India's industrial production growth decelerated to 5.8 per cent in September from 10.3 per cent in August, though on an annual basis, the output of manufacturing and mining sectors showed an improvement, according to the official data released on Friday. The factory output growth measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had grown by 3.3 per cent in September 2022. During April-September 2023-24, the IIP growth works out to be 6 per cent, down from 7.1 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago.
The US Fed interest rate decision, domestic inflation data and global trends would be key driving factors in dictating movement in the market this week, as the Lok Sabha elections outcome and the RBI policy decision are behind us, analysts said. The past week was a roller-coaster ride for investors as markets swung sharply in both directions before closing with strong gains.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to a 15-month low of 3.6 per cent in January, on account of poor performance of sectors like refinery products, fertiliser, steel and electricity, according to the official data released on Thursday. The growth of eight core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 4.9 per cent in December. It was 9.7 per cent in January 2023.
With the news of recession hovering over the horizon, better IIP figures indicate increase in industrial production. It makes investors and stock markets become more optimistic.
Historically, the IIP performance has shown little or no correlation to corporate performances.
Factory output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, contracted in March to a five-year low of 3.5 per cent.
India's industrial production growth rose to a five-month high of 5.7 per cent in July, mainly due to good showing by the manufacturing, mining and power sectors, according to the official data released on Tuesday. The factory output growth measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood at 2.2 per cent in July 2022. The previous high was recorded at six per cent growth in February 2023. Thereafter, the growth rate declined to 1.9 per cent in March 2023 before rising to 4.6 per cent in April and further to 5.3 per cent in May.
The IIP growth has been revised downwards to 1.14 per cent for January, from the provisional estimates of 6.8 per cent, according to the official data released on Wednesday.
The absence of any recovery in investment is underlined by the capital goods sector.
Prime Minister's economic advisory panel chief C Rangarajan has described the dip in factory output in September as 'disappointing' and said industry may grow by just 6 per cent in the current fiscal, as against the earlier projection of 7 per cent.
India's industrial production growth declined to a three-month low of 3.7 per cent in June mainly due to poor showing by the manufacturing sector, according to the official data released on Friday. The factory output growth measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood at 12.6 per cent in June 2022 on account of a lower base effect. The previous low of IIP was at 1.9 per cent in March 2023.
Capital goods, a barometer of investments, showed a sharp increase in output by 14.6 per cent in January, 2018 as against a decline of 0.6 per cent year ago.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
In terms of industries, 16 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during December 2017 as compared to the same month year ago.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Friday described the industrial output in December as encouraging and said it would have a positive bearing on the economic growth figures for the current fiscal.
Factory output as measured in terms of IIP had grown by 7.3 per cent in December 2017.
The change in the baseline for IIP and WPI, currently at 2004-05, is expected to bring in more accuracy in mapping the level of economic activity and calculating other numbers like national accounts.
The government has authorised economic think-tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) to collect data to be used for compilation of the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
The IIP rate had dipped by 0.4 per cent in November, for the first time since the new series for the IIP was introduced in financial year 1993-94, mainly due to poor performance of manufacturing, which has nearly 80 per cent weight in the index.
The fall was led by L&T, IndusInd Bank, PowerGrid, NTPC, TCS, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Hero MotoCorp, Bharti Airtel and SBI, declining up to 2.64 per cent.
According to the Central Statistics Office data, the jump in the retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index was mainly due to rise in prices of kitchen items like vegetables, meat and fish.
Keeping pace with the rapidly changing income and consumption pattern, the government will soon come out with a new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and develop indices for measuring growth of SSI sector and calculating consumer prices in urban areas.
During the month, inflation in vegetables shot up to 35.99 per cent, as against 26.10 per cent in October. Likewise, the prices of cereals and eggs grew at a faster pace of 3.71 per cent.
The overall market breadth was positive as 1,599 stocks advanced against 1,246 declining ones, on the BSE.
A big change in the new IIP data, taking 2004-05 as the base year against 1993-94 in the old series, is its classification of items and the weights assigned to these.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to a 4-month low of 8.1 per cent in September 2023 against 8.3 per cent a year ago, according to the official data released on Tuesday. The growth rate in the output of refinery products, fertiliser, cement and electricity during the month under review has decelerated, while it was negative in the case of crude oil. The previous low was in May, when the growth rate of these sectors stood at 5.2 per cent.
Correcting the industrial output figures twice within span of a few hours, the government on Thursday said IIP grew at 2.3 per cent in April instead of 2 per cent reported on Wednesday.
The factory output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, soared to 16-month high of 8.2 per cent in October on good performance of the manufacturing, power sector and higher output of capital as well as consumer goods, indicating sudden recovery in the economy.
Inflation is expected to be higher in December than 7.48 per cent in November, since food inflation has surged up to 18.32 per cent during the week ended December 25.
Stock markets would take cues from the upcoming macroeconomic data announcements and global trends besides keeping a watch on the trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The last batch of the ongoing earnings calendar would trigger stock-specific action, traders said. "This week, we have to deal with macroeconomic data on both the domestic and global front.
Terming sharp revision in the industrial production data as "totally baffling", Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Friday said he has asked the authorities concerned to look into the issue.
BSE market breadth was negative. Out of 2,961 shares traded, 1,907 shares declined while 941 shares advanced.
India's industrial production rose to 5.2 per cent in May from 4.5 per cent in April 2023, mainly due to good performance by the manufacturing and mining sectors, according to the official data released on Wednesday. The factory output growth measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood at 19.7 per cent in May 2022, mainly due to a lower base effect. "The growth rates over corresponding period of previous year are to be interpreted, considering the unusual circumstances on account of COVID 19 pandemic since March 2020," an official statement explained.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to a 14-month high of 12.1 per cent in August 2023 against 4.2 per cent a year ago, mainly due to expansion in production of coal, crude oil, and natural gas, according to the official data released on Friday. The expansion in August is the highest since June 2022, when it was 13.2 per cent. The production of refinery products, steel, cement and electricity also grew in August, the data showed.
The broader markets also ended in the red, after a rally seen in the sectors last week.
He is, however, hopeful that impact of recent reforms initiatives will manifest in the data for the second half of the fiscal.
The NSE Nifty is at 5,340 down 22 points. Inspite of two big negative news looming in the market, the index lost around 100 points,owing to the huge FII inflow which kept the sentiments positive.
The production growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to a six-month low of 7.8 per cent in November due to a decline in the output of crude oil and cement sectors. The growth rate in the production of coal, fertiliser, steel, and electricity also decreased during November this year. According to the data released by the government on Friday, the growth during the month under review, however, is higher than the 5.7 per cent recorded a year ago.
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