The government should not go in for an 'aggressive fiscal consolidation' in the upcoming Budget as global risks have not abated, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Wednesday. Goyal further said subsidies are expected to come down as food and energy inflation moderates. WPI inflation in food articles in November was 1.07 per cent against 8.33 per cent in the previous month.
With pricing power of producers unlikely to strengthen and commodities ex-crude oil likely to remain sluggish in the immediate term, the core-WPI inflation may remain sub-zero in the rest of this calendar year.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty on Tuesday spurted by over 2.5 per cent to log their best single-day gains in three months, propelled by heavy buying in metal, energy and banking stocks amid a global rally in stocks. The 30-share BSE benchmark zoomed 1,344.63 points or 2.54 per cent to settle at 54,318.47 points with all of its constituents closing with gains. During the day, it jumped 1,425.58 points or 2.69 per cent to 54,399.42. The broader NSE Nifty rallied 417 points or 2.63 per cent to finish at 16,259.30 points.
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
Emerging markets such as India have always run higher inflation rates than developed economies such as the US and countries of Western Europe. But for the first time in the past 30 years, the US reported a higher consumer price inflation (CPI) rate than India in five consecutive months. The US reported a CPI rate of 7.5 per cent in January 2022 against 6.01 per cent in India and analysts expect the trend to continue for at least a few months more
Among food articles, vegetable prices surged by 69.69 per cent mainly on account of onion, which witnessed 455.83 per cent jump in prices, followed by potato at 44.97 per cent.
The cooking oil national industry body -- Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) of India has suggested immediate initiation of government to government (G2G) dialogue with Indonesia on the proposed palm oil export ban from April 28 by them as it would have an adverse repercussions in India. Indonesia, which is the world's largest producer of palm oil and meets nearly 50 per cent of the total palm oil requirement in India annually, had announced to ban exports till further notice apparently to contain edible oil prices in their domestic market. "We have suggested our government initiate dialogue with Indonesian counterparts at the highest diplomatic level on the cooking oil export ban.
The retail inflation rate breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance limit of the RBI for the first time in seven months in January, while the wholesale price index stayed in double-digits for the 10th month in a row, showed two sets of data released by the government on Monday. Retail inflation, the key input for the RBI while reviewing the repo rate every two months, soared during the month mainly because of a spike in certain food items. The previous high for retail inflation was 6.26 per cent in June 2021.
The finance ministry has proposed that services should be included in the widely tracked wholesale price-based inflation index to reflect true picture of price changes in the economy.
Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 2 per cent compared to a build up rate of 4.56 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Inflation in food articles as a group rose to 11.08 per cent during the month as against 9.80 per cent in the previous month, mainly driven by exorbitantly high onion prices, the rates of which spiked by over 172 per cent from a year-ago. The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly wholesale price index was at 0.16 per cent in October.
Quarterly earnings from IT majors Infosys and Wipro, macroeconomic data announcements and global cues would be the major drivers for the equity markets this week, said analysts. Leading IT companies Infosys and Wipro and other players such as Mindtree, Tata Elxsi and HDFC AMC would announce their financial results this week. Moreover, industrial production numbers, retail and wholesale inflation data would be released this week.
The Union government has collected Rs 94,181 crore through levy of excise duty on petrol and diesel in the first three months of the current fiscal on the back of a record tax on fuel that yielded 88 per cent higher revenue the previous financial year, the Lok Sabha was informed on Monday. Excise duty on petrol was hiked from Rs 19.98 per litre to Rs 32.9 last year to recoup gain arising from international oil prices plunging to multi-year low as pandemic gulped demand. The same on diesel was raised to Rs 31.8 from Rs 15.83 a litre, according to a written reply by Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli in the Lok Sabha. This led to excise collections on petrol and diesel jumping to Rs 3.35 lakh crore in 2020-21 (April 2020 to March 2021), from Rs 1.78 lakh crore a year back, he said.
Domestic equity markets are likely to see volatility in a range-bound trade this week amid geopolitical worries and growing expectations of a sharp hike in interest rates, analysts said. Global trends, inflation data and the last batch of quarterly earnings will drive the markets this week, they said. Besides, the rupee movement, FII investment pattern and Brent crude trends would also be watched by investors.
Stock markets will focus on global trends for further direction in this holiday-shortened week as the earnings season is largely over, analysts said. Trade experts expect the key benchmark indices to move sideways as investors are trying to decode the impact of rising inflation on foreign portfolio investments. Inflation data released by the US and China last week have fanned fears of earlier than expected rate hike and boosted US bond yields.
While the farmers are not getting remunerative prices for their produce, at the same time they are forced to pay high prices for items they consume.
Data showed the country's wholesale price-based inflation eased to an eight-month low in January as food prices moderated, offering some relief to policymakers who have long battled to get a handle on surging prices.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
After consumer price index jumped the 6.3-per cent mark in May and wholesale inflation set a record of 12.94 per cent, house economists at Swiss brokerage UBS Securities have warned that the country is facing more upside risks on the inflation front that is set to averaging at 5 per cent for the year. Rising prices of edible oils and protein rich items pushed retail inflation to a six-month high of 6.3 per cent in May, breaching the comfort level of the Reserve Bank and thus rendering reduction in interest rates a difficult proposition in the near term. Led by petrol price, that has crossed the Rs 100-mark in many states, wholesale inflation too accelerated to a record 12.94 per cent in May. While crude oil has crossed $70 a barrel on account of rising prices of crude oil and manufactured goods due to spike in commodities, and the low base of last year due to the lockdown.
The primary and immediate impact of a depreciating rupee is on the importers who will have to shell out more for the same quantity and price. However, it is a boon for the exporters as they receive more rupees in exchange for dollars. The rupee depreciation has wiped away some of the gains that would have accrued to India from international oil and fuel prices dropping to pre-Ukraine war levels.
Inflation data and global trends would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week which after a record-breaking run took a breather in recent trades, analysts said. The overall market sentiment remains positive, supported by improving economic data and earnings but higher valuations can trigger bouts of profit booking, they said further. During the last week, which the 30-share BSE benchmark rose by 175.12 points or 0.30 per cent.
Young investors could allocate in the proportion of 70:20:10 to equity, debt and gold.
The price rise in individual key food commodities over the last one year is significantly higher than what is conveyed by the wholesale price index. While the latest government data show inflation at 6.68 per cent for the week ended March 15, the price change in most food items is in double digits.
Inflation in the 'fuel and power' basket in December slumped to 8.38 per cent, nearly half of 16.28 per cent.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
'The finance ministry and the RBI will never admit to the difficulties in the economy because if they do so, it will adversely impact the financial markets, etc.' 'They like to present a rosy picture that everything is fine and under control.'
Wall Street brokerage Bank of America Securities has pencilled in lower than the consensus retail inflation for the current fiscal year at 5 per cent, but higher than the previous forecast of 4.7 per cent. Stating that the June print will be critical for the future trajectory -- after the extremely high 6.3 per cent print in May, the brokerage in a report on Friday revised upwards its forecast by 30 bps to an yearly average of 5 per cent for the year to March 2022. "Though the June print will be critical for future trajectory, beyond near-term, we find some comfort from our analysis of four key factors that are likely to influence CPI inflation the most.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
BSE FMCG and PSU indices gained by almost 1 per cent each.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Gita Gopinath has made a strong case for regulating cryptocurrencies, saying it will always be a challenge to ban them as they operate from offshore exchanges. Gopinath also suggested a global policy and co-ordinated action for regulating cryptocurrencies. "I think cryptocurrencies are a particular challenge for emerging markets. "It seems to be more attractive to adopt cryptocurrencies and assets in emerging economies than in advanced economies," she said while addressing an event organised by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Wednesday.
Inflation print for food articles, as a basket, remained nearly flat at 7.47 per cent during the month.
The wholesale price inflation, decelerated faster than expected, to ease to an eight-month low of 5.05 percent in January.
The headline inflation eased to a five-month low in December on lower vegetable prices, providing some relief to the ruling coalition before a national election and increasing the odds that interest rates will stay on hold this month.
As India looks to mend its Covid-battered economy, one thing that will grab the attention of all concerned is the path that both wholesale and retail inflation will follow. Even the Reserve Bank of India in its latest policy statement said, "Going forward, the inflation trajectory is likely to be shaped by uncertainties impinging on the upside and the downside.
The Reserve Bank on Thursday said the country's wholesale price-based inflation and industrial production data should be improved and employment data availed for effective monetary policy management.
National Sample Survey Organisation, a division within the ministry of statistics, has been roped in to collect price data for the new series and a dry run is on the anvil in the next couple of months. The new series will have 2004-05 as the base year, as against 1993-94 in the present mode and will reflect a consumption basket that is relevant in today's scenario, thereby making inflation data more reliable. The new series will have 2004-05 as the base year.
Costlier vegetables slowly pushed retail inflation, which had remained well within the Reserve Bank's comfortable level of 4 per cent during most part of 2019, peaked to more than three-year high of 5.54 per cent in November.
WPI inflation, which was in the negative zone from November 2014 to March 2016, has been on an upward trend for the seventh straight month
According to the final recommendations of an expert committee, the weight of primary (unprocessed) food items will go down by 0.5-1.0 percentage points in the new series compared to the current one
Stock market barometers Sensex and Nifty ended marginally higher on Monday as rise in wholesale inflation capped early gains despite a positive trend in global markets. The 30-share index settled 32.02 points or 0.05 per cent higher at 60,718.71 with half of its constituents ending in green. The broad based Nifty edged up 6.70 points or 0.04 per cent to close at 18,109.45.
The panel has also decided to increase the weight of manufactured items and the fuel group in the new index. Accordingly, the new WPI series, with a revised base year of 2004-05, will see the weight of manufactured items go up to around 65 per cent from 63.75 per cent in the present series.
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