The market has zoomed to new highs for calendar 2017.
Investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes dropped to Rs 88,398 crore month-on-month in February amid higher valuation of domestic markets. This was the third consecutive monthly decline in the investment level. Before this, investment through the route had been on an increasing trend since July 2022 because of a slump in the oil and other commodities prices and the relative outperformance of Indian equity markets.
Companies, which missed out on listing earlier, are giving it another shot but with significantly-reduced issue sizes. In the recent past, companies such as TVS Supply Chain Solutions, Suraj Estate Developers, and ESAF Small Finance Bank have re-filed their draft red herring prospectuses (DRHPs) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). This came after they slashed their issue sizes by 20-60 per cent.
Liquidity pushed benchmark indices 22% higher to become the best performing equity market globally
Deteriorating ties between India and Canada could have a bearing on flows into the domestic capital markets. At present, Canada is the seventh largest country for foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India. According to the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL), the assets under custody (AUC) of FPIs domiciled in Canada stood at nearly Rs 1.8 trillion ($21 billion) at the end of August. Almost 85 per cent of these investments are in listed equity, while the remaining in debt and hybrid instruments.
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
As many as 31 mainboard IPOs raised a cumulative Rs 26,272 crore in this period, according to Prime Database. During the April-September 2007 bull run, 48 IPOs totalling Rs 21,243 crore were launched. The number of deals in H1FY24 was 2.2 times that of the same period of the last fiscal year, but the amount raised was 26 per cent lower.
Water projects firm Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, the 20th company to launch its IPO in the current year, saw its shares closing at a 47 per cent gain over its issue price on Tuesday. Such a huge one-day pop is considered rare; however, it has become the norm this year. The average listing-day gain for these 20 IPOs in 2023 is 34 per cent, and their average gain to date stands at 46 per cent.
Movement in the equity market this week will largely be dictated by quarterly earnings of blue-chip firms HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, along with the announcement of WPI inflation data and global trends, analysts said. Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement.
After declining for three consecutive quarters, the value of FPI investment in Indian equities rose 8 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $566 billion in the July-September period, according to a Morningstar report on Wednesday. A fast-changing global macroeconomic landscape, sentiments and opportunities that the Indian equity markets have to offer impacted the direction of flows by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs). Through the quarter, the value of the FPI holdings in domestic equities surged by 8 per cent to $566 billion from $523 billion recorded in the previous quarter.
The derivatives (futures and options) are not treated as capital asset and the income arising from the transfer of the derivatives is treated as business income and liable for normal rate of tax for domestic investors, an official statement said on Saturday, clarifying the stand of tax authorities on gains made from derivatives trading.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in a whopping $33.8 billion into domestic equities and debt till February 15 this fiscal year -- the highest since FY15 when it was nearly $46 billion --taking their net outstanding investments to a record $592.5 billion, as per a report. Of the total FPI assets of $592.5 billion, $537.4 billion were in equities and $51.38 billion in debt, according to the data collated by Care Ratings. The maximum holding is in financial services sector at $191.3 billion, followed by software ($76.1 billion), oil & gas ($50 billion), automobiles & auto components ($26.9 billion, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology ($22.8 billion), sovereign ($21.7 billion--debt), household & personal products ($20.2 billion), capital goods ($19.8 billion), food, beverages & tobacco ($15.7 billion) and insurance ($13.4 billion).
'More than investors, fund houses, and advisors have raised caution and limited flows on small-and mid-caps.'
Smaller stocks have emerged as Dalal Street's favourites in 2023 that has turned out to be a "great year" for equities, rewarding investors with big gains, driven by optimism over the country's macroeconomic fundamentals and heavy retail investors participation. Experts said equity markets are experiencing a prolonged bull run and it is during this time that the midcap and smallcap segments tend to outshine their larger counterparts. Till December 22 this year, the BSE smallcap gauge has jumped 13,074.96 points or 45.20 per cent while the midcap index has surged 10,568.18 points or 41.74 per cent.
Gains in IndusInd Bank, HCL Tech, TCS, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, ITC, JSW Steel and Tata Steel helped the barometer scale a fresh high. Axis Bank fell the most by 1.26 per cent, M&M by 0.99 per cent and Hindustan Unilever by 0.67 per cent. Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel and HDFC Bank and Infosys also declined.
Among the Sensex shares, Infosys rose the most by 1.37 per cent, followed by Larsen & Toubro (0.90 per cent), and Wipro (0.83 per cent). HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, ITC, TCS, Kotak Bank, Asian Paints and Titan were among the lead gainers.
Investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes slightly dropped to Rs 96,292 crore at the end of December 2022 from the preceding month on higher valuation of domestic markets. Before the decline, the investment through the route had been on an increasing trend since July because of a slump in prices of oil and other commodities and relative outperformance of Indian equity markets. Participatory notes (P-notes) are issued by registered Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) to overseas investors who wish to be part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly.
After pulling out $17 billion in calendar year 2022, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped $7.3 billion back into equity markets so far this year. The turnaround in foreign flows has helped domestic markets exceed the all-time highs chalked up in December 2022 and bounced back more than 10 per cent from this year's lows. However, a big nugget of FPI inflows seen this year could be off the back of two factors: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and block deals.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
Among the Sensex firms, UltraTech Cement, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Motors, Maruti, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, NTPC, Tata Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the major laggards.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is contemplating the implementation of a same-day settlement cycle, known as T+0, in two phases. This is seen as a preliminary step towards instantaneous settlement. The shorter T+0 settlement cycle is being considered for the equity cash segment as an optional mechanism, in addition to the current T+1 (Trade plus one day) cycle.
'Some risks to this market rally include inflation, erratic weather conditions, rising crude prices, slowing global growth and the resultant impact on domestic exports, escalation in geopolitical tensions.'
The biggest bounce is in the realty sector, where the industry index jumped 80%. There's been a turnaround also in automobiles and ancillaries (up 45%). The pharma and health care indices have a welcome return of roughly 35%.
The investors had pumped in a net sum of Rs 2,965.66 crore on February 11, the second-highest single-day inflow so far this month.
'India has always been a bottom-up stock-picking market, and as growth recovers with higher liquidity, mid and small-caps always tend to outperform.'
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
Despite markets turning volatile, share sale activity at India Inc has surged to its highest level in five months. So far in March, promoters, strategic investors and other large shareholders have been able to offload shares worth more than Rs 33,000 crore-the most since November-defying uncertain market conditions. Both the Sensex and the Nifty are on course to post their fourth straight monthly loss amid headwinds, such as interest rate tightening by the US Federal Reserve and the global banking crisis.
Notwithstanding concerns about lofty valuations, smallcaps recorded their most significant monthly gain in nearly three years in November. The National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 100 finished the month with a 12 per cent gain, the most since February 2021 when it rose by 12.2 per cent. After declining by 4.1 per cent in the preceding month, the Nifty Midcap 100 rose by 10.4 per cent, the most since July 2022.
Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) filing continued to be robust in October, signifying the optimism in the initial public offer (IPO) market despite the recent turbulence in equities. In October, 17 companies filed their offer documents for IPOs. The rush in filings has made August-October 2023 the best three-month period for DRHP filings since July-September 2021.
More than half a dozen companies will hit the market with their initial public offerings (IPOs) between now and the end of next week. The cumulative amount raised from these IPOs is expected to be around Rs 8,000 crore. Stationery products firm DOMS Industries and home financier India Shelter Finance's IPOs - of Rs 1,200 crore each - got off to a flying start on Wednesday (December 13), with the former garnering over six times the subscription and the latter getting 1.5 times subscribed.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to cut their shareholding in both Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) and HDFC Bank. As per latest data, during the June 2022-23 quarter (Q1FY23), FPIs held 68.1 per cent and 65.96 per cent, respectively, in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Overseas shareholding is down 111/406 basis points (bps) and 260/412 bps on the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)/year-to-date (YTD) basis in HDFC and HDFC Bank, respectively.
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
Continuing buying interest across the pack helped the Bank Nifty index improve its new high on Tuesday (May 30). The index of banking stocks ended Tuesday's session at 44,436, a gain of 124 points or 0.3 per cent. On Monday (May 29), Bank Nifty hit a new high after a gap of 166 days.
Industrial production and inflation data, quarterly earnings from IT majors and global trends would drive the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti'.
Eleven companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2023, making this month the second-best December for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they are raising Rs 8,182.7 crore this month. In December 2021, 11 companies raised Rs 9,534 crore. However, excluding December 2021, this month marks the best December for IPOs since 1996.
Friday will be a landmark day for domestic markets, with all the listed stocks entering the professed T+1 (trading plus one day) settlement cycle. About 200 stocks, which account for more than 80 per cent of India's market capitalisation, will be settled on a next-day basis, with effect from January 27. This will evidently complete the transition to the T+1 cycle that started in February 2022 with the bottom 500 stocks in terms of market value.
Overseas investors, as well as other key stakeholders, such as brokers, custodians, and clearing corporations, are yet to iron out critical issues, even as the shift towards a shorter trade settlement cycle approaches new phases. Several industry players said foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are still facing impediments over the trade confirmation timelines, foreign exchange (forex) bookings, and pre-funding requirements. This could potentially act as a roadblock when it comes to moving entirely to the new T+1 settlement cycle from next year.
The sharp rally in the broader markets has propelled India's market capitalisation (m-cap) to a new high. The combined m-cap of all BSE-listed firms rose to Rs 291.9 trillion in intraday trade on Thursday before settling lower at Rs 290.9 trillion. The previous record was on December 14, 2022, at Rs 291.3 trillion.
Following the sharp run in markets, valuations across the board have become elevated. The National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index now trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.3 times, 18 per cent higher than this year's low of 20.5 times. The valuation expansion in the broader markets has been sharper.
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