India's trade deficit with China is expected to reach $106 billion in 2025 as imports are rising faster than the country's exports to the neighbouring country, think tank GTRI said on Friday.
India will now face a lower reciprocal tariff of 10 per cent, down from 25 per cent, after US President Donald Trump announced a new global levy on items imported into America in the wake of the Supreme Court verdict against his sweeping duties on several nations.
Following a Supreme Court setback, Donald Trump has announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, impacting international trade relations and raising concerns about economic repercussions.
China's export curbs on critical minerals crucial for India's electronics sectors are no longer mere warnings but a wake-up call for New Delhi, underscoring the need for urgent measures like reverse-engineering of low- to mid-tech imports to cut overreliance on Beijing, think tank GTRI said on Thursday.
The European Union (EU) has suspended export benefits to sectors such as textiles and plastics under a preferential scheme for India and two other countries from January 1, a move that will impact the country's shipment to the 27-nation bloc. The development is important as the two sides are likely to announce the closure of negotiations for a free tarde agreement (FTA) on January 27.
India has completely protected the interests of its agriculture and dairy sector in the India-US trade agreement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
Essential and strategic items such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and energy products like oil, gas, coal and LNG are exempted from the 27 per cent import duty announced by the US on Wednesday, according to think tank GTRI.
India's proposal to impose retaliatory import duty on certain US products in response to American tariffs on steel and aluminium could cast a shadow over ongoing negotiations for a trade agreement between the two countries, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that if the US engages in consultations with India on the matter or withdraws tariffs, a resolution may be reached.
'The immediate impact for India will be very minimal as the share of Venezuela in our total overseas production is very low.'
A trade deal makes sense only if it is fair and reciprocal. If the cost is strategic dependence or loss of policy space, waiting is the wiser option, asserts Ajay Srivastava.
India's merchandise exports grew in the first three weeks of November compared with the same period last year, according to preliminary government data, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Tuesday. The uptick comes despite globa
The depreciation of Indian rupee against the US dollar is expected to push the country's import bill by about $15 billion, think tank GTRI said on Thursday. Compared to December last year, the Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated 2.34 per cent against the US dollar, moving from Rs 83.25 to Rs 85.20, while the Chinese Yuan has weakened by 0.06 per cent, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.
The escalating trade war between the US and China is expected to benefit Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, according to experts. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (PTI) President S C Ralhan said that imposition of higher tariffs by the US on China will shift demand towards India, which exported goods worth Rs 86 billion to the US in 2024-25.
The bilateral trade between India and China has been growing at a healthy rate, but the trade gap remains sharply tilted in Beijing's favour. India has time and again flagged its concern over the ballooning trade deficit and the non-trade barriers faced by Indian goods in the Chinese market.
The USA's steep 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods entering America will severely impact exports and job creation in labour-intensive export sectors such as shrimp, apparel, leather and gems and jewellery. Exporters said that the imposition of a 25 per cent penalty on India over and above the 25 per cent tariffs move will disrupt the flow of Indian goods to its largest export market.
Communication channels between India and the US are open to resolve the ongoing tariff issues, and the glitch in trade ties is only temporary, given the long-term relationship between the two nations, government sources said on Wednesday. The US' 50 per cent tariffs on Indian exports to America came into effect from August 27, barring a few sectors.
Under an Executive Order issued by the US administration on July 30, 2025, goods valued above USD 100 will be subject to customs duties in America with effect from August 29 onwards.
Countries that raised concerns about the quality of Indian spices have called for urgent attention and action, Delhi-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said on Wednesday. The stakes are high since India exported spices worth about $692.5 million to the United States (US), Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and Maldives in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), it said. During FY24, India's spice exports were worth $4.25 billion, accounting for a 12 per cent share of the global spice exports.
US President Donald Trump's plan to sign an executive order to cut prescription drug prices by 30-80 per cent could lead to a global price adjustment with pharma firms pushing lower-cost countries like India to raise prices, according to the economic think tank GTRI. The US move could push prices in lower-cost countries like India as manufacturers would seek to recover losses and R&D costs from these nations.
From labelling India the 'Tariff King' to slapping sweeping import duties, US President Donald Trump has steadily hardened his trade stance on India. These announcements are being seen as a pressure tactic to get New Delhi to agree to demands made by the US in the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).
The US is expected to push for sweeping changes in India's policies, ranging from tariff reductions to regulatory overhauls, that could benefit American firms and exporters, under the proposed bilateral trade agreement with India, think tank GTRI said on Sunday.
On August 7, the US president announced doubling tariffs on Indian goods to 50 percent for India's purchases of Russian crude oil, but gave a 21-day window to negotiate an agreement.
India's merchandise exports to the US rose by 16.93 per cent to $8.83 billion in May, while imports dipped by 5.76 per cent to $3.62 billion during the month, according to the commerce ministry data. During April-May, the country's exports to the US increased by 21.78 per cent to $17.25 billion, while imports rose by 25.8 per cent to $8.87 billion, the data showed.
Amid uncertainty over trade talks with the US, Prime Minister Modi asserts India's commitment to protecting the interests of farmers and fishermen, vowing no compromise on their behalf.
Since India relies heavily on specialised imported fasteners for critical applications in industries, such as automobiles, aerospace, electronics, and defence, their sudden unavailability will jeopardise production.
The commerce ministry on Friday held consultations with key stakeholders, including shipping lines, exporters, container firms, and other departments, to assess the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on India's overseas trade, an official said. The meeting was chaired by Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal.
Goods from sectors, including agriculture, precious stones, chemicals, pharma, medical devices, electricals, and machinery may get impacted if the US will go ahead with imposing reciprocal tariffs on Indian products, according to experts. They said that these sectors could face additional customs duties from the Trump administration because of the high tariff differential or gap, which is the difference between the import duties imposed by the US and India on a product.
India must be cautious while negotiating the proposed bilateral trade agreement with the US, as the absence of Fast Track Trade Authority in America makes any pact vulnerable to Congressional changes, economic think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. It also said that the certification process allows the US to effectively re-negotiate the trade agreement after it is signed, demanding domestic legal changes, regulatory reforms, and policy shifts that could undermine India's sovereignty.
'As negotiations continue, the path forward demands not only diplomatic skill, but also vigilance against legal asymmetries embedded in America's trade playbook.'
The weaker rupee will push the country's import bill due to higher payments for crude oil, coal, vegetable oil, gold, diamonds, electronics, machinery, plastics, and chemicals, economic think tank GTRI said on Friday. Citing an example, it said the depreciating domestic currency will increase India's gold import bill, especially as global gold prices have jumped 31.25 per cent, rising from $65,877 per kg in January 2024 to $86,464 per kg in January 2025.
Imposition of high tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada by the US is expected to help Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, experts say.
Any reduction in the customs duty on smartphone parts in the forthcoming budget will harm India's developing component ecosystem, discourage investment, increase imports, and make local firms uncompetitive, potentially resulting in job losses, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. India's smartphone industry is a 'Make in India' success story, with 2023-24 production reaching $49.2 billion and exports at $15.6 billion, making smartphones the fourth-largest export after diesel, aviation fuel, and polished diamonds.
Finding solutions to address non-tariff barriers would be important for the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the European Union (EU) and both sides are actively working on resolving these issues, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday. He said the two sides are "pretty" close to finalising the talks for the proposed free trade pact.
I'...additional concessions, such as opening government procurement, reducing agricultural subsidies, weakening patent protections, and allowing unrestricted data flows -- demands India has resisted for decades.'
Of Trump's reciprocal tariffs and trade deals
Here is a list of Q & As to explain these issues and implications of the US move.
The trade war between the US and China is expected to benefit Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, sources said. They said the country was the fourth-largest gainer when the US imposed higher duties on Chinese goods during US President Donald Trump's first tenure.
The escalation in the US-China trade war is expected to help India increase its exports and attract investments from American companies, think tank GTRI said on Friday. He said that last month, the US Senate introduced two bills that could intensify the trade war and have major global economic impacts if passed.
India's trade deficit with China neared $100 billion in FY25, amid escalating concerns of dumping, data released by the commerce department on Wednesday showed. Chinese imports rose by 11.5 per cent to $113.45 billion, while outbound shipments to the neighbouring country saw 14.5 per cent contraction to $14.2 billion.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Investor Information - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances