Gold prices could go up 12.5 per cent and touch $1,800 per ounce in the second half of 2012, according to the Thomson Reuters GFMS Gold Survey, released in Beijing on Tuesday. Improved investment sentiment for gold will help drive prices up, said the survey. Presently, gold is trading at $1,600.
The rapidly widening gap between mine production and jewellery demand could lead to a strong rally in gold prices culminating in a fresh high this year, according to the latest forecast by Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS).The independent London-based consultancy and research company projected that the metal could hit the psychological $1,100-an-ounce barrier this year.
The London-based global precious metals consultancy firm, however, warned that the rally may not be straight as a summer lull or the need for inflationary pressures to build could result in a period of sub-$900 prices in the short term.
The month of March could be worst in many years, with imports estimated only around 18 tonnes amid the coronavirus pandemic and the nationwide lockdown, said an industry player. The import in March 2019 was 72.5 tonnes, according to the GFMS data.
The worsening demand for jewellery has already started impacting jobs and karigars or goldsmiths.
Chinese gold demand slid to a four-year low of 866 tonnes.
Geopolitical climate and equity markets as supportive for gold's role as a risk hedge.
Traders have used this as an opportunity to stock up silver.
Round-tipping creates the opportunity for exporters to source funds at a much cheaper cost, which they divert to some other business.
Veterans recall they haven't seen gold falling for 3 years in a row.
The high import duty on gold, local taxes and restrictions on imports are leading to a rise in smuggling of the commodity into the country.
Around Diwali, the premiums had gone up to as much as 3.5 per cent.
If hallmarking data are anything to go by, the proportion of spurious jewellery in the country might have shrunk significantly in the past five years.
China produced the most gold in world in 2012, making it the largest producer for the sixth straight year even as it remained the second largest consumer of the yellow metal after India.
Barclays estimates $1,900 an oz this year; analysts say ultra-low interest rates in advanced economies to ensure demand keeps rising.
Reversal is because of strengthening rupee, subdued demand, and lack of reasons for bulls to continue positions and speculation of reduction in import duty.
Silver prices have fallen by eight per cent in 2015 to Rs 34,290 a kg.
The correlation between crop yield and expenditure on gold is positive.
India's jewellery consumption in Sept quarter increases 5% to 193 tonnes.
Exports of gold jewellery fell 23.13 per cent to $1153 million.
Gold prices may rise above $1,300 per troy ounce by 2011 on record demand from investors worried about inflation, currencies and sovereign debt, a survey by the United Kingdom-based consultancy GFMS has said.
The gold rally can be attributed largely to fears of further losses in traditional investments that are highly leveraged on a problematic subprime mortgage market, pushing investors towards safe assets such as gold.
According to data compiled by London-based Gold Field Minerals Services (GFMS) for the World Gold Council (WGC), the combination of a robust economy and buoyant stock market helped fuel purchases of the metal during the first eight to nine months of the year, despite gold breaching the psychologically significant level of Rs 9,000 per 10 grams in September.
Non-resident Indians are bringing gold into the country by taking advantage of rules that allow each individual to carry 1 kg of the metal, helping traders cope with restrictions on imports during the peak wedding season.
In India 24-carat gold is used mostly in coins and bars
India's total gold imports in the current year can be estimated at 810 tonnes against 740 tonnes excluding replenishment of 50-60 tonnes.
SeverStal, CSN and ThyssenKrupp may be likely bidders
In the past two years, investors in gold have lost money.
Good monsoon, farm loan waiver -- the two key reasons behind more customers in jewellery shops
India's gold holding in forex reserves rose to 560.3 tonnes by the end of March 2018.
Gold prices this year are higher than last year, and the goods and services tax is an additional burden for consumers
Smuggled gold, which is selling sharply lower than the spot market price, is also responsible for discounts not ending. Some consumers are selling high amounts of gold.
Recent recovery in the white metal was reflected in a falling gold to silver price ratio.
Irrespective of the global movement, gold prices in India are nearing the level of Rs 34,000 per 10 grams in the physical markets.
Duty changes in the Budget make refining unviable.
India will also launch a sovereign gold bond to lower physical demand.
The Modi government's decision to demonetise Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes will drive up interest in the bullion market
Report says gold being exported by persons of Indian origin and routed through Dubai
Official sources say that the finance ministry is aware of the possible spike in smuggling activity and has already asked intelligence agencies to tighten their vigilance and come down on the unofficial entry of gold into India.
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