The Indian rupee rebounded to 95.18 against the US dollar following a record low, buoyed by potential RBI intervention amidst escalating Gulf tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices.
Key Points
- The Indian rupee recovered to 95.18 against the US dollar after hitting a record intra-day low.
- Possible RBI intervention supported the rupee's recovery amid geopolitical tensions.
- Rising crude oil prices and foreign capital outflows initially pressured the rupee.
- Attacks on UAE infrastructure reignited supply chain fears, impacting investor sentiment.
- Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue to influence the rupee's performance.
The rupee recovered from all-time intra-day low to settle at 95.18 against the US dollar, higher by 5 paise, on Tuesday on possible RBI intervention after investors retreated from riskier assets amid renewed clashes in the Gulf and targeting of UAE infrastructure, which reignited supply chain fears.
Forex traders said Brent oil, hovering near USD 110 per barrel, is maintaining pressure on oil-importing economies like India. Moreover, factors such as unabated foreign capital outflows amid rising geopolitical uncertainties dented investor sentiments further.
Rupee's Volatile Trading Day
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.30 against the US dollar, then lost ground and touched an all-time low of 95.44 in intra-day trade. The rupee finally settled for the day at 95.18, registering a rise of 5 paise over its previous close.
On Monday, the rupee fell 39 paise to close at an all-time low of 95.23 against the US dollar.
Expert Analysis on Rupee's Outlook
"We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on rising global crude oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain closed. Dollar demand from importers and ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran may also pressure the rupee.
"However, RBI intervention may support the rupee at lower levels. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 95.10 to 95.55," said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Mirae Asset ShareKhan.
"The rupee's fresh all-time (intra-day) low... is a direct reflection of the unrelenting pressure from West Asia. Hormuz remains the single biggest factor governing oil and gas prices, and elevated crude is exerting a dual squeeze on the rupee," Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, said.
Global Market Influences
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 98.47, up 0.10 per cent.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 1.57 per cent at USD 112.64 per barrel in futures trade.
Domestic Market Performance
On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 251.61 points to settle at 77,017.79, while the Nifty fell 86.50 points to 24,032.80.
Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth Rs 3,621.58 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data.
Condemnation of UAE Attacks
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday strongly condemned the attacks on the United Arab Emirates' port city of Fujairah that resulted in injuries to three Indian nationals.
Modi's sharp denunciation of the attacks came a day after the Indians were injured after drone strikes caused a fire at a major oil industry zone in Fujairah. The UAE had accused Iran of carrying out the strike.
The attack on Fujairah city came as the ceasefire between the US and Iran came under strain in the Strait of Hormuz.
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