Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
'India has formed tremendous resilience and still a strong growth.'
Quick commerce is proving to be a solid business proposition, with companies like Zomato's Blinkit and Y Combinator-backed Zepto recently registering growth, charting paths to profitability. Blinkit logged its highest gross order value (GOV) and customer transactions in June and July, showing a positive contribution for the first time in the quarter ended June 2023. Deepinder Goyal, Zomato's co-founder and chief executive officer (CEO), predicted that Blinkit would deliver more value to shareholders than the core food delivery business in the next decade.
Automobile dealers' body FADA on Thursday sought a cut in GST on two-wheelers from 28 per cent to 18 per cent, saying the segment being essential for millions should not be categorised as luxury item. The industry body said it has appealed to the finance minister, chair of the GST Council, all GST Council members, the ministry of heavy industries, which supervises the automobile sector, and the ministry of road transport & highways. This timely and decisive intervention would help in making two-wheelers more affordable, reviving demand and reinvigorating an industry that has seen a significant slump in sales over the past few years, the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said in a statement.
The June quarter numbers of the country's largest listed healthcare services provider, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (Apollo), were in line with Street estimates on the operational front. Net profit estimates, however, missed expectations due to higher interest and tax outgo. The revenue performance of the core hospital segment was robust, registering a 13 per cent increase over the year-ago quarter.
The Centre's ambitious Rs 6-trillion National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) could fall short of yearly targets for the current fiscal year (FY22) and the next one as well (FY23), partly due to the long gestation period in monetising big-ticket railway infrastructure, Business Standard has learnt from sources in the finance and rail ministries. Officials say the major chunk of railway monetisation will happen from FY24 onwards because leasing some of the infrastructure, like stadiums and dedicated freight corridor, will not happen anytime soon. Rail infra is expected to be the second-biggest contributor to the NMP, with about Rs 1.52 trillion worth of assets to be monetised.
Expenditure on new projects slowed down for the second quarter in a row amid an uncertain global environment and higher borrowing costs. There were new projects worth a cumulative Rs 3.26 trillion in the July-September period, according to data provided by project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This figure is much less than Rs 4.39 trillion in the June quarter (Q1FY23) and Rs 8.46 trillion in the March quarter (Q4FY22).
India's decision to ban the export of non-basmati white rice has pushed up global prices, prompting multilateral lending agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to call for a reconsideration of the move. Though nothing has been spelled out yet officially, sources said, the government might consider requests for government-to-government sale of non-basmati white rice, especially to West African nations where India is a major supplier. Also, traders and exporters of specialty regional rice varieties like sona masuri or gobindo bhog feel that they have been short-changed.
Amid better semiconductor chip supplies, the Indian automotive industry posted an 8 percent growth in production of vehicles across categories for the month of May, with three-wheelers (20 per cent) and passenger vehicles (16 per cent) leading the pack. Exports, however, dipped 21 per cent at an industry level. The industry also recorded its highest-ever May wholesales of domestic passenger vehicles (334,802 units), riding on high demand for sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and better supplies of semiconductor chips.
Adani Enterprises, the flagship of Adani Group, said on Wednesday new businesses of renewables, data centres, airports and roads account for more than 33 per cent of earnings and it will complete all infrastructure projects on time. "We are laser focused on continuing our business momentum, in this market volatility. "We are confident in our internal controls, compliance and corporate governance.
India's opening stocks of wheat in the central pool are expected to be 19.5-20 million tonnes as on April 1, 2022, the lowest in the last three years, but much higher than the normative level required for maintaining a buffer and strategic reserve, trade and market sources said. In accordance with the buffer and strategic reserve norms, India should have a wheat stock of 7.5 million tonnes in the central pool as on April 1 each year and this year's stocks, though the lowest in the last three years, will still be over 160 per cent more than what is required. On the export front, both government and trade sources are unanimous that this year (FY22) they will be 7-7.25 million tonnes, a record, while in the next financial year, they might touch even 10 million tonnes if the current momentum is maintained.
The broking industry's pecking order is set to change with Groww, a fin-tech startup from Bengaluru, poised to topple the industry's poster boy, Zerodha, as the leading brokerage in the number of active investors. According to data provided by the portal Topsharebrokers.com, Zerodha has 6.32 million active investors, while Groww is at 5.99 million. It is projected that Groww, which has grown at a much faster clip over the past two years, will surpass Zerodha this month, or next month.
Tata Motors on Monday launched the country's first CNG truck in the medium and heavy commercial (M&HCV) vehicle segment in the 28- and 19-tonne nodes. Most truck makers, including Tata Motors, currently offer CNG only in the small and light commercial vehicle segments. The company also launched a fleet of seven trucks in the intermediary and light commercial vehicle (I&LCV) segment, meant for varied applications.
These stocks offer the best combination of maximum 'buy' recommendations from brokerages and share price upside over the next 12 months.
Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.
Investors are pushing back more often against companies' resolutions on what is paid out to top executives. In the first four months of financial year 2022-23 (FY23), there have already been five such rejections, according to shareholder voting data from tracker Adrian, a platform maintained by the proxy advisory firm Institutional Investor Advisory Services India (IiAS). Two of these have been at multiplex chain PVR and direct-to-home company Dish TV India.
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
Tata Steel has built an iron ore chest of nearly 600 million tonnes (mt) and will look for more as it prepares for life beyond 2030 when its legacy captive mines come up for auction. The lease for four of its existing iron ore mines -- Joda East, Noamundi, Katamati, and Khondbond -- that feed the domestic operation with low-cost iron ore is going to expire in 2030, following changes in mining regulations. The year will also coincide with Tata Steel's ambitious target of doubling steelmaking capacity in India to 40 mt, increasing the need for iron ore. The company is pushing the pedal to ensure that it has enough resources to meet enhanced needs.
Hindustan Zinc (HZL), a subsidiary of Vedanta, announced an interim dividend of Rs 21 per share last week, resulting in an outflow of Rs 8,863 crore. The announcement has turned the spotlight on India Inc's dividend-paying policy - more so for reasons driving the generosity of firms. An analysis of BSE 500 companies by Business Standard Research Bureau shows that some of the top 20 dividend-paying companies in 2021-22 (FY22) include Vedanta, Tata Consultancy Services, HZL, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), Indian Oil Corporation (IndianOil), Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Reliance Industries (RIL), and Bajaj Auto, among others.
Among the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Wipro, Bajaj Finserv, HCL Technologies, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were the biggest laggards. IndusInd Bank, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, NTPC, Reliance Industries, HDFC and Tata Steel were the prominent winners.
A day after the promoters of Adani Group prepaid $1.1 billion loans, one of the group's listed entities - Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) - announced that it would prepay loans of up to Rs 5,000 crore by next month-end so as to improve its financial metrics. The company is targeting an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of around Rs 15,000 crore this financial year. This was revealed by Karan Adani, chief executive officer (CEO) and whole-time director of APSEZ, while announcing the September-December 2022 results.
The sector seems set for a rally that may be somewhat temporary.
The government expects indirect tax collection to be lower than the Budget Estimate (BE) of Rs 13.38 trillion this fiscal year, despite prospects of netting goods and services tax (GST) in large amounts, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj has said. "Indirect tax collection may see lower realisation than budgeted on account of cuts in excise and customs duties. "We could see a shortfall of about Rs 1.5 trillion on account of those," he told Business Standard.
Investors' wealth climbed Rs 3.20 lakh crore as markets staged a smart comeback on Wednesday after falling in the last eight trading sessions. The BSE Sensex rallied 448.96 points or 0.76 per cent to settle at 59,411.08. During the day, it jumped 513.33 points or 0.87 per cent to 59,475.45.
The country's current account deficit is likely to hit a three-year high of 1.8 per cent or $43.81 billion in FY22, as against a surplus of 0.9 per cent or $23.91 billion in FY21, a report said on Thursday. According to an assessment by India Ratings, the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has moderated to $17.3 billion or 1.96 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY22 as against $8.2 billion or 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period, and massively down from $23.02 billion or 2.74 per cent in Q3, which was a 13-quarter high. The improvement in the key numbers are due to the remarkable improvement in merchandise exports in FY22, when it grew 42.4 per cent as against a negative 7.5 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY121.
Auto industry volumes have grown by 2.5 per cent overall, led by domestic sales of three-wheelers, two-wheelers and passenger vehicles (PVs) in the first quarter of this financial year. Analysts predict an 18 per cent growth in revenues for automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and profit growth of 69 per cent year-on-year (YoY). However, on a sequential basis, a decline in revenues as well as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins is expected.
RBI's projection of retail inflation at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal is neither too high to deter private consumption, nor so low as to weaken inducement to invest, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. However, entrenched inflation may prolong the tightening cycle and therefore, borrowing costs may stay 'higher for longer', it said. The Economic Survey 2022-23 was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
Stocks of new-age companies have seen a mixed performance thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). While those of One97 Communications (parent company of Paytm), PB Fintech and Zomato have surged up to 63 per cent year-to-date (YTD), FSN e-commerce, the parent company of Nykaa, however, has dropped 14 per cent YTD. By comparison, Nifty50 and Nifty 500 indices have advanced 7 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, during the period, ACE Equity data show.
A looming global shortage of diesel in Europe presents India with more than one opportunity to profit from strong margins. A shortage of the fuel, a key contributor to inflation, has been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine, and western sanctions on Russian fuel supplies. The slowdown in natural gas supply means the West needs diesel to heat their homes this winter.
Only 80.6 per cent of the Rs 6-trillion allocation has been spent by February, data from the Controller General of Accounts shows.
Fresh formal job creation declined sequentially for a third straight month in February to fall to a 21-month low, signaling pressure in the employment market. These are the findings from the latest payroll data released by the Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) on Thursday. The number of new monthly subscribers under the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) declined 10 per cent sequentially to 738,052 in February from 819,659 in January.
While the corporate sector has benefited from massive capital expenditure, leading to sky-rocketing stock prices, investors would do well to keep an eye on the macroeconomic picture and government finances, not just corporate profits, for signs of trouble, alerts Debashis Basu.
Indians remitted close to $2 billion in November under the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) liberalised remittance scheme (LRS), latest data released by the central bank showed. Outward remittances under the scheme jumped 29 per cent to $1.99 billion compared to $1.54 billion in the year-ago month. Sequentially, outward remittances under the scheme were up about 3.5 per cent.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty buckled under selling pressure after a nine-session rally on Monday, as massive sell-off in IT, tech and telecom counters unnerved investors.
A decision on the interest rate for close to 60 million active subscribers of the Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) is likely to be taken in the next Central Board of Trustee (CBT) meeting, starting on March 25. A letter from the social security organisation regarding the convening of the 233rd CBT meeting was sent to all the board members last week, soliciting their presence in the meeting. Although the venue and the agenda haven't been drawn out yet, sources familiar with the matter say that the interest rate is unlikely to go below 8 per cent level amid a rising interest rate scenario across the globe.
After bumbling for years since 2014, the Modi government seems to believe that massive government expenditure will lead us to prosperity supported by 'seat-of-the-pants' decision-making, observes Debashis Basu.
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
The Nifty IT has been one of the worst-performing indices on the bourses this calendar year. Rising concerns of a potential global recession, which investors fear can dampen demand for export-facing domestic information technology (IT) giants, have sent the index down over 30 per cent on a year-to-date basis. By comparison, the Nifty50 Index has shed 2.8 per cent during the period, reveals data by ACE Equity.
India's budget for the fiscal beginning April focuses on giving a boost to the ongoing economic recovery through a sharp increase in capex spending but is short on major growth-enhancing structural reform announcements, Fitch Ratings said Wednesday. The deficit targets present in the Union budget 2022-23 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday "are a bit higher than our forecasts when we affirmed India's 'BBB'/Negative sovereign rating in November," said Jeremy Zook, director and primary sovereign analyst for India, Fitch Ratings. While it was widely expected that the fiscal deficit will be lower than the targeted 6.8 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2022, Sitharaman put the number at 6.9 per cent.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher by more than half a per cent on Wednesday following buying in IT, financial and oil stocks after the RBI slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes. Ending its two-day slide, the 30-share BSE Sensex rebounded by 377.75 points or 0.63 per cent to close at 60,663.79 with 24 of its constituents posting gains. The broader Nifty of the NSE spurted by 150.20 points or 0.85 per cent to settle at 17,871.70, riding on a rally in Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports and HDFC Life.
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