After 3 weeks of consecutive rally, this week was a breather for the index, which corrected by almost 1.5%.
Global trends, the last batch of Q2 earnings and domestic macroeconomic data will dictate terms in the equity market, which had an extended weekend last week, analysts said. "FIIs' behaviour along with inflation numbers from US and China will remain key factors for this week. After an extended weekend, Indian markets are likely to start a fresh week with a positive note on the global backdrop. "However, there is a risk of selling pressure at higher levels as we are underperforming the global peers where the near-term texture has changed to 'sell on rise' from 'buy on dip'," Santosh Meena, head (research) at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
The rupee depreciated by 37 paise to close at 79.62 against the US dollar on Thursday despite sustained foreign capital inflows and a positive trend in equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.22 and saw an intra-day high of 79.22 and a low of 79.94 against the American currency. It finally ended at 79.62, down 37 paise over its previous close of 79.25.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 1.4 per cent in November as most components like manufacturing, electricity, mining, primary goods, and consumer durables witnessed a slowdown, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. This is on the base of a decline of 1.7 per cent in November 2020 and before the new Covid variant started impacting economic activity. IIP growth was lower than the 4 per cent expansion recorded in the previous month but was better than a 1.6 per cent contraction seen in November 2020. Separately, rising prices of kitchen staples pushed retail inflation, or rate of price increase, to 5.59 per cent in December 2021, bringing it close to the upper band of Reserve Bank's comfort zone.
The output of eight core sectors rose 4.4 per cent in September on account of healthy performance by segments like natural gas, refinery products and cement, official data showed on Friday. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had grown by 0.6 per cent in September 2020, as per the data released by the commerce and industry ministry.
Barring crude oil and cement, all other sectors recorded positive growth in November. In October, these core sectors' output had grown by 8.4 per cent. In February this year, the growth rate contracted to 3.3 per cent.
Gross collection of tax on corporate and individual earnings jumped nearly 24 per cent so far in the current fiscal year that started on April 1, the tax department said on Sunday. The gross collection of taxes on corporate earnings rose 16.74 per cent during April 1 to October 8, while personal income tax collection jumped 32.30 per cent, the tax department said in a statement. Direct tax collection came at Rs 8.98 lakh crore between April 1 to October 8, 2022, 23.8 per cent higher than the gross collection in the corresponding period a year ago.
Soft drinks are a part of the larger consumer non-durables category, which rose five per cent in June, against a 0.5 per cent fall a year earlier, showed official data released on Monday.
The output of eight core sectors jumped by 56.1 per cent in April mainly due to a low base effect and uptick in production of natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity, official data released on Monday showed. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 37.9 per cent in April 2020 due to lockdown restrictions imposed to control the spread of coronavirus infection. In March this year, the eight sectors had recorded a growth rate of 11.4 per cent.
The government clarified that the majority of industrial establishments had reported nil production, and cautioned that the numbers should not be compared with those of previous months. "It is not appropriate to compare the IIP of April 2020 with that of earlier months, and users may like to observe the changes in the IIP in the following months," said the ministry of statistics & programme implementation.
The inflation data for May and the US Fed interest rate decision are the crucial factors that would dictate terms in the equity market this week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of rupee and crude oil prices would be the other key monitarables for the markets, they added. "All eyes will be on the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision scheduled on June 15, and the market is fearing aggressive rate hikes amid inflation monster. "Bank of Japan will also announce its credit policy on June 17.
Lower crude oil prices and a rally in domestic equities restricted the losses to some extent, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened weak at 79.50 per dollar.
She also took a swipe at the Bharatiya Janata Party over its defeat in the just-concluded Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, saying the ruling party's president could not hold on to his home state. "Who is the Pappu now?" she asked.
While the index of industrial production series is justly criticised for its flaws and its volatility, its trend is unmistakable.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
Faulty Jan data blamed on festival holiday; govt to form review panel
Contracting for the ninth consecutive month, the output of eight core infrastructure sectors dropped by 2.6 per cent in November, mainly due to decline in production of natural gas, refinery products, steel and cement. The production of eight core sectors had recorded a growth of 0.7 per cent in November 2019, data released by the commerce and industry ministry showed on Thursday. Barring coal, fertiliser and electricity, all sectors -- crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel and cement -- recorded negative growth in November 2020.
The economy, though projected to grow 9.6 per cent in the next financial year in year-on-year growth term, may grow just 1 per cent in real terms to Rs 147.17 lakh crore as against Rs 145.66 lakh crore in 2019-20, at the 2011-12 prices, according to a report by India Ratings. The size of the economy, as per the National Statistical Office's data, had stood at Rs 145.66 lakh crore in 2019-20, at the 2011-12 prices. According to the rating agency, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract 7.8 per cent to Rs 134.33 lakh crore in 2020-21, but may grow 9.6 per cent to Rs 147.17 lakh crore in 2021-22.
The 30-share barometer dropped by 402.22, or 2.37 per cent to 16,464.75 at 1200 hrs with all sectoral indices trading in the negative zone.
Barring coal and fertiliser, all sectors -- crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in August.
Terming the slowdown in May industrial output as "not encouraging", Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Tuesday said the government was in the process of taking steps to enhance the productivity of the manufacturing sector.
The Nifty opened in red and remained subdued until the industrial output data for the month of April came in at 6.3%, putting pressure on stocks from capital intensive sectors.
In terms of industries, 17 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown negative growth.
India's factory output climbed 22.4 per cent in March, benefiting from the base effect of the lockdown-marred month a year back as well as a turnaround in the manufacturing sector, while retail inflation slipped to a three-month low of 4.29 per cent in April. The high positive annual growth in the index of industrial production (IIP) in March 2021 came on back of a contraction of (-)0.9 per cent and (-)3.4 per cent in January and February 2021 respectively, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. This turnaround was led by recovery in the mining, manufacturing and electricity sectors.
Among the main industry segments, manufacturing activity declined to 5.9 per cent from 10.6 per cent a year ago.
It is human error, which cannot be completely avoided in complex data like the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), says T C A Anant.
In most circumstances, this would have been the cause for widespread handwringing and lamentation. But in today's India, the response was more one of relief than one of shock.
Sectors which recorded positive growth were coal, refinery products and fertiliser.
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors - coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement, and electricity - had recorded negative growth in May.
According to the report, the December inflation will likely continue to peak off to 7.3 per cent.
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in July.
Manufactured goods, which have around 80 per cent weight in the index of industrial production, which measures industrial growth, grew by 12.7 per cent in November 2009 compared to 2.7 per cent in the same month a year ago.
The new IIP series based on the new base year, is expected to lead to better capturing of ground data
CPI inflation could fall marginally but stay above RBI's comfort level.
However, economists warned that going forward monsoon could play truant; already processed food production is down 14.7 per cent in May and 27.2 per cent in the first two months of this fiscal. Though industrial growth in May was down from 4.4 per cent a year ago, it was quite encouraging as it was more than double the 1.2 per cent in April, when growth turned positive after being in negative territory almost every month since October 2008.
The overall index showed an increase of 2.4 per cent over November 2007, which is not a great performance but apparently different from the 1.4 per cent decline in the previous month. However, the base effect seems to be largely responsible for both numbers.
The output of eight core sectors grew by 11.6 per cent in August, mainly due to an uptick in the production of cement, coal, and natural gas, official data showed on Thursday. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 6.9 per cent in August 2020 due to the nationwide lockdown imposed to control the spread of COVID-19. The eight core industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
The record contraction in the growth rate of eight core sectors will have its impact on IIP.
The overall breadth was neutral as 1,506 stocks declined while 1,435 stocks advanced.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances