A think tank, GTRI, has urged India to resist US pressure regarding its UPI policies, advocating for competition, policy autonomy, and a sustainable payments ecosystem. This comes as the Lok Sabha passed a bill allowing charges on UPI, and the US has criticised India's digital payment systems, raising concerns about the future of India's digital payment landscape.
A new Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on UPI transactions above Rs 2,000, effective October 15, could force small merchants and price-sensitive consumers to revert to cash, according to economic think tank GTRI. The move, which introduces a 0.4 per cent MDR with a Rs 300 cap and concessional rates for specific categories, is questioned by GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, who suggests it's not a revenue issue for the government but potentially a response to US pressure regarding UPI and RuPay's preferential market position.
India's total goods trade with BRICS nations more than doubled from FY21 to FY26, reaching USD 417.5 billion, but a significant surge in imports, particularly from China and Russia, has caused India's trade deficit with the bloc to more than triple, reaching USD 226.1 billion.
A think tank, GTRI, has urged India to resist US pressure regarding its UPI policies, advocating for the defence of competition, policy autonomy, and the long-term sustainability of its payments ecosystem. This comes as the Lok Sabha passed a bill allowing charges on UPI transactions, a move GTRI suggests should not be influenced by foreign trade complaints.
India-EU FTA opens a bigger European market for Indian carmakers while giving European brands greater access to India.
The Finance Ministry has refuted allegations that US pressure influenced the decision to levy a 0.4 per cent Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on select UPI payments. The ministry clarified that the NPCI guidelines prioritise RuPay credit cards on UPI to promote domestic alternatives and ensure a self-sustaining revenue model for smaller domestic companies, countering claims of favouring foreign payment providers.
'All these reports and announcements by the US seem like attempts to gain a lever in trade deal negotiations with India.'
The US senate last week passed a bill that would allow Washington to impose tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy.
India's trade deficit with China is expected to reach $106 billion in 2025 as imports are rising faster than the country's exports to the neighbouring country, think tank GTRI said on Friday.
Monthly gold imports have declined to 25-30 tonnes from 70-80 tonnes while recycling of old jewellery has increased following the recent hike in import duties.
A recently finalised peace deal between the US and Iran, set to be signed on June 19, is expected to significantly benefit India's economy by boosting exports to West Asia, stabilising the rupee, and easing inflationary pressures, according to exporters and experts.
India has successfully negotiated the protection of its steel export interests under the free trade agreement with the UK, ensuring 85 per cent of its outbound shipments remain outside Britain's steel safeguard measures. This consensus addresses a key sticking point ahead of the comprehensive economic and trade agreement (CETA) coming into force on July 15.
China's export curbs on critical minerals crucial for India's electronics sectors are no longer mere warnings but a wake-up call for New Delhi, underscoring the need for urgent measures like reverse-engineering of low- to mid-tech imports to cut overreliance on Beijing, think tank GTRI said on Thursday.
Essential and strategic items such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and energy products like oil, gas, coal and LNG are exempted from the 27 per cent import duty announced by the US on Wednesday, according to think tank GTRI.
India's proposal to impose retaliatory import duty on certain US products in response to American tariffs on steel and aluminium could cast a shadow over ongoing negotiations for a trade agreement between the two countries, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that if the US engages in consultations with India on the matter or withdraws tariffs, a resolution may be reached.
Indian exporters are unlikely to receive direct tariff refunds from the US's $166 billion payout, but the rollback of reciprocal duties is enhancing their pricing power and improving order prospects, particularly in textiles, apparel, and engineering goods.
The depreciation of Indian rupee against the US dollar is expected to push the country's import bill by about $15 billion, think tank GTRI said on Thursday. Compared to December last year, the Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated 2.34 per cent against the US dollar, moving from Rs 83.25 to Rs 85.20, while the Chinese Yuan has weakened by 0.06 per cent, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.
The Indian government has issued an updated Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for processing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) applications, aiming to clear all proposals within 12 weeks, a two-week extension from the previous 10-week target, to ensure a fully paperless and transparent process.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
India will now face a lower reciprocal tariff of 10 per cent, down from 25 per cent, after US President Donald Trump announced a new global levy on items imported into America in the wake of the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping duties on several nations.
Following a Supreme Court setback, Donald Trump has announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, impacting international trade relations and raising concerns about economic repercussions.
The European Union (EU) has suspended export benefits to sectors such as textiles and plastics under a preferential scheme for India and two other countries from January 1, a move that will impact the country's shipment to the 27-nation bloc. The development is important as the two sides are likely to announce the closure of negotiations for a free tarde agreement (FTA) on January 27.
Countries that raised concerns about the quality of Indian spices have called for urgent attention and action, Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said on Wednesday. The stakes are high since India exported spices worth about $692.5 million to the United States (US), Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and Maldives in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), it said. During FY24, India's spice exports were worth $4.25 billion, accounting for a 12 per cent share of the global spice exports.
India's merchandise exports grew in the first three weeks of November compared with the same period last year, according to preliminary government data, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Tuesday. The uptick comes despite globa
India has completely protected the interests of its agriculture and dairy sector in the India-US trade agreement.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
A trade deal makes sense only if it is fair and reciprocal. If the cost is strategic dependence or loss of policy space, waiting is the wiser option, asserts Ajay Srivastava.
The bilateral trade between India and China has been growing at a healthy rate, but the trade gap remains sharply tilted in Beijing's favour. India has time and again flagged its concern over the ballooning trade deficit and the non-trade barriers faced by Indian goods in the Chinese market.
The escalating trade war between the US and China is expected to benefit Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, according to experts. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (PTI) President S C Ralhan said that imposition of higher tariffs by the US on China will shift demand towards India, which exported goods worth Rs 86 billion to the US in 2024-25.
US President Donald Trump's plan to sign an executive order to cut prescription drug prices by 30-80 per cent could lead to a global price adjustment with pharma firms pushing lower-cost countries like India to raise prices, according to the economic think tank GTRI. The US move could push prices in lower-cost countries like India as manufacturers would seek to recover losses and R&D costs from these nations.
The US is expected to push for sweeping changes in India's policies, ranging from tariff reductions to regulatory overhauls, that could benefit American firms and exporters, under the proposed bilateral trade agreement with India, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.
Since India relies heavily on specialised imported fasteners for critical applications in industries, such as automobiles, aerospace, electronics, and defence, their sudden unavailability will jeopardise production.
The USA's steep 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods entering America will severely impact exports and job creation in labour-intensive export sectors such as shrimp, apparel, leather and gems and jewellery. Exporters said that the imposition of a 25 per cent penalty on India over and above the 25 per cent tariffs move will disrupt the flow of Indian goods to its largest export market.
Communication channels between India and the US are open to resolve the ongoing tariff issues, and the glitch in trade ties is only temporary, given the long-term relationship between the two nations, government sources said on Wednesday. The US' 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports to America came into effect from August 27, barring a few sectors.
Under an Executive Order issued by the US administration on July 30, 2025, goods valued above USD 100 will be subject to customs duties in America with effect from August 29 onwards.
From labelling India the 'Tariff King' to slapping sweeping import duties, US President Donald Trump has steadily hardened his trade stance on India. These announcements are being seen as a pressure tactic to get New Delhi to agree to demands made by the US in the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).
India's merchandise exports to the US rose by 16.93 per cent to $8.83 billion in May, while imports dipped by 5.76 per cent to $3.62 billion during the month, according to the commerce ministry data. During April-May, the country's exports to the US increased by 21.78 per cent to $17.25 billion, while imports rose by 25.8 per cent to $8.87 billion, the data showed.
The weaker rupee will push the country's import bill due to higher payments for crude oil, coal, vegetable oil, gold, diamonds, electronics, machinery, plastics, and chemicals, economic think tank GTRI said on Friday. Citing an example, it said the depreciating domestic currency will increase India's gold import bill, especially as global gold prices have jumped 31.25 per cent, rising from $65,877 per kg in January 2024 to $86,464 per kg in January 2025.
Goods from sectors, including agriculture, precious stones, chemicals, pharma, medical devices, electricals, and machinery may get impacted if the US will go ahead with imposing reciprocal tariffs on Indian products, according to experts. They said that these sectors could face additional customs duties from the Trump administration because of the high tariff differential or gap, which is the difference between the import duties imposed by the US and India on a product.
Any reduction in the customs duty on smartphone parts in the forthcoming budget will harm India's developing component ecosystem, discourage investment, increase imports, and make local firms uncompetitive, potentially resulting in job losses, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. India's smartphone industry is a 'Make in India' success story, with 2023-24 production reaching $49.2 billion and exports at $15.6 billion, making smartphones the fourth-largest export after diesel, aviation fuel, and polished diamonds.
