Earnings growth, attractive valuations and change in FPI flows from negative to positive over the next 12 months are some of the key triggers for an upside. "A poor monsoon, high inflation and further rate hike are some of the key risks
The FPI holding in India's top 100 companies, which are part of the Nifty 100 index, declined to 24.23 per cent on average at the end of March this year, from a high of 27.5 per cent at the end of March 2021. This is the lowest FPI holdings in India's top listed companies in at least three years. A general sell-off by FPIs has weighed on stock prices and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex is down 8.5 per cent, from its 52-week high made in October 2021. Most analysts expect FPI flows to remain weak in FY23 as well, given rising bond yields in the US and an expected earnings slowdown in India due to high inflation and commodity prices.
The filing of offer documents with the capital markets regulator - Securities and Exchange Board of India - has more than halved this financial year (2022-23, or FY23) as the outlook for new share sales has worsened, following correction in the secondary market. So far in FY23, 66 companies filed their draft red herring prospectus (DRHP), as opposed to 144 in the preceding financial year (2021-22, or FY22).
JP Morgan's decision last week to include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite from June 2024 may be a sort of blessing for India, as the move is estimated to result in an inflow of $25 billion of foreign portfolio investments into the country. The development comes at a time when the spread between the benchmark 10-year government of India bond and the 10-year US government bond has declined to its lowest level in more than 17 years. Low yield spreads make Indian bonds less attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to cut their shareholding in both Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) and HDFC Bank. As per latest data, during the June 2022-23 quarter (Q1FY23), FPIs held 68.1 per cent and 65.96 per cent, respectively, in HDFC and HDFC Bank. Overseas shareholding is down 111/406 basis points (bps) and 260/412 bps on the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)/year-to-date (YTD) basis in HDFC and HDFC Bank, respectively.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
'In case the El Nino pattern plays out negatively and/or the political situation becomes messy, we may see markets correcting and waiting for the situation to become clear by early/mid-2024.'
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra jumped 5.58 per cent, followed by Nestle, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Consultancy Services, Asian Paints, Wipro and Bajaj Finserv. Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the major laggards.
Global funds have pumped in over Rs 38,000 crore (about $5.5 billion) into domestic equities since February 20, helping the Sensex rebound 2,671 points, or 7.6 per cent, from its 2019 low.
The sharp rally in the midcap stocks has made valuations expensive, and there is room for a correction, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest note to investors, GREED & fear. The midcap index, Wood said, now trades at 24.1x 12-month forward earnings compared with 18.7x for the Nifty. Rising crude oil prices, he believes, are another worry for India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its annual crude oil requirement.
Waves of foreign portfolio investments worth over Rs 51,000 crore splashed into the Indian market in 2021 as overseas investors turned net buyers of domestic securities for the third straight year while excess global liquidity and other factors steered the ebb and flow of their investing ways. With the global financial system still flush with liquidity, emerging market assets, especially equities, might well remain the preferred investment avenue for many more months to come, experts opined. As the equities sizzled during most of 2021, that also saw economy slowly coming back into the recovery path, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turned net buyers but their investment is much less compared to net inflows of Rs 1.03 lakh crore in 2020.
India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on Tuesday. However, for the 2022-23 fiscal, the current account balance recorded a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP compared to 1.2 per cent in 2021-22. "India's current account deficit (CAD) decreased to $1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago [Q4:2021-22]," as per the RBI's 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23'.
Continuing their selling spree for the sixth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 41,000 crore from the Indian equity market in March on anticipation of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and deteriorating geopolitical environment amid the Russia-Ukraine war. Further, flows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are expected to remain volatile in the near term given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices and inflation, experts said. According to data available with the depositories, FPIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 41,123 crore in the equity market last month.
Investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes slightly dropped to Rs 96,292 crore at the end of December 2022 from the preceding month on higher valuation of domestic markets. Before the decline, the investment through the route had been on an increasing trend since July because of a slump in prices of oil and other commodities and relative outperformance of Indian equity markets. Participatory notes (P-notes) are issued by registered Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) to overseas investors who wish to be part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly.
IPO market hopes to come out of slump in festive season, reports Sundar Sethuraman.
The value of the foreign portfolio investors' (FPI) holdings in the domestic equities reached $667 billion in three months ended September 2021, a surge of 13 per cent from the preceding quarter, according to a Morningstar report. This was largely on the back of strong performance by the Indian equity markets along with net inflows from FPIs at the later part of the quarter. "At the end of the quarter ended September 2021, the value of FPI investments in Indian equities shot up sharply to $667 billion, which was considerably higher than the $592 billion recorded in the previous quarter, a spike of around 13 per cent," the report noted.
A global association for regulated funds that is leading efforts to shorten the settlement cycle for US equities has reached out to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) with a plea to extend the T+1 implementation timeline by 18 months. The short transition period of four months does not provide foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), their services providers, and broker dealers sufficient time to make the necessary operational and compliance changes to accommodate a shorter settlement cycle, ICI Global said in its letter addressed to Sebi chairman Ajay Tyagi written a few days back. ICI Global carries out the international work of the Investment Company Institute (ICI), a global association for regulated funds, whose members manage assets of more than $42 trillion.
The automobile sector has started seeing volume growth, the crucial economy segment included. Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) could be a big beneficiary as the country's largest passenger vehicle (PV) maker has seen several favourable developments including volume recovery. Demand for its new sports utility vehicles (SUVs) appears to be good, and the company has 4 lakh outstanding orders by April 2023, (up from 3.6 lakhs in January 2023). Siam (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers) estimates that passenger vehicle demand would grow by 5-7 per cent in the 2023-24 financial year (FY24) and MSIL is likely to beat the market growth.
Investments in Indian capital market through participatory notes (P-notes) dropped to Rs 94,826 crore till November-end after hitting 43-month high in the preceding month. P-notes are issued by registered foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to overseas investors who wish to be a part of the Indian stock market without registering themselves directly. They, however, need to go through a due diligence process.
After the massive sell-off since October, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are no longer the biggest non-promoter-shareholders in top Indian companies. This has happened for the first time in over a decade. "At 25.6 per cent ownership of India's largest 75 companies, domestic investors are now larger holders than FPIs for the first time since 2010," said Morgan Stanley strategists Ridham Desai, Sheela Rathi and Nayant Parekh in a note.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out as much as Rs 17,537 crore from the Indian markets in just three trading sessions of March as investors' sentiment got dented by the uncertainty triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising crude oil prices. As per depositories data, they pulled out Rs 14,721 crore from equities, Rs 2,808 crore from debt segment and Rs 9 crore from hybrid instruments between March 2-4. This took the total net outflow to Rs 17,537 crore.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have pumped in a net sum of Rs 49,553 crore in Indian markets this month so far on back of high liquidity coupled with improving global indicators and clarity after the US presidential elections. FPIs invested Rs 44,378 crore in equities and Rs 5,175 crore in the debt segment, taking the total net investment to Rs 49,553 crore between November 3-20. In October, FPIs invested a net sum of Rs 22,033 crore.
'A soft landing of the Indian economy would be a long-term positive for the equity markets.'
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in a whopping $33.8 billion into domestic equities and debt till February 15 this fiscal year -- the highest since FY15 when it was nearly $46 billion --taking their net outstanding investments to a record $592.5 billion, as per a report. Of the total FPI assets of $592.5 billion, $537.4 billion were in equities and $51.38 billion in debt, according to the data collated by Care Ratings. The maximum holding is in financial services sector at $191.3 billion, followed by software ($76.1 billion), oil & gas ($50 billion), automobiles & auto components ($26.9 billion, pharmaceuticals & biotechnology ($22.8 billion), sovereign ($21.7 billion--debt), household & personal products ($20.2 billion), capital goods ($19.8 billion), food, beverages & tobacco ($15.7 billion) and insurance ($13.4 billion).
'The idea is to invest where there is opportunity.'
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net buyers to the tune of Rs 12,266 crore in the Indian market in the first five trading sessions of February, as positive sentiment post-Union Budget 2021 sparked a rally in investment.
The benchmark Nifty50 managed to reclaim its 200-day moving average (DMA) on Wednesday but about half of top 500 stocks continue to languish below this key technical indicator. The 200-DMA - nearly a year's average of closing prices - is analysed by traders to understand the market sentiment. A fall below these levels indicates a weak trend.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) investigation into the Hindenburg allegations is making slow progress when it comes to obtaining information from overseas regulators, particularly around ultimate beneficial ownerships of certain foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), said people in the know. "Establishing ultimate beneficial ownerships for FPIs is a very complex exercise. "Several jurisdictions allow omnibus structures where the end beneficiaries are not required to be captured or are based in some other geographies.
Thus far in FY21, BSE, NSE have rallied 70 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday sought to know from industry what is holding it back from investing in manufacturing, even though foreign investors show confidence in India. Drawing parallel between India Inc and mythological character 'Hanuman', Sitharaman said the government is willing to engage with the industry and take policy action. "This is the time for India... We cannot miss the bus," she added.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled out Rs 4,515 crore from the equities segment in the first half of July as they turn cautious towards the Indian market. "With markets trading near all-time high, FPIs would have chosen to book profits. "They have also been staying on the sidelines given high valuations and most likely on the back of the risk of a potential third wave of the coronavirus pandemic," said Morningstar India associate director (manager research) Himanshu Srivastava. Though the continuing firmness in the dollar and the possibility of rising bond yields in the US do not augur well for capital flows into emerging markets like India, there is no immediate worry at the moment, he said.
'Sebi has to make sure that investor interests are protected and at the same time, there isn't over-regulation so that companies don't get discouraged to list here.'
From the peak of $3.67 trillion in January, India's market cap has eroded by $676 billion amid rising bond yields and a record-breaking sell-off by overseas investors.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
Despite markets turning volatile, share sale activity at India Inc has surged to its highest level in five months. So far in March, promoters, strategic investors and other large shareholders have been able to offload shares worth more than Rs 33,000 crore-the most since November-defying uncertain market conditions. Both the Sensex and the Nifty are on course to post their fourth straight monthly loss amid headwinds, such as interest rate tightening by the US Federal Reserve and the global banking crisis.
The value of the foreign portfolio investors (FPI) holdings in the domestic equities reached $592 billion in three months ended June 2021, a surge of 7 per cent from the preceding quarter, according to a Morningstar report. This was largely on the back of robust net inflows from FPIs, coupled with the strong performance of the Indian equity markets. "As of the quarter ended June 2021, the value of FPI investments in Indian equities stood at $592 billion, which was considerably higher than the $552 billion recorded in the previous quarter, a spike of around 7 per cent," the report noted. As of June 2020, the value of FPI investments in Indian equities had been $344 billion.
Friday will be a landmark day for domestic markets, with all the listed stocks entering the professed T+1 (trading plus one day) settlement cycle. About 200 stocks, which account for more than 80 per cent of India's market capitalisation, will be settled on a next-day basis, with effect from January 27. This will evidently complete the transition to the T+1 cycle that started in February 2022 with the bottom 500 stocks in terms of market value.
In the past four months, $7.5 billion has flowed back into domestic stocks, helping the benchmark indices bounce back more than 40 per cent from their 2020 lows.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
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