S&P Global Ratings warns that Indian oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL may face reduced profit margins due to rising crude oil prices and government pressure to maintain stable retail prices.
Replacing over a third of India's oil imports at competitive rates is going to be a challenge, said traders from State refiners, even though some progress was made in the last two months.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
The Kremlin states it has not received confirmation from India regarding a halt to Russian oil purchases, following claims made by former US President Donald Trump. Russia affirms its commitment to strengthening relations with India.
India is well-stocked with inventories of crude oil and key petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), to deal with short-term disruptions as the war intensifies in West Asia, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said on Tuesday.
India's purchase of Russian oil has risen to 2 million barrels per day in August, as refiners continue to prioritise economic considerations in their sourcing decisions. As much as 38 per cent out of an estimated 5.2 million barrels per day of crude oil imported in the first half of August came from Russia, according to global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
'No one can or will bar India from pursuing its energy goals as it wishes.' 'The US FTA wording may sound more restrictive, but the underlying reality will not undermine India's sovereign energy decisions.'
'The entire US ecosystem built over decades at the bases in the Gulf region, especially the UAE, costing trillions of dollars have been decimated, dealing a mortal blow to the US Central Command's war capability,' points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The Kremlin has stated that India is free to purchase oil from any country, dismissing claims that India agreed to reduce Russian oil imports. Russia maintains that energy trade with India benefits both nations and contributes to international energy market stability.
India has gained the least since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and was penalised the most, while the US, China and the European Union emerged as the biggest beneficiaries from the war.
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
After a three-month slowdown, India's oil imports (already landed) from Russia bounced back in the first 15 days of October to 1.8 million barrels per day.
India's crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month slide in arrivals seen during July-September as refineries were back on full stream to meet festive demand, according to ship tracking data.
India's crude oil imports from Russia saw a marginal decline in September, but continued to account for over one-third of the country's total oil purchases, despite US pressure to curb the trade over concerns that it supports Moscow's war effort in Ukraine. India's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 220,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year.
The latest decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, commonly known as Opec+, to boost output is being seen as an attempt to regain market share lost to the US, Brazil, and other oil producers, who have been increasing production recently.
From just 0.2 per cent before the Russia-Ukraine war to now accounting for 35-40 per cent of total crude imports, India's reliance on Russian oil has surged -- drawing fresh scrutiny with US President Donald Trump announcing a penalty on top of a 25 per cent tariff, or tax, on all goods going to the US.
'Indian refiners can operate without Russian crude from a technical standpoint, but the shift would involve major economic and strategic trade-offs'
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to US threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
India's brittle energy security is inextricably linked to two opposing paradigms - fossil fuels, and the transition to green energy. The first powers the present; the second paves the way for Viksit Bharat in 2047.
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
Reliance Industries' refining earnings will remain steady, supported by its position as India's largest importer of Russian crude and favourable global supplies, according to analysts at JM Financial and Goldman Sachs. Reliance imported more Russian barrels than any other Indian refiner in the past eight months, according to data from Bloomberg/Kpler.
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
India's purchase of US crude oil has picked up in 2025 and could easily double their previous levels, government officials said on Wednesday. The surge comes in the wake of the then-incoming Donald Trump administration's announcement that it would consider hiking tariffs on a reciprocal basis, and pushed some countries, especially those with large trade surpluses with the US, to buy more of its energy.
In one video, apparently of the attack, a shirtless man holding clear bottles in his hands is seen pacing as the grass in front of him burns.
Russian shipments averaged 1.67 million barrels per day in January compared to 1.48 million bpd in December and 1.53 million bpd a year earlier.
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, spent 112.5 billion euro (about Rs 1.5 lakh crore) on buying crude oil from Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, a European think tank said on Thursday. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) released a report on payments to Russia for fossil fuels since February 24, 2022. "According to our estimates, since the beginning of the war, Russia earned EUR 835 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports," it said.
Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
India, the world's third largest oil importing and consuming nation, is likely to save as much as Rs 1.8 lakh crore on import of crude oil and LNG if the trend of softening international energy rates continues, Icra said Wednesday. India, which meets over 85 per cent of its crude oil needs through imports, spent $242.4 billion on buying crude from overseas in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.
A resurgence in Saudi Arabian supplies of crude oil to India coupled with an attack on an Iraqi tanker in August carrying crude to Europe may result in improved bargaining power for India with West Asian and Russian suppliers for winter supplies. Shipments of Saudi oil rebounded in September from August, surging to the highest since March while Russian oil shipments rose marginally as Saudi Arabia tried to claw back market share in Asia, according to industry sources and ship tracking data.
Even as Russia and West Asia have been slugging it out for market share in India to sell their crude oil, the US is quietly making its moves on the sidelines. The US has doubled its share of the Indian crude market in the past few months, according to industry sources and ship-tracking data. Some of the increase in America's market share may have come at the expense of Russia, India's biggest crude oil supplier, said industry sources.
Russia's state-owned oil firm Rosneft has agreed to supply up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to Indian upstream oil and gas major Reliance Industries (RIL) in the largest-ever energy deal between the two countries, Reuters reported on Thursday. The 10-year agreement amounts to 0.5 per cent of global oil supply and is valued at roughly $13 billion per year at current prices, it said.
The 16th Brics Summit beginning Tuesday in Kazan, Russia, is expected to see more focus on creating a sharper energy policy for Brics that ensures closer partnership among members in both energy security and energy transition, official sources said. The same is expected to be a part of the Kazan declaration, currently being negotiated, they added.
India is preoccupied with analysing the US sanctions, which may cut off India's access to discounted Russian crude and force it to buy at market prices.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Thursday reported a 7.4 per cent rise in its December quarter net profit, as its retail business rebounded and telecom earnings rose. Its consolidated net profit of Rs 18,540 crore, or Rs 13.70 per share, in October-December - the third quarter of April 2024 to March 2025 fiscal (FY25) - compared to Rs 17,265 crore, or Rs 12.76 a share, in the same period a year back, according to a stock exchange filing by the company.
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) expects a USD 10.3 billion revenue boost from increased oil and gas production, achieved through a partnership with UK's BP in the Mumbai High field.
BP Plc has won a bid to operate ONGC's giant Mumbai High oil and gas field by offering up to 60 per cent increase in output over baseline, the state-owned firm said on Wednesday. State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) had in June last year floated a tender seeking foreign partners to reverse declining output at its flagship Mumbai High fields, offering a share of revenue from incremental production plus a fixed fee but not any equity stake.
India's crude oil imports from Russia fell for a second straight month in January to its lowest in 12 months but the nation's insatiable appetite for Russian crude remains for the long term, according to data from energy cargo tracker and industry officials. Russia supplied 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil to India in January, down from 1.32 million barrels in December and 1.62 million barrels in November 2023, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia however continues to remain India's top oil supplier, accounting for a little less than a quarter of 4.91 million barrels a day of oil that the world's third largest energy consumer imported in January.
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