask from the Budget, to be presented on February 1, is to support growth while adhering to fiscal consolidation path.
Market reaction to the Union Budget was overall neutral. The income tax "gift" wasn't enough to move the needle. There was some apparent rationalisation of Customs duty structure as well as cuts on import duties of some key components for the telecom and IT industry and duty cuts on vehicle imports. Other proposals related to development of agriculture and rural economy and renewables seem to be generally positive.
Amid mounting inflationary pressures, escalating material costs, and rising operational expenses, luxury carmakers Mercedes-Benz India and BMW India have announced price increases of up to 3 per cent on their entire model ranges effective from January 1, 2025. Mercedes-Benz India will revise ex-showroom prices by Rs 2 lakh to Rs 9 lakh, depending on the model. This adjustment will impact vehicles such as the GLC SUV and the high-end Mercedes-Maybach S 680 limousine.
India has secured the second position, contributing 36 per cent of the total brand value, a significant achievement fuelled by a 14 per cent increase in brand value, according to Brand Finance 2025 ranking. India follows the US, which maintains its dominant position in IT services brand value, holding 40 per cent of the total brand value.
The share of rent in consumption expenditure has risen to 6.58%, according to the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-2024. This is the highest it has been in surveys going back to the turn of the millennium.
The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
The BJP government in Gujarat has formed a five-member committee, headed by a retired Supreme Court judge, to assess the need for the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) in the state and to draft a bill for the same. The committee will submit its report within 45 days. The decision has sparked debate with the Opposition claiming it is an attempt to divert attention from pressing issues ahead of the upcoming local body polls, while the government insists the UCC will protect the rights of tribal communities. The committee will consult with religious leaders, including those from the Muslim community.
With short-term rates firming up due to tight liquidity conditions, Indian corporates are opting to borrow long term to take advantage of the attractive rates by locking them in these uncertain times. The banking system has a liquidity deficit of over Rs 2 trillion. According to market participants, engineering conglomerate Larsen & Toubro (L&T) raised Rs 1,500 crore through 10-year bonds in December 2024.
Deputy Governor Michael Patra warned about the spillover effects of food inflation.
It is similar to top-up health insurance plan, but provides for one or more claims cumulatively crossing the threshold limit.
'I wonder if they will keep it up after the elections.' 'I fear they'll start questioning eligibility -- income, age, bank accounts -- and eventually stop the scheme altogether.'
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
'The problem is that the bubble may not only be in valuations, but also in investors' minds.'
'Spending by the middle class is limited with a focus on savings. However, there is buoyancy at the top-end.'
The RBI has changed the way it approached supervision in the past. Having seen a couple of collapses in the NBFC sector and the near-collapse of a few banks, it is focusing on regular drills to prevent a fire from breaking out, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'It was a disaster on his part to give an oral remark which allowed ascertainment of the religious character of places of worship.' 'This disrupted the social harmony of the country.'
Investors lost Rs 24.69 lakh crore in market valuation in the last four days of severe drubbing in the equity market. Spike in global crude prices, unabated foreign fund outflows, a strong US jobs data diminishing early rate cut expectations, and the rupee logging its steepest single-day fall in nearly two years dampened investors' sentiment.
'...he keeps his campaign promises, does what he said he will do which led to his huge victory.'
Net flows from domestic institutional investors crossed Rs 5 trillion for the first time during a calendar year.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra were the biggest gainers. NTPC and Asian Paints were the laggards.
'Regardless of whether you invest Rs 100 or Rs 1 crore per month, risk is inevitable.' 'Positive returns at the end of the year can never be guaranteed.' 'This is a fundamental truth every SIP investor must grasp.'
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