The country's most valuable lender HDFC Bank can perhaps no longer claim to be a favourite of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Two data indicators, both somewhat interconnected, point to this - the diminishing premium of HDFC Bank's American depositary receipts (ADRs) compared to local shares, and the ample investment opportunities available to FPIs in the domestic market. The ADR premium has shrunk to below 5 per cent, down from over 30 per cent in March 2021, and even lower than recent levels.
The markets have given a thumbs down to Jubilant FoodWorks results for the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24). The company, which owns and operates Domino's Pizza and Popeyes chain of stores, reported a (standalone) net profit of Rs 75.2 crore in Q1 of FY24 - a drop of 25.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 101 crore, but a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) rise from Rs 47.5 crore. What's worrying the Street is the likelihood of a dismal Q2FY24 performance, which it feels will be marred by soaring milk, cheese and vegetable prices.
Dwaipayan Bose highlights the similarities and contrasts between ETFs and Index Funds.
ITC's move to demerge the hotel business into a new entity, ITC Hotels Ltd, is a step in the right direction and will allay investor's concerns on the company's capital allocation strategy in the medium-to-long term, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a note. According to the company, the board of directors has approved in principle the demerger of the hotels business, wherein ITC will hold a 40 per cent stake in the new entity, and the remaining 60 per cent will be held directly by shareholders. The scheme of arrangement shall be placed for approval of the Board at its next meeting to be convened on 14th August 2023.
The launch of internet-enabled Jio Bharat phones at an "attractive pricing" will enable Jio to gain market share at the lower end segment and signals a reduced probability of tariff hike in the near term, brokerages tracking the sector said. Jio on Monday launched internet-enabled Jio Bharat phones at Rs 999, packing in a cheaper monthly plan of Rs 123 for unlimited voice calls and 14 GB data. The new offering aims to accelerate the '2G Mukt Bharat' vision, as India still has 250 million mobile subscribers trapped in the 2G era with feature phones.
Brokerages are expanding the universe of stocks they cover amid a boom in the market. Several stocks in the mid-cap universe are now tracked by more analysts than they were a year ago. For instance, SBI Cards and Payment Services is now tracked by 17 brokerages, compared to just four a year ago.
India's first-ever listed new-age company, Zomato, has seen a meteoric rise in its stock price in calendar year 2023 (CY23), rising 70.75 per cent during this period as compared to 9.5 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. From being the second worst hit new-age stock in CY22, crashing 57 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the stock hit the Rs 100-mark for the first time since January 2022 in late August. The stellar run in the stock - only after PB Fintech and One97 Communications-owned Paytm, analysts say, may be coming to an end, at least for now.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
The brokerage believes the economic growth cycle is not fully priced in. It has revised upwards the earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Sensex.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is working on a new payment system for the secondary market, which could prevent brokers from accessing their client funds. It will be on the lines of the Application Supported by Blocked Amount (ASBA) process used for subscribing to initial public offerings (IPOs), where funds move out of an investor's bank account only after the trade is confirmed. Sebi chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch on Wednesday said that despite the challenges, the new system would be ready in a few months.
MMFS is looking at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 per cent in assets under management (AUM) during FY23 to FY26 on the back of the strong recovery. The company has initiated risk-mitigating initiatives, including diversification into non-vehicle loans, building digital capacity and re-classification of customer profiles into affluent and mass-affluent in semi-urban segments to better target marketing.
After new-age tech companies reported better-than-expected June quarter (Q1FY23) results, analysts said it will be a long road to recovery for their respective businesses and the stock prices. Moreover, brokerages differ on whether it is the right time to own these stocks. The common thread, however, that runs across most brokerages is Zomato, where they suggest buying the stock with the one-year target price ranging between Rs 60 - 115, translating into an upside of around 9 - 109 per cent from the current levels. The company's gross order value (GOV) of food delivery jumped 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 42 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q1, aided largely by growth in volume, and mild growth in average order value (AOV) at 1-2 per cent. The company also broke even on an adjusted Ebitda basis during the quarter.
The June quarter numbers of the country's largest listed healthcare services provider, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (Apollo), were in line with Street estimates on the operational front. Net profit estimates, however, missed expectations due to higher interest and tax outgo. The revenue performance of the core hospital segment was robust, registering a 13 per cent increase over the year-ago quarter.
Domestic-focused agricultural chemical (agrochem) companies could face near-term headwinds, given the worries on the El Nio effect on monsoons, higher inventory, and pressure on margins. Some of these were reflected in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) results of companies and may impact them in the current quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) as well. Nuvama Research pointed out that the sector witnessed mixed performance during the quarter as global agrochem and domestic fertiliser companies maintained growth momentum, while adverse agronomical conditions and excess channel inventory weighed on domestic market volume offtake.
In the June quarter of FY24, 51 per cent of consumers who took small-ticket personal loans already had more than four credit products at the time of accessing yet another new loan, compared with just 17 per cent in the June quarter of FY20, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum may post a combined loss of Rs 10,700 crore in June quarter on selling petrol and diesel at rates below cost, a report said on Monday. While the raw material (crude oil) prices soared in April-June, petrol and diesel prices were not revised, leading to marketing losses which offset strong refining margins, ICICI Securities said in the report. The three state-owned oil marketing companies -- IOC, BPCL and HPCL -- control 90 per cent of the retail petrol and diesel sales in the country.
Leading bourse BSE has also declared Karvy Stock Broking as a defaulter and expelled the brokerage house from its membership after a similar action was taken by the NSE. Investors having any outstanding claims against the brokerage can file their claims with the exchange within 90 days from the date of issue of the notice -- by February 22, 2021 -- the BSE said in a circular on Tuesday.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
The sharp rally in the broader markets has propelled India's market capitalisation (m-cap) to a new high. The combined m-cap of all BSE-listed firms rose to Rs 291.9 trillion in intraday trade on Thursday before settling lower at Rs 290.9 trillion. The previous record was on December 14, 2022, at Rs 291.3 trillion.
Real estate developers are sitting on around 7.85 lakh unsold housing units across eight major cities and it will take them 32 months to clear these stocks at current sales velocity, according to PropTiger. However, in Delhi-NCR residential market -- which has been adversely impacted due to defaults of many big builders like Amrapali, Jaypee Infratech and Unitech -- it will take 62 months to sell over 1 lakh unsold housing units. Housing brokerage firm PropTiger.com data showed that unsold housing inventory has increased to 7,85,260 units as on September 30, 2022 from 763,650 unsold units at the end of previous quarter.
Analysts seem to be generally pessimistic about Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL). Out of 15 brokerages with recommendations since May this year, two have 'buy' while five have 'sell' and eight have 'underweight'/'reduce'/'underperform'/'hold' recommendations. The average target price of the public sector undertaking (PSU) is Rs 61. However, the stock has been consistently hitting new highs, which indicates that there is some kind of valuation mismatch.
The ongoing consolidation in equities would improve return prospects during the second half of 2021, an American brokerage said on Tuesday. Leading indicators relating to fundamentals including growth, stability, government policy and RBI policy, and corporate earnings are "generally positive" about equity returns, analysts at Morgan Stanley said. It can be noted that since the start of the second wave of COVID-19 infections, which also coincided with inflation worries in the US, there has been an uneasiness within investors. From its levels on March 10, the markets are down by nearly 3 per cent despite the late surge over the last two trading sessions.
The decline of over 5 per cent in PB Fintech's shares (the parent company of PolicyBazaar) in the past two days presents an opportunity for long-term investors to consider buying the stock, suggest analysts. By comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has remained flat during the same period with a negligible gain of 40 points, or 0.06 per cent. Analysts believe that the recent selling is "overdone", as the company behind the online insurance portal remains committed to achieving profitability, and the potential threat from the government's online insurance portal, Bima Sugam, might be embellished.
There are multiple near-term worries for the stock of India's largest listed consumer company, Hindustan Unilever (HUL). While inflationary pressures will weigh on its profitability, demand pressures - especially in the rural market - are expected to hit the firm's revenues. This is why brokerages have cut the earnings estimates for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) by 7-10 per cent.
Stocks of gold jewellery retailers have been able to retain their sheen in 2023 despite volatile gold prices. Kalyan Jewellers, Titan, PC Jewellers, Thangamayil Jewellery, and Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri (TBZ) have rallied 21-72 per cent so far since April as compared to a 13 per cent gain in the benchmark Sensex index. The rally gained steam on the back of gold's 6 per cen
Life insurance companies reported a 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) drop in new business premium (NBP) in February as state-owned Life Insurance Corporation of India's premiums contracted 32 per cent during this period on account of a drop in its group single premium segment. According to data released by the Life Insurance Council, the industry earned an NBP of Rs 22,847.65 crore in February - a drop of 17 per cent from the same period a year ago.
India's widening current account deficit (CAD), driven by the massive spike in commodity prices led by crude oil, is set to put pressure on the fragile recovery, warns a brokerage report that has revised upwards its CAD forecast to $45 billion or 1.4 per cent of GDP by March. According to a report by British brokerage Barclays, the worries arise from the fact that the trade deficit has been jumping continuously since July. From an average monthly trade deficit of $12 billion till June, it has jumped to $16.8 billion in July-October, with September showing the highest-ever trade deficit on record at $22.6 billion, the report said.
'IT companies do not have a large presence there either in terms of market and team. So, the impact of the war will be minimal. But West Asia is an emerging economy.'
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
Notwithstanding the risk involved, analysts are upbeat on micro-cap investing as India remains in a firm bull market. Moreover, these stocks are available at relatively cheaper valuations compared to large, mid and small caps, assuring alpha returns. With a market-capitalisation (market-cap) of up to Rs 10,000 crore, micro-cap stocks are outside the purview of Nifty 500 stocks, and are ranked from 501 to 750 in the market-cap ladder.
Notwithstanding the fact that the country's pharmaceutical (pharma) pricing regulator has allowed a 12 per cent price increase for medicines listed under the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) in 2023, analysts and industry insiders predict that the overall domestic pharma industry will only witness a price hike of 5-6 per cent. This is attributed to higher competitive intensity in the market. Krishnakumar V, executive director and chief operating officer (CEO) of Eris Lifesciences, a domestic-focused pharma company, noted that the NLEM segment experienced growth suppression of around 150 basis points due to price reductions during the January to July period this year.
It is important to have the necessary documents on hand to verify the information in the form.
Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest brokerage to question the valuations of Indian equities and downgraded them from 'overweight' (OW) to 'equalweight' (EW) and recommended taking some money off the table. "We move tactically EW on India equities after strong relative gains - we expect a structural multi-year earnings recovery, but at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) we look for some consolidation ahead of US Fed tapering, an RBI hike in February and higher energy costs," Morgan Stanley equity strategists, led by Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner, said in a note on Asia Pacific markets. The brokerage has upgraded Indonesia to OW, while maintaining an EW stance on China and UW on Taiwan.
After a turnaround in performance by Indian equity markets since July that has seen the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 wipe out the year-to-date losses, analysts suggest investors start nibbling into stocks that are focused on the domestic economy. While they say intermittent corrections, led by policies of global central banks and other economic data, cannot be ruled out, analysts expect India's relative outperformance among global equity markets to continue as it looks better placed with a healthy economic recovery, and remains one of the fastest growing major economies. In this backdrop, Neeraj Chadawar, head of quantitative equity strategy at Axis Securities, believes that amid global slowdown, aggressive tightening by the central banks, and preference for domestic interests first (by the local government), export-oriented themes are likely to be muted or will deliver conservative returns in the near-term.
The correction seen in the stock markets thus far is insufficient and there are significant downside risks, given the way macroeconomic data is shaping up, a Nomura equity strategist said on Thursday. "The markets are trying to look through the current stress we see in the macros. There are potential risks to the market. "Our estimates assume no major impact on growth and earnings. "The market should have been at least 5 per cent lower than it is now.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is considering a proposal to allow mutual funds (MFs) to charge a fee based on their performance, said Ananta Barua, whole-time member of the markets regulator. He said the proposal is being reviewed by a working group formed to look into cost structures. "One working group has been set up which is going to review... One of the suggestions is that if any scheme or fund is performing well above the benchmark, it (fee) can be linked to its performance.
Indian GDP will grow at 8.5 per cent in 2021-22, and the rate will accelerate further to 9.8 per cent in 2022-23, a foreign brokerage said on Tuesday. The GDP had contracted by 7.3 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY21, and is widely expected to grow at a faster pace due to the base effect in 2021-22. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects a 9.5 per cent growth in 2021-22, and the same to slow down to 7.8 per cent as things normalise.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
The Nifty IT has been one of the worst-performing indices on the bourses this calendar year. Rising concerns of a potential global recession, which investors fear can dampen demand for export-facing domestic information technology (IT) giants, have sent the index down over 30 per cent on a year-to-date basis. By comparison, the Nifty50 Index has shed 2.8 per cent during the period, reveals data by ACE Equity.
