Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
'We have not seen too many large deals compared to last quarter.'
Conflicting views on Coal India (CIL) might leave investors confused. The bullish perspective that India has strong power demand (and also high steel production) means high demand for coal. As CIL is the monopoly producer of coal -- supplying over 80 per cent of the domestic requirement - the public sector undertaking should be a beneficiary of the rising power demand.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Monday upped its banking sector outlook to 'positive' on healthy asset growth, improving asset quality and stronger capital buffers. The agency expects asset quality to improve to a decadal best of 4 per cent from a gross non-performing assets (NPAs) perspective by the end of FY24. The banking system's credit growth will slow down to 11-11.6 per cent in FY24, after a very healthy growth of 15.2-16.1 per cent expected in FY23, the rating agency said.
'Now that we are a pure-play India business, many investors are open to investing.'
Billionaire Gautam Adani's group is planning to build 10 GW of integrated solar manufacturing capacity by 2027, as it looks to capture energy transition business, sources close to the company said. Adani Group currently has a solar manufacturing capacity of 4 GW. Adani Solar has a confirmed order book of over 3,000 MW in exports that are to be serviced over the next 15 months, they said, adding Adani, recently, raised $394 million for solar manufacturing from Barclays PLC and Deutsche Banks AG through a trade finance facility.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
10 stocks which are most popular with brokerages right now and are expected to deliver maximum upside over the next 12 months.
Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) traded 2 per cent higher at Rs 2,310.10 on the BSE in intra-day trade in an otherwise volatile market after the company reported a 27.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in its consolidated net profit at Rs 17,394 crore for the September quarter (Q2FY24). While revenue growth of the company was flattish YoY at Rs 2.32 trillion, the profit rose on the back of operational improvement across most segments, especially higher profits in the O2C (oil-to-chemicals) and oil & gas businesses, as well as the retail business. "Strong operational and financial contribution from all business segments has helped Reliance deliver another quarter of robust growth," said Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of the company.
Despite rising interest rates, and high inflation, the banking sector is doing well, on the back of a recovering economy. The last couple of quarters indicate credit demand is picking up and Return on Assets (RoA) is more than acceptable at the moment. The PSU bank pack may be more interesting at the moment simply due to being valued at far lower multiples than the private banks.
While the fiscal year has just begun, any windfall surplus will be welcomed by the government as it bids to meet the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of GDP, amidst lack of clarity on exactly to what extent will recession in the West impact India's trade and tax collections.
Price Waterhouse Chartered Accountants (PwC India) has resigned as the auditor of Paytm Payments Services, the fintech major said in a regulatory filing on Monday. "...we wish to inform you that M/s. Price Waterhouse Chartered Accountants LLP ... statutory auditors of material subsidiary i.e. Paytm Payments Services Limited (PPSL) have resigned with effect from August 7, 2023," the company added. Paytm said that the statutory auditors had not raised any concerns or issues and that the company had noted PwC's resignation.
India's forex reserves dropped by $329 million to $578.45 billion for the week ended March 31, on decline in gold reserves, the RBI said on Friday. The forex kitty had risen handsomely in the previous two reporting weeks, and rose by $5.98 billion to $578.78 billion for the week ended March 24. For FY23, the overall kitty has dropped by $28.86 billion.
'We are expected to grow at above 28 per cent this year, higher than the industry.'
The past 18 months have seen a resurgence in the real estate industry, with developers regaining the ground lost to the Covid-19 pandemic. But it is once again adding inventory at a pace faster than sales. The industry's inventory rose by 28 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in H1FY24, com-pared to a 25.5 per cent year-on-year increase in net sales during the same period.
Maruti Suzuki is set to launch a new multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) -- Invicto -- next month. It will be the company's first passenger vehicle with an ex-showroom price tag of Rs 20 lakh or more, said Shashank Srivastava, executive director (sales), on Tuesday. The upcoming MPV will compete with the likes of Toyota Innova Hycross, Kia Carnival, Hyundai Alcazar, MG Hector Plus, Tata Safari, Mahindra & Mahindra XUV700, and Mahindra & Mahindra Scorpio-N - all having three rows of seats. Invicto will be based on the Hycross by Toyota, which will manufacture Maruti's most expensive car at its Bidadi plant in Karnataka.
The stock of Dixon Technologies (India), the country's largest listed electronic manufacturing services (EMS) player, was up 6 per cent in 10 trading sessions, boosting the gains over the last three months to 21 per cent. The gains came following reports that Dixon will produce laptops in India in partnership with US and Chinese firms under the production-linked investment (PLI) scheme. It recently signed an agreement to make smartphones for Xiaomi India.
Adani Group is expected to report a 20 per cent rise in its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) at Rs 61,200 crore for the year that ended in March 2023 (2022-23, or FY23), according to a note submitted by the group to lenders recently. The group had earned Ebitda of Rs 57,299 crore in the preceding financial year that ended in March 2022 (2021-22). The group's gross debt was Rs 2.27 trillion as of March 31, 2023, and has projected to not take on additional debt until it lowers its existing one.
The Reserve Bank is expected to go for another rate hike of 0.40 per cent at the scheduled review of the monetary policy next week, a foreign brokerage said on Friday. The central bank's rate setting panel will follow it up with a 0.35 per cent hike in rates at the next review in August, or make it into a 0.50 per cent hike next week and a 0.25 per cent increase in August, to make the total quantum of rate hikes at 0.75 per cent, the report by Bofa Securities said. On May 4, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked rates by 0.40 per cent, and Governor Shaktikanta Das has already called a rate hike at the forthcoming review as a "no brainer" given the pressure to maintain its core mandate of inflation in the targeted band of under 6 per cent.
As many as 31 mainboard IPOs raised a cumulative Rs 26,272 crore in this period, according to Prime Database. During the April-September 2007 bull run, 48 IPOs totalling Rs 21,243 crore were launched. The number of deals in H1FY24 was 2.2 times that of the same period of the last fiscal year, but the amount raised was 26 per cent lower.
With just a month left in this financial year, electric two-wheeler sales, so far, are at just 62 per cent of the ambitious target of 1 million units set for 2022-23 by the NITI Aayog. According to VAHAN data, compiled by the Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles (SMEV), 620,006 units of electric two-wheelers were sold across the country in FY23 until February 21. Though the industry may miss the 1-million target, sales in FY23 are already up 146 per cent from 249,621 units sold in FY22.
General insurance companies are likely to see a surge in demand for health insurance in the coming months due to falling air quality in the country. The health insurance segment has registered a strong growth after the pandemic due to higher awareness. In the first half of financial year 2023-24, the segment grew by 24.4 per cent to Rs 54,713.52 crore from Rs 43,981.54 crore in H1FY23, driving growth of the non-life insurance industry.
FMCG major Hindustan Unilever Ltd on Thursday reported an increase of 12.74 per cent in its consolidated net profit at Rs 2,601 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2023. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 2,307 crore in the January-March quarter of the previous fiscal. Its revenue from sales during the quarter under review stood at Rs 14,926 crore, up 10.83 per cent, as against Rs 13,468 crore in the corresponding period a year ago, Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) said in a regulatory filing.
It may plan a significant hike in budgetary support aimed at completing the balance 8.4 million dwellings by March 2024.
The Union government's revenue from securities transaction tax (STT) is on track to exceed its Budget projection for the current fiscal year, with the mop-up already surpassing 50 per cent of the annual estimate. Provisional figures reveal that the Centre has collected approximately Rs 14,000 crore in the first half of this fiscal year up to September, according to a government official. This amount exceeds half of the full-year target of Rs 27,625 crore set for FY24.
Benefitting from the economic rebound, banks are expected to report a healthy bottom-line and asset quality profile in the quarter ended March 2023 (Q4FY23). The net profit of listed commercial banks is projected to grow by an average 43.6 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q4FY23 amid better net interest margins (NIMs) and declining credit costs. This is based on a combined assessment of analyst estimates for 17 banks on Bloomberg database.
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
In the run-up to Apple CEO Tim Cook's visit to India, government officials are finalising the talk points with the Cupertino-headquartered tech major. Officials said that the government would like Apple to "deepen" the company's engagement in the manufacturing and assembly of iPhones in the country and not limit itself only to the minimum commitments made under the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for mobile devices. The conversations between the two sides are likely to focus on that.
Fintech companies believe that the impact of Reserve Bank of India's order last week on unsecured loans will be visible in six to 12 months and prompt them to diversify and strengthen their secured portfolio. Fintechs which source funds through banks or non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) are looking at quickly building their secured portfolio options to at least 40 per cent of their total portfolio. "Over the medium to long term, as part of our product strategy, we are evaluating secured products which can be enabled over a digital platform" said Yogi Sadana, the founder of Zype, a lending-focussed fintech.
From the Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra climbed 3.71 per cent after the company reported an 18 per cent jump in its consolidated profit for the March quarter and the highest-ever annual profit of Rs 10,282 crore in FY23. Titan, Tata Steel, HDFC, UltraTech Cement, State Bank of India, ITC, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finserv were the other major gainers. HCL Technologies, Power Grid, Maruti, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tech Mahindra and Hindustan Unilever were the laggards.
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
In a multi-year first, the country's largest software exporter TCS on Monday reported a marginal decline in its overall employees for the December 2022 quarter but announced that it will be hiring over 1.25 lakh staff in FY24. The software firm posted a decline of 2,197 people in its employee base for the October-December period to 6.13 lakh. The Tata group company, however, made it clear that this was due to the higher hiring done over the last 18 months, and not driven by the demand environment.
IT major Wipro on Thursday reported a marginal year-on-year decline of 0.4 per cent in net profit to Rs 3,074.5 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2023 and announced a share buyback of up to Rs 12,000 crore. The Wipro board approved the buyback of 26.96 crore equity shares at a price of Rs 445 apiece. "Board...of Wipro...has approved a proposal to buyback up to 26,96,62,921 equity shares, being 4.91 per cent of the total paid-up equity shares of the company, for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs 120,00,00,00,000 at a price of Rs 445...per equity share," the company said a regulatory filing.
The recovering valuations, will lead to enhanced optimism among investors about funding startups.
The biggest headwind to the consumption story in FY23 is a sharp decline in government subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel, and overall decline in revenue expenditure net of interest payments. This, analysts say, will adversely impact purchasing power of households at the lower end of the income pyramid, translating into lower spending on consumer goods and services.
The medium-term scenario for oil marketing companies (OMCs) is high risk due to the surging crude and gas prices. Apart from OPEC-plus cutting production, the Hamas-Israel conflict has caused fears of supply disruption. The July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24) saw positive surprises for OMCs. Strong gross refining margins (GRMs) more than offset weak marketing margins.
The stock of State Bank of India (SBI) may re-rate soon, believe analysts, if the lender manages to safeguard its net interest margin (NIM) going ahead. This, along with controlled credit costs, should aid the outlook of the stock which has been underperforming the markets for some time now. "We believe delivery of growth on guided lines, sustenance of NIMs near current levels, and controlled asset quality parameters aiding controlled credit costs should lead to strong profitability and drive re-rating of the stock," said analysts at JM Financial.
Notwithstanding sharp volatility in March, mutual fund (MF) investors didn't fight shy of investing in riskier small-cap-oriented schemes. Inflows into small-cap funds were not just the highest in absolute terms, they were also the maximum as a proportion of assets under management (AUM) among all market capitalisation (m-cap)-oriented categories. Investors funnelled Rs 2,430 crore down small-cap funds - 1.8 per cent of their AUM of Rs 1.33 trillion.
Over 85 per cent of SIP AUM, or Rs 5.8 trillion, is in equity schemes, compared to just Rs 6,100 crore in debt.
While prices sustaining lower levels is crucial, Govt actions are also a key monitorable given the forthcoming elections in 2024.
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