A likely turnaround in profitability margins in the March quarter (Q4FY23) will not be enough to lift the outlook for paint stocks due to volatile crude oil prices and rising competition in the sector, analysts say. Hence, they advise investors to avoid the sector over the short-to-medium term despite the heavy correction in the stocks since last year. Shares of Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Indigo Paints, Nerolac and Pidilite have shed 6-32 per cent over the last 6 months versus a 3 per cent rise in the benchmark Sensex.
The country's largest listed footwear brand by market capitalisation, Metro Brands, posted better than expected December quarter results for the 2022-23 financial year (FY23), riding on store expansion and strong same store sales (SSS) growth. Profitability too remained robust, even as net profit growth was marginally lower. The company, which retails across the Metro, Mochi, Walkway, Crocs and Fitflop formats, posted a 24 per cent growth in revenues over Q3FY22.
Hyderabad police on Thursday arrested two senior executives of scam-hit Karvy Stock Broking Pvt Ltd for allegedly involving in diverting funds raised from banks by pledging clients' securities as collaterals. According to a police press release, Rajiv Ranjan Singh, chief executive officer and G. Krishna Hari chief financial officer of Karvy were arrested basing on a complaint by IndusInd bank.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
NRI steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal and his family on Thursday dismissed as "baseless" the claim made by Adina Kohn, a property consultant for a 350,000 pounds commission for the 70 million pounds mansion purchased by them recently.
A muted revenue performance in the September quarter and weak management commentary weighed on the stock of consumer major Marico which shed 8.5 per cent to Rs 542 from its intraday highs on Tuesday. The company indicated that demand trends were similar to that of the June quarter with instances of increasing food prices and below-normal rainfall distribution in some regions impeding the anticipated recovery in rural demand.
Sugar prices are hovering near six-year highs, leaving a bad taste in Indian consumers' palates but sweetening the portfolios of investors in related stocks at Dalal Street. Shares of sugar manufacturers such as Piccadily Agro, DCM Shriram, Magadh Sugar, and Bajaj Hindustan have rallied up to a whopping 200 per cent so far in the financial year 2024 (FY24) as deficient monsoon rains in major sugarcane producer states like Maharashtra and Karnataka are expected to lead to a shortfall in sugar output ahead. In comparison, the BSE Sensex has modestly gained 11 per cent during this period.
Given the uncertain macroeconomic conditions, most brokerages have turned slightly cautious on the pace of growth in State Bank of India's (SBI's) earnings going ahead. While they don't see any significant risk arising for now, its sheer balance sheet size and systematic importance has nudged them to cut earnings estimates for fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) and 2024-25 (FY25) up to 5 per cent. India's largest state-owned bank, on Thursday, reported standalone net profit of Rs 16,694.51 crore for Q4FY23.
The stock of Aditya Birla Fashion Retail is down 10 per cent from its February high. Even as the revenue performance of the apparel retail major in the October-December quarter's for the 2022-23 financial year (Q3FY23) was better than expected, the company saw brokerage downgrades, given the weak operating performance and the pressure on margins. This the second consecutive quarter of margin miss despite strong traction on the sales front.
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Heightened volatility and lacklustre returns continue to make a dent in retail participation in the equities cash market segment. The percentage of retail participation in the average daily turnover in the National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) cash segment has come down to 40.8 per cent in February 2023, from 52 per cent a year ago. At the peak, retail investors accounted for nearly two-thirds of cash market volumes in July 2020.
The excise duty cuts on diesel and petrol will cost Rs 45,000 crore and lead to a 0.3 percentage point widening on the Centre's fiscal deficit, a foreign brokerage said on Thursday. Going by the overall consumption, the costs of the surprise move - which came after months of concerns over high payouts at filling stations - for the entire fiscal will come at Rs 1 lakh crore or 0.45 per cent of GDP, economists at Japanese brokerage Nomura said in a report. For the remaining months of the ongoing FY22, the cost will come at Rs 45,000 crore, which leads to an upward review of the fiscal deficit target.
The March quarter (Q4) of the ongoing financial year (FY23) may see cement companies report better financial numbers as input costs ease, pricing action resumes, and cement demand remains firm. While companies have been cautiously optimistic about their outlook, analysts and sector experts remain bullish. In its latest report on the cement sector, brokerage IDBI Capital said that it expected earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) per tonne for cement companies to improve by Rs 200-300 sequentially in Q4.
At a time when the market is betting on a 'higher for longer' global interest rate view, Accenture's (ACN) weak revenue forecast is a negative read-through for the Indian IT firms, according to analysts. The Dublin-based company sees its revenue growth at 2-5 per cent in constant currency (cc) for the financial year 2024 (FY24), below the pre-Covid levels of 5-8 per cent for FY17-20. The weak projection, thus, signals that slower demand is likely to persist this year, and any recovery is unlikely in the near-to-medium term, experts note.
Benefiting from higher credit off-take and loan repricing, listed commercial banks are expected to post 43.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in their net profit in the quarter ended June 30 (Q1FY24), analysts have said. Controlled credit costs due to a healthy asset quality profile and a steady treasury book will also support a strong bottom line for the lenders in the first quarter. However, net profit may shrink sequentially, according to analysts' estimates for 13 banks sourced from Bloomberg data.
Sashidhar Jagdishan, managing director and chief executive officer of HDFC Bank, the largest private-sector lender of the country, has just completed his first term. The period October 2020-October 2023 was a roller coaster, and the second one, which started on October 27, could be more interesting as the lender absorbs the impact of the merger of HDFC, which was integrated on July 1, and moves to the next growth phase. Soon after he took over the reins from Aditya Puri on October 27, 2020, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) debarred HDFC Bank from enrolling new credit card customers and launching new products under the Digital 2.0 programme due to repeated outages on its mobile-banking and internet-banking platforms.
The country's largest lender SBI on Saturday reported a 9.13 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 16,099.58 crore for the September quarter, weighed down by money it had to set aside for employees' impending wage and pension revisions. On a standalone basis, the State Bank of India (SBI) had a 8.03 per cent increase in the profit after tax for the reporting quarter at Rs 14,330 crore. However, the same was down 15.13 per cent compared to Rs 16,884 crore in the June quarter.
India's biggest non-bank finance company, Bajaj Finance (BAF), is set to raise capital after a gap of four years. On October 5, the board of directors will meet to approve the fund raise by way of preferential issue and/or qualified institutional placement (QIP) subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The move, analysts said, comes ahead of expectations, and could be in the wake of simmering competition in the consumer lending space, especially with the launch of Jio Financial Services (Jio Fin). "While we still do not have finer details on the game-plan of Jio Financial, it has plans to initially foray into consumer and merchant lending.
Investors are increasingly turning optimistic about shares of new-age companies. From broad-based 'sell' calls, analysts are giving thumbs up to Zomato, Paytm, and FSN e-Commerce Ventures-owned Nykaa as these companies have shifted focus to sustainable profits. The shares of Zomato hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 126 apiece on the BSE on November 7, having rallied 15.4 per cent in one week.
The impact of the banking crisis in the US was visible in IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS) weak performance in the March quarter of fiscal 2023 (Q4FY23). The firm witnessed slower revenue growth in Q4FY23 and failed to meet its FY23 exit Ebit margin of 25 per cent as some clients, especially in the North American region, took to pausing projects and rising onsite costs offset utilisation gains. Sequentially, the company's revenue grew by just 0.6 per cent on a constant currency basis, which was one of the slowest paces in over 11 quarters.
The reported buyback of Temasek's 20 per cent stake in Tata Play by Tata Sons will be the third instance of Tata Group providing an exit to a foreign partner in recent years. In 2018, Tata Sons paid $1.27 billion to DoCoMo to buy back 26 per cent of the group's telecommunication venture, Tata Teleservices. This was followed by Tata Sons acquiring AirAsia Berhad's 49 per cent stake in AirAsia India in two tranches to make it a wholly owned subsidiary.
Notwithstanding expectations of a pick-up in construction activity during a seasonally strong January-March quarter (fourth quarter) of 2022-23 (FY23), analysts are cautiously optimistic about the building material sector - encompassing paints, pipes, wood panels, tiles, metals, and cement - as volatile input costs, coupled with fears of a global slowdown, are making demand projections uncertain. Against this backdrop, analysts suggest investors stay selective and pick stocks of companies with stronger brand recall, expanding distribution network, diversified product profile, healthier balance sheet, and sustainable cash flow. "The government's various proposals under Budget 2023-24 (FY24) may lead to the building material segment growing between 8 per cent and 12 per cent for the next five years.
Mutual funds (MFs) are betting on a turnaround in the healthcare sector to boost returns but are divided on the prospects of the information technology (IT) sector amid uncertain growth outlook. At the end of June, all of the top 20 fund houses were overweight on the healthcare sector vis--vis the sector's presence in the BSE 200 index, shows a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS). In the case of the IT sector, only six of the 20 fund houses had overweight positions.
The recent equity market weakness has sobered up investor mood, but the coming festive season is keeping analysts upbeat on stocks related to the consumption basket. Among the lot, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer electronics segments are expected to do well over the next few months, and investors should thus selectively take bets in these pockets, analysts suggest. "We expect good volume growth for the FMCG sector during the festive season with some improvement in rural demand.
Shares of ICICI Bank may outperform those of HDFC Bank in the near-term, analysts said recently, after the Sandeep Bakhshi-led private sector lender reported a strong set of numbers for the July to September quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The result, they said, reiterated that ICICI Bank is maintaining a sustainable and prudent growth led by tech-driven initiatives as against HDFC Bank, which is facing merger related challenges. According to analysts at Prabhudas Lilladher, ICICI Bank is valued at par with HDFC Bank at 2.2x/1.9x on FY25/26E core adjusted book value (ABV) basis.
After a record run in FY2022, when the brokerage industry is set to report over 30 per cent topline growth at around Rs 28,000 crore, the industry is set for a tepid growth next fiscal even though the outlook is stable, says a rating agency report. The market has been on a song since June 2020 when the first wave of the pandemic ebbed and since then it has had record run with the stock indices more than doubling since the Covid-19 mayhem in March 2020 and scaled new life-time highs since then. The market frenzy was also visible in the massive number of new investors coming to the equity market, as exemplified in the more than trebling of the demat accounts since April 2020.
10 stocks which are most popular with brokerages right now and are expected to deliver maximum upside over the next 12 months.
Housing sales rose 8 per cent annually during the April-June period to 80,250 units across eight major cities, mainly on increased demand in Mumbai and Pune, according to PropTiger. Sales stood at 74,320 units in the year-ago period across primary (fresh sales) residential markets of the top eight cities. The housing brokerage firm on Wednesday released its Real Insight Residential - April-June 2023 report, stating that housing sales rose in three cities Mumbai, Pune and Ahmedabad but declined in other five major cities -- Delhi-NCR, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai and Kolkata.
The two-wheeler sector has been underperforming its peers on the volumes front for over five quarters now. Even in the March quarter, Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp posted a 17-24 per cent YoY decline in volumes, the sharpest in the listed auto universe. The ongoing impact of frequent price hikes, all-time high fuel prices, and muted rural sentiment has led to the lacklustre showing by two-wheeler makers. What has aggravated the situation for two-wheeler companies, which get almost all their sales from the internal combustion engine or ICE-based units, is the traction for electric two-wheelers (EV).
Jio Financial Services, the demerged financial services unit of Reliance Industries, will be listed on bourses on August 21, according to an exchange notification. Jio Financial Services Ltd (JFSL) demerged from Reliance last month and is currently listed under a dummy ticker after its price discovery at Rs 261.85 but there is no trading happening in the scrip. The listing on BSE and NSE has been scheduled a day before FTSE Russell plans to drop JFSL from its indices.
An acute drug shortage in the US and stable pricing along with product launches are likely to boost revenues of India's pharmaceutical companies during the first quarter of this financial year, analysts said. Most brokerages estimate a top line growth of around 14-15 per cent, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) growth of 24-30 per cent for Q1 of FY24. Hospitals are, however, likely to report lower occupancy rates, and diagnostics companies may witness an impact from delayed monsoon.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may go for a hike of up to 0.25 per cent in the reverse repo rate at which the RBI absorbs excess liquidity and leave the repo rate at which it lends, to narrow the policy rate corridor, a British brokerage said on Thursday. "Growth concerns amid spread of the Omicron variant and relatively benign inflation out-turns provide the RBI with enough room to maintain its growth-supportive monetary policies," analysts at Barclays said, ahead of the resolution announcement next week. The RBI will hike the reverse repo rate by 0.20-0.25 per cent, given its liquidity management actions, it said.
The gauge for the performance of informational technology (IT) stocks soared nearly 5 per cent-most in nearly three years-as growth worries eased following a robust order book posted by bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The Nifty IT index rose 4.5 per cent to close at 30,945. This was the biggest single-day gain since September 14, 2020. Industry titan TCS' shares rose 5 per cent to Rs 3,509.
Renewed inflationary pressures, led by a spike in prices of vegetables and cereals, have cast a spell on the equity markets in the past month. The BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have declined up to 2 per cent each during the period, clipping the 13 per cent rally from the March lows, shows data from ACE Equity. Investors typically consider shares of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies as defensive bets, putting their weight behind them in a falling market.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
'In case the El Nino pattern plays out negatively and/or the political situation becomes messy, we may see markets correcting and waiting for the situation to become clear by early/mid-2024.'
Brokers have requested for a three-month extension from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for the validation of Know Your Client (KYC) records. In a letter to Sebi, industry body -- Association of National Exchanges Members of India (Anmi) -- has cited various issues and concerns raised by its members that have hampered the smooth completion of the validation process within the stipulated timeline. The Sebi circular had given KYC Registration Agencies (KRAs) a timeline of 180 days, ending on April 30, 2023, to validate client KYCs.
The ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict has disrupted India's efforts to gain from a recent fall in crude oil prices. Since Hamas' invasion of southern Israel on October 7, petroleum has become costlier by around $5 per barrel, threatening to stoke prices and impact growth. Brent crude was trading at $89.8 per barrel on October 9 (9.15 pm IST), up over 4 per cent, thwarting India's anticipation of a period of declining oil prices - after the leading global petroleum benchmark declined by around 11 per cent last week.
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
