Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
Markets regulator Sebi's new guidelines on research analysts (RAs) are forcing several equity research firms publicly announcing plans to shut down their shops due to heightened compliance and operational requirements. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), on January 8, came out with guidelines for Research Analysts in a bid to curb fraudulent stock recommendations and illegal practices in the securities market.
The highlight in January, with no surprise, has been flows into gold and silver ETFs.
The India-US trade deal has offered a much-needed breather for the Indian information technology (IT) industry, which has been grappling with global macroeconomic uncertainty and subdued client spending over the past few years.
FPIs net sold equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion in 2025 -- the highest annual net sale on record.
Domestic equities surged on Tuesday, posting their best single-day gains in more than eight months after a long-awaited trade deal between India and the US. The deal, which lowered tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, significantly improved investor sentiment and lifted a key overhang for the market.
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew over Rs 22,530 crore ($2.5 billion) from Indian equities so far this month amid rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar, continuing their selling streak from last year. This came following an outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore ($18.9 billion) recorded in 2025, triggered by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions and concerns over potential US tariffs and stretched market valuations.
'The bigger unknown remains global geopolitics, which is inherently unpredictable, including developments in our neighbourhood.' 'Another concern is the increasing tilt of government finances towards welfare subsidies, especially at the state level.' 'This could constrain capital expenditure, which is critical for long-term growth.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be major driving factors for market movement this week, analysts said. Unabated capital infusion by domestic institutional investors have supported the positive trend in the stock market last week, traders said.
Foreign investors fled Indian equities in 2025 at a scale never seen before, pulling out a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18 billion) as volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, especially potential US tariffs, and stretched valuations eroded risk appetite, though flows are expected to turn sustainably positive in 2026.
Investing in gold trumped most other asset classes in terms of compounded annualised returns over the long term, suggests a report by FundsIndia.
'AUM reached an all-time high of Rs 79.9 trillion in October 2025, driven by strong retail participation and record SIP inflows of Rs 29,529 crore from over 94.5 million contributing accounts.'
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 17,955 crore (Rs 2 billion) from Indian equities in the first two weeks of this month, taking the total outflow to Rs 1.6 lakh crore (Rs 18.4 billion) in 2025.' This sharp withdrawal follows a net outflow of Rs 3,765 crore in November, extending the pressure on domestic equity markets.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply by nearly 1 per cent on Monday, driven by strong buying in power, banking, and financial stocks.
After three consecutive months of heavy selling, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in the first week of February, infusing more than Rs 8,100 crore in Indian equities, aided by improving risk sentiment, along with a trade deal with the US.
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty extended their gains for the third straight session on Wednesday, driven by last-hour buying in bank, metal, and FMCG shares.
Stock markets rebounded on Friday with the benchmark Sensex closing higher by 316 points after heavy buying in banking and metal shares amid optimism over trade deal progresses and India's participation in Pax Silica.
Benchmark Sensex tumbled 1,236 points or 1.5 per cent while Nifty closed near 25,450 on Thursday following an across-the-board sell-off amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
Indian equity markets closed higher, driven by gains in PSU bank, auto, and financial stocks, following the US Supreme Court's decision on tariffs. Sensex climbed 479.95 points to 83,294.66, and Nifty advanced 141.75 points to 25,713.
The rupee appreciated 13 paise to close at 90.34 against the US dollar on Thursday, on trade deal optimism and overnight decline in commodity prices, even as the upside remained capped as investors look for more clarity on the India-US trade deal.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty advanced for the third straight session on Tuesday driven by firm global cues and optimism over India-US trade agreement, even as investors turned to profit-booking at higher levels.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled more than 1 per cent on Friday due to across-the-board selloff, especially in metal, IT and commodity stocks, tracking sluggish global markets.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty closed on a flat note in a choppy session on Wednesday as gains in PSU banks and auto shares were offset by losses in IT stocks.
The rupee witnessed a volatile trading session and settled for the day on a slightly lower note, down 1 paisa at 90.66 against the US dollar on Monday, as traders assessed the details of the India-US interim trade framework.
'The net inflows into MF schemes may also have been lower last month, with investors booking profit and taking a more measured approach amid elevated valuations.'
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained in a selling mode in January, withdrawing nearly Rs 36,000 crore (about $3.97 billion) as global uncertainties persisted. Meanwhile, a higher securities transaction tax (STT) proposed in the Union Budget may weigh on overseas investor participation in the near future.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, amid a weak trend in global stock markets.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty extended their gains for the second straight session on Monday, driven by optimism over the India-US trade deal and robust buying in public sector banks, consumer durables, and realty stocks.
After a brief pause in October, foreign investors resumed selling, pulling out a net Rs 3,765 crore from Indian equities in November, driven by global risk-off sentiment, volatility in global tech stocks and selective preference for primary markets over secondary markets.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel tanked the most by 4.57 per cent. ICICI Bank, Power Grid, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank were also among the laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, ITC and Bharat Electronics were among the gainers.
The rupee declined 31 paise to settle at 90.65 against the US dollar on Friday, weighed down by geopolitical uncertainties over the US-Iran talks, and a sharp rise in global crude oil prices.
Stock markets closed higher on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected and proposed allowing banks to lend to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with certain prudential safeguards to deepen the financing pool for the real estate sector.
They accounted for 39.1 per cent of the premium paid to trade equity options in September 2025.
Most first-time investors may be better served by diversified options such as flexicap or multi-cap funds, which already hold pharma and healthcare stocks.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded on Thursday after three sessions of losses, tracking gains in global markets after US President Donald Trump struck a conciliatory tone on Greenland. In a volatile session, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 397.74 points, or 0.49 per cent, to close at 82,307.37.
Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended 2.5 per cent higher on Tuesday after India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent.
Inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends would dictate sentiment in the stock market this week, according to analysts.
Cleaner balance sheets, regulatory support and strong growth prospects helped Indian private banks attract over $6 billion in foreign capital, with more deals expected in 2026.
Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.
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