Despite discounts on Russian crude oil - which fell to the lowest since the Ukraine war began - and the rising sanctions, import volumes from the country will remain stable for now or at least till July, said refinery officials. "There is an appetite for Russian crude, and shipments are not expected to taper off beyond this point unless something major happens. "Talks are on, and buying will continue," an official at a major refinery said.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, is back on a growth path after six months of challenges as it posted better than expected earnings in the December quarter, brokerages said.
India's export of fuels like diesel to the European Union jumped 58 per cent in the first three quarters of 2024, with a bulk of them likely coming from refining discounted Russian oil, according to a monthly tracker report. The EU/G7 countries in December 2022 introduced a price cap and an embargo on the imports of Russian crude oil in a bid to cripple Kremlin's revenue and create a vacuum in its funding for the invasion of Ukraine.
India is expected to ramp up its purchase of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the coming months following discussions between the two countries on the sidelines of the ongoing COP28 summit in Dubai, multiple sources in the know said. The UAE has historically been India's third-largest source of crude. It has suffered the largest drop in shipments since Indian refiners began to binge on Russian crude in 2022.
India's imports of crude oil from Russia touched a new high of 1.64 million barrels per day in March and is now double of the purchases from Iraq - the nation's traditional top oil supplier. But the purchases appear to have plateaued as growth has slowed. Russia continued to be the single largest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into petrol and diesel at refineries, for a sixth straight month by supplying more than one-third of all oil India imported, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
State-owned Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), which operates India's strategic crude oil storage, will make awards by December to lease around 1 million tons of crude oil storage space (7.3 million barrels) at two of the country's three existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), around a fifth of the total SPR capacity. This will enable the refilling of crude caverns even as escalating hostilities in the Gulf threaten disruptions in crude supplies, two industry sources said.
'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
India's import of cheap Russian oil scaled another record in May and is now more than the combined oil bought from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and the US, industry data showed. India took 1.96 million barrels a day from Russia in May, 15 per cent more than the previous high in April, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia now makes up for nearly 42 per cent of all crude oil India imported in May.
India plans to complete by 2006 a 180,000-bpd refinery, which has been under a cloud because of the proposed privatisation of the company that is building it, Oil Minister Ram Naik
Most of India's oil supplies are expected to stay safe because of the country's good relations with both Russia and Iran. That would take care of over a third of India's supplies.
Oil producers cartel OPEC's share in India's oil imports fell to an all-time low of 46 per cent in April as purchases of cheaper Russian oil peaked, industry data showed. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nations, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, had a 72 per cent share of all crude oil India imported in April 2022. This share slid to 46 per cent in April 2023, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
Indian imports of Russian oil plunged by a record in August month-on-month (M-o-M) as discounts on the fuel shrank in tandem with rising Brent oil prices. Higher crude prices will drive inflation or hurt earnings at oil companies and India's fiscal position if such spikes are not passed on to consumers. Indian purchases of Russian crude declined by around 24 per cent in August from July to the lowest level since January, with refiners expecting volumes to drop further amid rising rates of Russian benchmark Urals grade, substantial stocks at refiners, and planned maintenance at Indian refineries, according to ship tracking data and industry officials.
Upstream majors ONGC and Oil India (OIL) results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24 suggest better production in future. But OIL missed its own production targets although it delivered higher volumes and it disappointed the market in terms of Ebitda. ONGC reported standalone Ebitda of Rs 17,400 crore (up 7 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y) in Q4FY24, slightly below estimates due to other higher expenses.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
India will soon meet Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to seek a definitive rate of discount on crude oil similar to what Russia has provided so far, sources said. Multiple officials and industry executives said Iraq, which is India's biggest oil supplier, wants to discuss the level of discounts expected by Indian refiners. India's focus on snapping up ever-increasing volumes of Russian crude oil has led to a corresponding decline in imports from the Middle East. Flows from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have suffered as a result.
India's demand for petroleum products like petrol and diesel will grow by 7.73 per cent in 2022, the fastest pace in the world, an OPEC report said. India's demand for oil products is projected to rise from 4.77 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 5.14 million bpd in 2022, OPEC said in its monthly oil report. The growth in demand is the fastest in the world ahead of 1.23 per cent of China, 3.39 per cent of the US and 4.62 per cent of Europe.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly oil market report projected the world's third-biggest energy consumer to add 0.39 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil demand in 2022. India's oil demand rose from 4.51 million barrels per day in 2020 to 4.76 million bpd in 2021, recording a 5.61 per cent growth.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its partners, such as Russia, collectively termed Opec+, have decided to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October onwards, at a meeting on Monday. In a step that may increase prices in India, the group has decided to reduce output quotas for October, after a fall in global oil demand outlook. The cut in output is equal to 0.1 per cent of global supply.
Urals and Sokol accounted for every 4 out of 5 barrels of Russian supplies to India last year.
Petrol price on Saturday breached the Rs 83 per litre-mark in Delhi for the first time in more than two years after a rally in international oil prices forced a 13th increase in rates in the last fortnight. Petrol price on Saturday was raised by 27 paise per litre and diesel by 25 paise, according to a price notification of oil marketing companies. Petrol price in Delhi rose to Rs 83.13 per litre from Rs 82.86. Diesel rates went up from Rs 73.07 to Rs 73.32 per litre.
British firm Cairn Energy, which in 2004 discovered a huge oilfield in Rajasthan, will begin early oil production from the fields in a years' time from now.
Even as the Group of Seven (G7) price cap on Russian crude oil enters into force as of December 5, India has been assured it will continue to receive the existing deep discounts on Russian oil, for the time being, informed officials. "We have been assured by our Russian partners of uninterrupted crude supplies at the existing rates for the time being. "There were a lot of reports of changes in (India's) buying patterns after the global price cap took hold.
If 4,000 workers could work round the clock for the construction of the new Parliament building, then there is no reason why all infrastructure projects too cannot follow that model, asserts Dr Sudhir Bisht.
The increase in energy consumption was driven by renewables and natural gas, which together contributed three quarters of the expansion.
These countries are feeling the heat from the US shale oil producers.
Russia on Thursday said it was not bothered at a possible price cap on its crude oil proposed by the West, saying Moscow will negotiate directly with its partners like India and China as the price should be decided between the producers and consumers, and "not someone who just decided to punish someone." Members of the G7 have agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil in a bid to hit Moscow's ability to finance the war in Ukraine. Countries want to reach an agreement ahead of December 5, when Europe's embargo on Russian crude travelling by sea takes effect.
IOC, the key importer of petrol, has sought almost 700,000 tonnes for March-September delivery.
he media cited police as saying that a man wearing body armor entered a Tops Friendly Market after 2:30 pm EST (18:30 GMT) and opened fire with a rifle.
Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
India's Iran imports rise to 276,800 bpd vs 195,600 bpd in 2013.
China consumed roughly 10.50 million barrels per day of oil in June.
India has taken up the issue of high oil prices with producer nations and OPEC, demanding affordable rates, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli told the Lok Sabha on Monday. Petrol and diesel prices have shot up to record highs across the country after relentless price increases since early May. Petrol is retailing above Rs 100 a litre in more than a dozen states.
Production by the 10 member countries, excluding Iraq and Angola which joined the group this year only, increased by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 266.4 lakh bpd from 265.7 lakh bpd in April.
Iraq is willing to double the credit period on crude sales to 60 days if Indian refiners buy more in 2014, the head of refineries at Hindustan Petroleum said. Iran has also sweetened the deal to expand its dwindling market share by offering free shipment and a nominal discount to Indian refiners, sources said last week.
The task of Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to keep inflation under check, even when the country reeled under severe drought for two years in a row, and reduce the current account deficit, was made easier by low crude oil prices.
Reliance imported about 1.09 million bpd in January as it had cut runs at its older 660,000 barrels per day (bpd) plant by about 23 per cent from a year ago.
India, with the increases already made in the January-March loading plans from Iran, has to cut its purchases of the crude to about 110,000 barrels per day.
Iran can now unlock $4.2 billion of payments for its oil stuck with major clients including India, China, Japan and South Korea after it reached an interim deal with six world powers in November over its nuclear programme.
Despite the recovery to above $40 levels after hitting $28-29 in Jan, worries of over-supply in the face of weak demand remain.
Saudis are interested in expanding their relationship with India, given it is becoming the main driver of crude demand growth in Asia
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