India's industrial production grew in double digit for the second month in a row at 12.3 per cent in June mainly due to strong performance by manufacturing, power and mining sectors, according to official data released on Friday. However, the data showed that the industrial output growth is lower than 19.6 per cent recorded in May this year. It was 6.7 per cent in April.
Participants are eyeing the Bihar elections.
Mining output climbed 23.3 per cent and power generation increased 7.5 per cent in May. The IIP had contracted 33.4 per cent in May 2020. Industrial production has been hit due to the coronavirus pandemic since March last year when it had contracted 18.7 per cent. It shrank 57.3 per cent in April 2020 due to decline in economic activities in the wake of the lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus infections. The IIP had registered a growth of 5.2 per cent in February last year.
The festive season will mean business for the steel industry as it is the time when automotive and consumer appliance companies bump up demand to prepare for higher sales, experts have said. Ranjan Dhar, chief marketing officer at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), said that bookings by auto and consumer appliance industries are 20 per cent higher ahead of the festive season compared to last year. "While this could be for a couple of months, it could normalise later at approximately 10 per cent," he said.
The growth is particularly remarkable because it comes at levels higher than during the pre-Covid times, notes Mahesh Vyas.
Industrial production surged by 13.6 per cent in June mainly due to a low-base effect and good performance by manufacturing, mining and power sectors but the output remained below the pre-pandemic level. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew by 13 per cent in June this year, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Thursday. The mining sector output rose by 23.1 per cent in June while power generation increased by 8.3 per cent.
Equity markets would be mainly driven by global trends and foreign fund trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The BSE and the National Stock Exchange have listed March 7 (Tuesday) as a holiday on account of Holi. However, stock brokers' association ANMI has urged the government, exchanges and Sebi to shift the holiday to March 8 from March 7.
Foreign currency loans raised by Indian companies nosedived to $210 million in the September quarter (Q2), 93.3 per cent less than the year-ago period when five firms raised $3.1 billion. The Q2 amount is the lowest since December 2003 quarter when India Inc raised $191 million. Companies cited volatility in the currency markets, sharp rise in interest rates in the United States, and fund availability in India as the main reasons behind the sharp fall.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Infosys, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, Titan, HDFC Bank, Wipro, HDFC and ITC were among the laggards.
Domestic stock markets would be driven by inflation numbers, global trends, and the last batch of Q4 earnings this week, analysts said. Markets will also react to industrial production data and consumer inflation numbers that were released after market hours on Friday. "Participants will react to macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI first, which were released post-market hours on Friday.
The government has held back the release of complete data of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for April, as was done for the same month last year due to the COVID-19 lockdown. Last year in June, the National Statistical Office (NSO) had held back the release of complete IIP data due to the effect of the nationwide lockdown on factory output. This year too industrial production was hit due to lockdown restrictions imposed by states to curb the second wave of the pandemic.
Led by healthy growth in coal, crude oil, fertilisers, cement and electricity production, output of eight core industries grew to a 13-month high of 18.1 per cent in May this year, according to official data released on Thursday. The growth of core infrastructure sectors expanded by 16.4 per cent in the year-ago period and 9.3 per cent in April this year. The last high growth was recorded in April 2021 when it was 62.6 per cent.
Industrial production declined by 8 per cent in August, mainly due to lower output of manufacturing, mining and power generation sectors, official data showed on Monday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, manufacturing sector production registered a decline of 8.6 per cent, while the output of mining and power segments fell 9.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors expanded by 3.8 per cent in December 2021 against a 0.4 per cent contraction in the same month last year on better show by coal, cement and refinery products, according to the official data released on Monday. Barring crude oil and steel, all sectors recorded positive growth in December 2021. The core sector industries had grown by 3.4 per cent in November 2021.
'Revision of the base year for both CPI and GDP are long overdue.' 'The basic data that went into the 2011-2012 series were mainly from surveys done in 2011 or earlier.' 'We have since seen the emergence of new sectors like platform-based work and online marketing.' 'The employment surveys and the consumption surveys need to reflect these adequately.'
The RBI's policy decision would be the major event driving trading sentiment in the equity market this week, while global cues, foreign funds movement and crude oil prices will be the other key factors to watch out for, analysts said. Markets have been witnessing a rebound recently. However, the move lacks decisiveness amid lingering challenges like global policy tightening due to soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions, they added. "RBI policy, global macro numbers and crude oil prices will set the trend for this week.
The production growth of eight infrastructure sectors slowed down to 4.3 per cent in March due to a decline in the output of coal and crude oil, though for the full 2021-22 fiscal, the core sector recorded a 10.4 per cent expansion, according to official data released on Friday. The eight infrastructure sectors - coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity - had expanded by 6 per cent in February. During April-March 2021-22, the eight sectors grew by 10.4 per cent compared to a contraction of 6.4 per cent in 2020-21. The output of coal and crude oil contracted by 0.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent in March.
Industrial production growth entered positive territory after a gap of two months with a record 22.4 per cent rise in March this year, mainly due to the low-base effect and good show by manufacturing, mining and power sectors. The manufacturing sector -- which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the index of industrial production (IIP) -- grew by 25.8 per cent in March 2021, as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. The mining sector output too grew 6.1 per cent in March, while power generation increased by 22.5 per cent.
Retail inflation declined to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April mainly due to falling prices of vegetables, oils and fats, and came closer to Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, showed government data released Friday. It was for the second month in a row that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remained within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6 per cent. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.
Industrial production declined by 10.4 per cent in July, mainly due to lower output of manufacturing, mining and power generation, as per the government data released on Friday.
Chief economist at State Bank of India has revised downward the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier for FY2023, citing "the way below GDP numbers for the first quarter". The National Statistical Office on Wednesday released the Q1 growth numbers which showed a consensus growth of 13.5 per cent, pulled down by the poor show of the manufacturing sector, which reported a paltry 4.8 per cent expansion in the first three months of FY23, negating the robust show by the services sector. Consensus forecast was 15-16.7 per cent of which the RBI made the highest forecast of 16.7 per cent.
Among the Sensex firms, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Steel, ITC, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra and State Bank of India were the biggest winners. Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Asian Paints, Wipro and Tata Motors were the biggest laggards.
Industrial production rose 3.6 per cent in October, mainly due to better performance of manufacturing and electricity generation sectors, official data showed on Friday.
Trading in the domestic equity market this week will be influenced by quarterly results from TCS and Infosys, besides inflation and industrial production data as well as global trends, analysts said. Movement of the rupee, which has slumped to record lows against the US dollar, will also be tracked by investors, they added. "This week, participants will be eyeing important macroeconomic data viz IIP, CPI and WPI... Besides, the week also marks the beginning of the earnings season with IT majors like TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech and Wipro announcing their numbers along with two other heavyweights Bajaj Auto and HDFC Bank," said Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Performance of the US markets, FIIs' trend, and movement in currency and crude will also remain on their radar, Mishra added.
Industrial production contracted by 1.9 per cent in November, entering the negative territory after a two-month gap, mainly due to poor showing by manufacturing and mining sectors, official data showed on Tuesday. The manufacturing sector -- which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the index of industrial production (IIP) -- recorded a contraction of 1.7 per cent in November 2020, as per data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Mining sector output too witnessed a decline, shrinking 7.3 per cent.
The ministry of statistics and programme implementation on Friday released quick estimates of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) which showed the index value at 88.4 in May against 53.6 in April, indicating a graded pickup in industrial activity. The index stood at 135.4 in May 2019.
Manufacturing sector production registered a decline of 17.1 per cent, while the output of mining and power fell 19.8 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively.
Investors are keenly awaiting the announcement of the macroeconomic data-IIP and CPI due on Tuesday.
Benchmark BSE Sensex gained 130 points on Friday after gains in index majors Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Tata Steel ahead of the release of inflation and factory output data. Recovering from its early losses, the 30-share BSE index ended 130.18 points or 0.22 per cent higher at 59,462.78 in a range-bound trade. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 39.15 points or 0.22 per cent to close at 17,698.15.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
Global markets trends, inflation, release of industrial output data and quarterly earnings will dictate movement of the equity benchmarks this week, analysts said, adding that volatility might continue amid slew of announcements of macroeconomic data at the global level too. Moreover, foreign fund movement, crude oil prices and trend in rupee would also act as major drivers for the equity market, they added. "The direction of global equity markets along with movement in dollar index and crude oil prices will continue to dominate while inflation numbers of the USA on May 11 and inflation and IIP numbers of India on May 12 will also cause volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Volatility is likely to continue in the stock market this week amid Omicron uncertainty and the RBI monetary policy meeting will be a key driver for benchmark indices going ahead, say analysts. It will be an event-packed week for the markets, with RBI policy and several macroeconomic numbers scheduled to be announced, they added. "Volatility is likely to continue amid Omicron uncertainty, RBI credit policy, and macroeconomic numbers. "There are lots of news flows on the Omicron variant which are causing volatility in the market while on the domestic front we will have the outcome of an important monetary policy of RBI that is scheduled on December 8. "We will also have our IIP and inflation numbers this week however they will be released on Friday after market hours," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
'The life expectancy at birth in 2019 was 69.5 years for men and 72 years for women, which came down to 67.5 years and 69.8 years, respectively, in 2020'
The production of eight infrastructure sectors rose by 7.5 per cent in October on healthy performance by the segments of coal, natural gas, refinery products and cement, official data released on Tuesday showed. The output of eight core sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 0.5 per cent in October 2020, according to the data released by the commerce and industry ministry. Core sectors' growth stood at 4.5 per cent in September this year.
Global trends, the last batch of Q2 earnings and domestic macroeconomic data will dictate terms in the equity market, which had an extended weekend last week, analysts said. "FIIs' behaviour along with inflation numbers from US and China will remain key factors for this week. After an extended weekend, Indian markets are likely to start a fresh week with a positive note on the global backdrop. "However, there is a risk of selling pressure at higher levels as we are underperforming the global peers where the near-term texture has changed to 'sell on rise' from 'buy on dip'," Santosh Meena, head (research) at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
The rupee depreciated by 37 paise to close at 79.62 against the US dollar on Thursday despite sustained foreign capital inflows and a positive trend in equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.22 and saw an intra-day high of 79.22 and a low of 79.94 against the American currency. It finally ended at 79.62, down 37 paise over its previous close of 79.25.
After 3 weeks of consecutive rally, this week was a breather for the index, which corrected by almost 1.5%.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 1.4 per cent in November as most components like manufacturing, electricity, mining, primary goods, and consumer durables witnessed a slowdown, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Wednesday. This is on the base of a decline of 1.7 per cent in November 2020 and before the new Covid variant started impacting economic activity. IIP growth was lower than the 4 per cent expansion recorded in the previous month but was better than a 1.6 per cent contraction seen in November 2020. Separately, rising prices of kitchen staples pushed retail inflation, or rate of price increase, to 5.59 per cent in December 2021, bringing it close to the upper band of Reserve Bank's comfort zone.
Gross collection of tax on corporate and individual earnings jumped nearly 24 per cent so far in the current fiscal year that started on April 1, the tax department said on Sunday. The gross collection of taxes on corporate earnings rose 16.74 per cent during April 1 to October 8, while personal income tax collection jumped 32.30 per cent, the tax department said in a statement. Direct tax collection came at Rs 8.98 lakh crore between April 1 to October 8, 2022, 23.8 per cent higher than the gross collection in the corresponding period a year ago.
Barring crude oil and cement, all other sectors recorded positive growth in November. In October, these core sectors' output had grown by 8.4 per cent. In February this year, the growth rate contracted to 3.3 per cent.
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