The benchmark Nifty and Sensex could see another 8-10 per cent from the current levels, said HDFC Securities in its outlook for equity markets in 2024. The brokerage said that the market movement in the next year will not be linear, and there will be more volatility. When asked about the market reaction to the General Elections in 2024, Dhiraj Relli, managing director and CEO of HDFC Securities, said more than the outcome of the elections, the market movement in the next three to four months will decide the market trajectory post elections.
India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was $8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
The ownership by domestic investors, individual as well as institutional, in companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) has breached the 25 per cent mark for the first time. The share stood at 25.72 per cent at the end of the March 2023 quarter, up from 24.44 per cent in the previous quarter, according to data from Prime Database. The share of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), meanwhile, rose slightly to 20.56 per cent from 20.24 per cent as on December 31, 2022.
Only a fifth of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in breach of the market regulator-specified thresholds may need to provide enhanced disclosure on ultimate beneficiaries, thanks to exemptions being provided, according to people in the know. The ultimate beneficial ownership (UBO) disclosures, for FPIs with over 50 per cent holding in a single corporate group or over Rs 25,000 crore exposure to Indian assets, will be required from February 1. But, depending on their category, FPIs will have 10-30 working days to submit these granular details.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to seek from the finance ministry a six-month extension of the date for complying with the amendments to the Prevention of Money-Laundering Act (PMLA), citing implementation challenges. Sources said FPIs, through their custodians, were planning to approach the ministry, highlighting key concerns and seeking more clarification. The ministry, through a notification on March 7, lowered the threshold for reporting ultimate beneficial ownership (UBO) for non-profit organisations and politically exposed persons to 10 per cent from 25 per cent.
A potential risk to the rupee's appreciation trajectory lies in the event of a delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, particularly if core inflation in the US remains elevated.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 11,630 crore in the Indian equity markets in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks and appreciation in the rupee. This came after FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March, mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. However, if one adjusts for the investments of GQG in Adani Group, the net flow was negative.
Domestic equity markets, which are at record high levels, will be driven by quarterly earnings, global trends and foreign fund movement, analysts said. The movement of rupee and global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked by investors. "The direction of global stock markets, fluctuations in the rupee-to-dollar exchange rate, and movement in crude oil prices will all play a crucial role in influencing the overall market trend.
Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) filing continued to be robust in October, signifying the optimism in the initial public offer (IPO) market despite the recent turbulence in equities. In October, 17 companies filed their offer documents for IPOs. The rush in filings has made August-October 2023 the best three-month period for DRHP filings since July-September 2021.
Overseas investors have pulled out a net Rs 1,14,855.97 crore from the Indian markets in the current year so far, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Foreign portfolio investors have sold domestic equities worth Rs 48,261.65 crore so far this month, taking the year-to-date tally this year to a massive Rs 114,855.97 crore, according to depositories data. The exodus of foreign investors was largely owing to inflationary pressures and deepening global macroeconomic conditions following the Russia-Ukraine war, experts said.
Investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes dropped to Rs 88,398 crore month-on-month in February amid higher valuation of domestic markets. This was the third consecutive monthly decline in the investment level. Before this, investment through the route had been on an increasing trend since July 2022 because of a slump in the oil and other commodities prices and the relative outperformance of Indian equity markets.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
After falling 10 per cent against the greenback in 2022, the rupee staged a comeback in 2023 as it appreciated, albeit marginally, on the back of strong portfolio inflows, in addition to timely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian unit appreciated by 0.16 percent in six months until June 28. The rupee stood in third place in terms of appreciation against the US dollar among the 12 Asian currencies and in 12th place of the 23 emerging-market currencies.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pulled out over Rs 10,000 crore from Indian equities in the first three weeks of September, primarily due to rising US interest rates, recessionary fears, and overvalued domestic stocks. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period. Mayank Mehra, smallcase, manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha,believes that strong economic growth prospects, attractive valuations, and government reforms could support foreign investment flows in the next month.
The exports in 2022-2023 was $79 billion, compared to imports of $50 billion.
'Higher valuation remains the only spoiler for equities.'
Billionaire Gautam Adani's group on Monday said it has written confirmation that accounts of three foreign funds that are among its top shareholders are not frozen and reports to the contrary are "blatantly erroneous and misleading". Shares of Adani group companies plunged on Monday after reports that the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) froze the accounts of the three foreign funds that are among the top stakeholders in the firms. Adani Enterprises, the conglomerate's flagship company, as also Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Green Energy Ltd, Adani Transmission Ltd, Adani Power and Adani Total Gas Ltd in identical filings to the stock exchanges said the reports of NSDL freezing accounts of Albula Investment Fund, Cresta Fund and APMS Investment Fund holding shares in the group firms were "blatantly erroneous and is done to deliberately mislead the investing community."
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
The Indian equity market has been dancing to the tune of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) for more than two decades now. Typically, when FPIs are net-buyers on Dalal Street (D-Street) and raise their ownership of Indian equities, the broader market rallies. Conversely, when FPIs turn net-sellers, the stock prices decline. FPIs have been net-sellers on D-Street for five quarters on the trot and the result has been predictable.
Eleven companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2023, making this month the second-best December for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they are raising Rs 8,182.7 crore this month. In December 2021, 11 companies raised Rs 9,534 crore. However, excluding December 2021, this month marks the best December for IPOs since 1996.
Stock markets are likely to remain range-bound in this holiday-shortened week amid a lack of any major domestic triggers, analysts said. Stock indices may also face volatility during the week amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. Equity markets would remain closed on Monday for Christmas.
BSE (formerly Bombay Stock Exchange) has seen its market share go past the critical 20 per cent mark in the derivatives segment, intensifying its battle with bigger rival - the National Stock Exchange (NSE) - which, less than a year ago, had a monopoly in this space. In April, the average daily trading volume (ADTV) for BSE stood at Rs 89 trillion, accounting for 20.6 per cent of the overall ADTV of Rs 432 trillion (based on notional volumes for options).
Foreign investors made a significant turnaround and injected over Rs 1,500 crore into Indian equities in February, reversing the massive outflows seen in the preceding month, primarily due to robust corporate earnings and positive economic growth. Additionally, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to be bullish on the debt markets as they put in over Rs 22,419 crore during the month under review, data with the depositories showed. Looking ahead to March, the outlook for FPI flow appears promising, provided the current economic trajectory and corporate performance sustain their positive momentum, potentially continuing to attract foreign investment into Indian equities, Mayank Mehraa, smallcase manager and principal partner at Craving Alpha, said.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) may allow non-resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs) greater exposure to domestic equities if their investments are sent through foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) registered at the GIFT City International Financial Services Centre (IFSC). The proposal will be taken during Sebi's board meeting on Saturday along with other key agenda items such as easing of voluntary delisting mechanism and introduction of a regulatory framework for real estate fractional ownership platforms, said people in the know. At present, the combined holdings of NRIs and OCIs in a global fund have to be less than 50 per cent, while that of a single NRI or OCI is capped at 25 per cent.
Market players attribute the rally in small and midcaps to flows from retail investors and domestic institutions.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
In a dazzling resurgence, foreign investors have graced the Indian equity markets with an influx of nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2023, fuelled by optimism over the country's resilient economic fundamentals amid shadows of a gloomy global scenario. Experts believe that the positive trend may continue in 2024. This follows Indian equities witnessing the worst-ever net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore by FPIs in 2022 on aggressive rate hikes by the central banks globally after net inflows for three consecutive years.
Amid intense scrutiny from short-sellers and regulators, Adani group stocks have seen a significant shift in their shareholder base: Relatively opaque foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have given way to more recognisable investors and broad-based funds. The list of large public shareholders - those directly holding at least 1 per cent - is now dominated by entities, such as the state-owned Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), US-based GQG Partners, Abu Dhabi-based International Holding Company, and Qatar Investment Authority's INQ Holding.
Market regulator Sebi does not expect a large number of foreign portfolio investors to be impacted by the new beneficial ownership disclosure norms, according to sources. The norms are set to come into effect from February 1 and against this backdrop, the equity market has witnessed significant volatility, with the benchmark Sensex crashing over 1,000 points on Tuesday after shedding early intraday gains. The sources in the know said FPIs which may be required to provide enhanced disclosures are expected to be significantly less than estimated in the consultation paper and the Sebi board note of October 2023.
In a significant win for the Adani group, the Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to transfer the probe into allegations of stock price manipulation by the Indian corporate giant to a special investigation team or the CBI, saying market regulator SEBI was conducting a "comprehensive investigation" and its conduct "inspires confidence".
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends and macroeconomic data announcements in a holiday-shortened week which may see volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, say analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Gurunanak Jayanti. Trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be tracked by investors.
After pumping in close to $20 billion in the preceding five months, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have yanked out $220 million from domestic stocks this month. The selling by overseas funds has led to turbulence in the domestic markets, with benchmark indices swinging wildly recently.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
Industrial production and inflation data, quarterly earnings from IT majors and global trends would drive the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti'.
FPIs have turned net sellers in 2022 after being net buyers in the last three years.
After two months of buying, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in October by pulling out Rs 12,278 crore from Indian markets. As per depositories data, FPIs took out Rs 13,550 crore from equities but invested Rs 1,272 crore in the debt segment during October 1-29. The total net outflow stood at Rs 12,278 crore during the period under review.
2023 could be another volatile year for Indian equity markets, according to BofA. In a report, the brokerage pointed out that the Nifty50, at present, is trading at 20.7x against its long-term average of 18.8x one-year forward earnings of current Nifty constituents. Plus, India is trading at a 98 per cent premium to its emerging market (EM) peers against its long-term average of 45 per cent.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled out Rs 17,696 crore from the Indian markets in December so far amid uncertainty due to a new coronavirus strain, Omicron, and expectations of faster tapering by the US Federal Reserve. According to the depositories data, FPIs took out Rs 13,470 crore from equities, Rs 4,066 crore from the debt segment and Rs 160 crore from hybrid instruments between December 1-17. In November, FPIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 2,521 crore in Indian markets.
'The deal pipeline across products is robust for 2024.'
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
