Gold prices could go up 12.5 per cent and touch $1,800 per ounce in the second half of 2012, according to the Thomson Reuters GFMS Gold Survey, released in Beijing on Tuesday. Improved investment sentiment for gold will help drive prices up, said the survey. Presently, gold is trading at $1,600.
The high import duty on gold, local taxes and restrictions on imports are leading to a rise in smuggling of the commodity into the country.
Barclays estimates $1,900 an oz this year; analysts say ultra-low interest rates in advanced economies to ensure demand keeps rising.
Non-resident Indians are bringing gold into the country by taking advantage of rules that allow each individual to carry 1 kg of the metal, helping traders cope with restrictions on imports during the peak wedding season.
A veteran bullion analyst expects monthly import to average 50 tonnes till December.
Exports of gold jewellery fell 23.13 per cent to $1153 million.
Gold is currently trading at Rs 25,200 for 10 grams.
Based on the estimate, a courier bringing in 1 kg of gold currently worth around $40,000 at world prices could earn $470 if not caught.
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