Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
Foreign brokerages have started to cut their year-end targets for the Nifty 50 index amid the ongoing West Asia conflict.
Indian stock markets tumbled sharply with the Sensex falling 800 points and nearly 4 lakh crore wiped out in a single session. Here are the 6 key factors, including rupee weakness and global cues, behind the crash.
FPIs net sold equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion in 2025 -- the highest annual net sale on record.
The India-US trade deal has offered a much-needed breather for the Indian information technology (IT) industry, which has been grappling with global macroeconomic uncertainty and subdued client spending over the past few years.
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew over Rs 22,530 crore ($2.5 billion) from Indian equities so far this month amid rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar, continuing their selling streak from last year. This came following an outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore ($18.9 billion) recorded in 2025, triggered by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions and concerns over potential US tariffs and stretched market valuations.
Indian equity markets experienced a volatile session, with the Sensex and Nifty recovering some ground after a significant plunge the previous day. Gains were driven by PSU bank, IT, and metal stocks, but concerns over rising fuel prices and geopolitical tensions limited the recovery.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Domestic equities surged on Tuesday, posting their best single-day gains in more than eight months after a long-awaited trade deal between India and the US. The deal, which lowered tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from 50 per cent, significantly improved investor sentiment and lifted a key overhang for the market.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a sharp decline in early trading due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, driving crude oil prices higher. Global market bearishness and foreign fund outflows further contributed to investor unease.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be major driving factors for market movement this week, analysts said. Unabated capital infusion by domestic institutional investors have supported the positive trend in the stock market last week, traders said.
Foreign investors fled Indian equities in 2025 at a scale never seen before, pulling out a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18 billion) as volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, especially potential US tariffs, and stretched valuations eroded risk appetite, though flows are expected to turn sustainably positive in 2026.
Investing in gold trumped most other asset classes in terms of compounded annualised returns over the long term, suggests a report by FundsIndia.
Indian stock market benchmarks Sensex and Nifty rebounded by over 1% on Monday, driven by value-buying in banking stocks after a three-day slump. Key gainers included UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, and Mahindra & Mahindra.
Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.
'AUM reached an all-time high of Rs 79.9 trillion in October 2025, driven by strong retail participation and record SIP inflows of Rs 29,529 crore from over 94.5 million contributing accounts.'
The BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 declined around 4.5 per cent each since the start of the West Asia conflict.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities in February, marking the highest monthly inflow in 17 months, driven by factors such as the interim India-US trade deal, correction in domestic market valuations, and strong corporate earnings.
'The day that the market realises that they've overspent (on AI) and there's a sudden collapse in the capex, then India can start outperforming again.'
Indian benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant crash in early trade, triggered by a sharp increase in crude oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Households should moderate large discretionary expenses for the time being.
'They should prioritise essential spending. They should maintain an emergency fund covering 6 to 12 months of expenses.'
Indian equities on Dalal Street saw volatility. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for Feb 25, 2026.
Indian equity markets experienced a volatile trading day, with the Sensex and Nifty closing almost flat. Market sentiment was influenced by global cues, US-Iran talks, and profit-booking activities.
Their assets under management (AUM) rose from Rs 1.04 trillion (January 31, 2025) to Rs 1.75 trillion (January 31, 2026), an increase of 68.3 per cent.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and foreign fund outflows.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply by nearly 1 per cent on Monday, driven by strong buying in power, banking, and financial stocks.
Stock markets closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, driven by gains in bank, IT and capital goods shares.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty extended their gains for the third straight session on Wednesday, driven by last-hour buying in bank, metal, and FMCG shares.
Benchmark Sensex tumbled 1,236 points or 1.5 per cent while Nifty closed near 25,450 on Thursday following an across-the-board sell-off amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty advanced for the third straight session on Tuesday driven by firm global cues and optimism over India-US trade agreement, even as investors turned to profit-booking at higher levels.
The rupee appreciated 13 paise to close at 90.34 against the US dollar on Thursday, on trade deal optimism and overnight decline in commodity prices, even as the upside remained capped as investors look for more clarity on the India-US trade deal.
Stock markets rebounded on Friday with the benchmark Sensex closing higher by 316 points after heavy buying in banking and metal shares amid optimism over trade deal progresses and India's participation in Pax Silica.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled more than 1 per cent on Friday due to across-the-board selloff, especially in metal, IT and commodity stocks, tracking sluggish global markets.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty closed on a flat note in a choppy session on Wednesday as gains in PSU banks and auto shares were offset by losses in IT stocks.
Indian equity markets closed higher, driven by gains in PSU bank, auto, and financial stocks, following the US Supreme Court's decision on tariffs. Sensex climbed 479.95 points to 83,294.66, and Nifty advanced 141.75 points to 25,713.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
They accounted for 39.1 per cent of the premium paid to trade equity options in September 2025.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, amid a weak trend in global stock markets.
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