The combination of sanctions, and low fuel prices is really hurting the Putin regime.
After contracting for the first time in 15 years in October, industrial production again crashed by two per cent in December against a growth rate of a whopping 8 per cent a year ago despite a stimulus package announced by the government to boost sagging demand.
The Indian industry logged 8.5 per cent growth in October 2005, compared to 10.6 per cent in the same month last fiscal.
Industrial growth recovered to 7.1 per cent in July from the dismal performance in previous two months of the current fiscal, even though it moderated compared with 8.3 per cent recorded a year ago.
India's industrial production slowed down to 8.6 per cent in February 2008, compared to 11 per cent a year-ago, but belied apprehensions of a major slowdown after dismal figures for the previous month, giving RBI some headroom to tighten money supply for combating the surging inflation.
Export growth picked up mainly owing to rising global crude prices, which pushed up processed petroleum exports by nearly 40 per cent, apart from a broad-based improvement in exports of major foreign exchange earners such as engineering goods and gems and jewellery.
Historically, there has been no correlation between growth in bank credit to industry and lower benchmark interest rate
Although the current long-term bullish trend is intact, markets are awaiting clarity on the taper and the Assembly election results.
Subramanian's paper comes at a time when concerns have been raised in various quarters about the official economic growth numbers. The Economic Advisory Council-PM said the Base Year of India's income calculations were shifted to 2011-12 on the basis of recommendations of several committees with experts in national income accounting.
The high growth rate over the last few years has been more cyclical, than structural, in nature. And continued supply side bottlenecks will necessarily mean that periods of high growth will trigger inflationary pressures.
The NSE Nifty ended at 3,681, up 127 points. The market breadth is fairly positive -- out of 2,586 stocks traded, 1,410 have advanced while 1,101 have declined.
Chidambaram promises to maintain fiscal discipline; admits inflation is an issue.
The rupee on Tuesday tumbled by 32 paise to close at 64.17 on fresh dollar demand from importers.
Just when the markets were recovering came another jolt. Poor IIP numbers for the month of May, triggered a fresh round of selling, especially the capital goods stocks began to slide... Unabted selling, thereafter, saw the index tumble to a low of 13,351 - down 715 points from the day's high. The NSE Nifty dropped 113 points to settle at 4,049.
BSE Auto was the top sectoral loser with a 4.6% fall followed by realty sector down 3.7% and consumer durables 3.6% post disappointing IIP numbers
"We believe in the coming months of September and October, the manufacturing growth is likely to remain flat and IIP growth may even continue to remain in the negative territory," SBI Research said in its Ecowrap Report.
If there is indeed a slowdown, it is unlikely to be confined to the export sectors.
The trend was visible in the early trade on Thursday as investors indulged in trimming their bets after the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September meeting indicated a possible rate hike this year.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for July 2007, released on September 12, showed the manufacturing sector decelerated to a growth rate of 7.2 per cent over July 2006, after many months of double-digit growth.
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India's share of 2015 emerging market allocations will be driven by FII perceptions on likely growth and reform.
The rupee fell to a two-year low of 64.84 against the US dollar.
'Political parties bring out money they have stashed away and start spending it. How large that spending will be depends on how much money has been stashed. So, you are going to have a strong upside coming from the election effect,' says Pronab Sen.
In a pointer to a slowdown in consumer demand, India's industrial production growth dipped to an 11-month low of 6.4 per cent this September, nearly half the September 2006 figure.
The eight core industries -- fertilisers, cement, steel, electricity, crude oil, coal, petroleum refinery products and natural gas -- have a combined weight of about 38 per cent in the Index of Industrial Production.
Credit growth has slowed down from around 32 per cent (year-on-year) in July 2006 to around 23 per cent in August. Anecdotal evidence suggests that much of the deceleration in growth has come on the back of softer retail credit off-take.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 10.9 per cent in January this year as against 8.5 per cent in the corresponding month last year.
The 50-share NSE Nifty ended flat, up 5.80 points, or 0.06 per cent, at 10,308.95.
Huge gold imports have put pressure on the country's CAD, which in turn is affecting the value of rupee.
Small and medium enterprises have been struggling to raise bank credit even as they have been powering India's manufacturing growth in recent years.
Loans, cash credits, and overdrafts at the end of December 22, 2017, stood at Rs 81,287.32 billion, against Rs 73,340 billion in the year-ago period.
All sectoral indices, led by realty, PSU, oil & gas and banking, were in positive zone with gains of up to 1.25 per cent.
Factory output, measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production, showed an improvement mainly because of an uptick in mining and manufacturing production and larger offtake of capital goods.
Oil, banks eneded the day in green while few in auto sector lost heavily.
There is a strong case for 25 basis points cut in interest rates.
On a cumulative basis, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the first quarter this fiscal grew by 10.3 per cent as compared to 7.7 per cent in the year-ago period, according to the official figures released on Friday.
ICICI Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, surging 4.64 per cent, followed by Axis Bank at 3.86 per cent and SBI 2.53 per cent.
The rupee rallied for the second straight session by gaining 21 paise to end at 66.10 against US dollar.
The S&P BSE Sensex plunged 301 points to close at 25,490 and the Nifty50 fell 86 points to end at 7,815.
Investors must exercise caution at the current valuation level. There is always a second time when it comes to investing in stock markets!
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