In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets' movement would highly depend on macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, RBI's interest rate decision and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. India's industrial production data for October 2025 will be released on December 1, an official statement said on Friday.
'When AI comes in, coders in Bangalore or Hyderabad will lose their jobs.'
Amid US-China trade tensions and economic vulnerabilities, India must seize the 'China +1' opportunity, deepen reforms, secure FTAs, and globalise its firms for long-term growth, suggests Ajay Shah.
The US on Monday decided to delay imposing its "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs until August 1, allowing more time to iron out issues between New Delhi and Washington before finalising an interim trade deal. On April 2, US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs against a number of countries including India (26 per cent), but paused the implementation of these duties for 90 days, giving all trading partners the deadline till July 9 to reach a deal.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 25 per cent tariff on all goods coming from India starting August 1 and an unspecified penalty for buying Russian crude oil and military equipment.
Luckily for us, a Russia that is desperate to stay relevant in an emerging multipolar world finds in India a reliable geostrategic partner. The Russian proximity to India also keeps China from exploiting its economic dominance vis a vis Russia, points out Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
India offset the decline in exports to traditional destinations by sharply ramping up shipments to Jordan (18,086 per cent), Hong Kong (17,006 per cent), Spain (13,436 per cent), the Philippines (2,235 per cent), and Namibia (1,068 per cent) in H1FY26.
Officials from both India and the US in the recent past have indicated that a "fair deal" will be concluded soon, with Indian officials holding that more formal rounds of talks are not needed.
China on Friday said it is assessing whether to start trade talks with the US on tariff reductions following recent approaches by Washington, a move that would possibly ease the tit-for-tit tariff war between the world's two largest economies. "China is making assessments as the United States has recently reached out to convey messages to China through relevant parties many times, expressing hope to engage in talks with Beijing over tariff issues," the Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a statement in Beijing.
Investors should tilt their portfolios towards domestic-facing defensive sectors, which should help provide stability and shield them from geopolitical and tariff risks.
United States President Donald Trump on Thursday night announced the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada, citing an anti-tariff advertisement that used a clip of former US President Ronald Reagan.
While growth in India is largely domestic and hence the overall GDP effect may not be more than 0.15-0.2%, but overall trade will be impacted due to every country going back to the drawing board, points out Madan Sabnavis.
The escalating trade war between the US and China is expected to benefit Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, according to experts. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (PTI) President S C Ralhan said that imposition of higher tariffs by the US on China will shift demand towards India, which exported goods worth Rs 86 billion to the US in 2024-25.
'Earnings growth will be the main driver of India's market in 2026, with profits expected to rise 9% to 10% in H2 FY26 and accelerate to 12% to 15% in FY27.'
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
Trump has repeatedly claimed that he "helped settle" the tensions between India and Pakistan and that he told the nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours that America would do a "lot of trade" with them if they stopped the conflict.
The change in the government's engagement with the economy's need for reforms is more nuanced than how analysts have so far perceived it, points out A K Bhattacharya.
From the Sensex firms, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints and ITC were among the gainers. However, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Tech Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, Maruti and Eternal were among the laggards.
The fee hike for the US H-1B visa by the Donald Trump administration has no short-term impact on Tata Technologies Ltd, although it will change resourcing plans for the future, according to its CEO and managing director, Warren Harris.
India and Russia are expected to unveil a major nuclear energy partnership during Vladimir Putin's visit, potentially involving Russian small modular reactors and expanded cooperation as India pushes toward its 100-GW nuclear goal by 2047.
Finding solutions to address non-tariff barriers would be important for the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the European Union (EU) and both sides are actively working on resolving these issues, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday. He said the two sides are "pretty" close to finalising the talks for the proposed free trade pact.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday claimed that India has offered to drop all tariffs on American goods. Speaking at a business roundtable in Doha, Trump also said he had a "little problem" with Tim Cook, and he told the Apple CEO that he does not want him to build iPhones in India.
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, as gold imports trebled and outbound shipments registered their sharpest contraction in 14 months, according to data released by the commerce department.
A day before US President Donald Trump's additional 25 per cent tariff kicks in, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday made a vehement pitch for swadeshi and Make in India that should help create jobs in the country.
The stock of Bharti Airtel, India's largest listed telecommunications (telecom) services provider, recently hit an all-time high on expectations of higher average revenue per user (Arpu), a stable market setup, and fresh revenue lines.
Industry associations and companies in the United States, including the US Chamber of Commerce, Coalition of Services Industries and the iconic bike company Harley Davidson have called on the Donald Trump dispensation to push India to reduce tariffs, non-tariffs, and regulatory barriers to boost American exports.
Debt-ridden telecom operator Vodafone Idea on Monday said its consolidated net loss narrowed to Rs 5,524 crore in the second quarter ended September compared to the year-ago period, mainly on account of savings in finance cost on debt from banks and an increase in average revenue per user supported by a tariff hike.
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) on Friday reported a 13 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in consolidated revenue from operations for the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), largely due to the cyberattack on its subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) in late August that forced a shutdown of its manufacturing operations for over five weeks.
Healthcare major Max Healthcare Institute delivered a healthy performance in the second quarter (July-September) of 2025-26 (Q2FY26). Strong patient volumes and average revenues not only boosted the top line but also aided the operating performance.
India's policy for agriculture trade must move commodity-by-commodity to gain maximum benefits as US President Donald Trump's 26 per cent tariff on exports from the country take effect, said agriculture economist Ashok Gulati in a recent policy paper.
While participants in the domestic financial market are expecting a 25 basis-point policy repo rate cut in the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists remain torn between a reduction in rate cut and a pause.
Trump may temper his approach from time to time, but to think that he will change his basic philosophy is delusional, asserts T T Ram Mohan.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation hitting an all-time low in October would encourage the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut the policy repo rate in its upcoming December 3-5 meeting. However, the July-September GDP growth, expected to be above 7 per cent, may act as a deterrent.
'When Prime Minister Modi met President Trump, they agreed to initiate a bilateral trade dialogue.' 'It makes sense to give these negotiations a chance.'
The Indian exporting community is "very" concerned about the possible reciprocal tariffs of the US as it could severely hurt MSME shipments to America in the short run, Federation of Indian Export Organisations President SC Ralhan said on Wednesday. He suggested that the government should come forward and support exporters to deal with these tariffs.
After Donald Trump became president of the United States, he unleashed economic weaponisation, upsetting the old world order, leading to much unrest. If that wasn't all, the threat of an imminent nuclear war was issued by the US, Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan. In today's fractious times, Dr Paulos Mar Gregorios would have made a dent, notes His Holiness Baselios Marthoma Mathews III.
'Trade deal will act as a strong trigger for market sentiment, not just for domestic investors but also for FIIs.'
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt clarifies President Trump's stance on H-1B visas, emphasizing his priority for American workers while acknowledging the need for skilled foreign workers to train them in specialized industries.
These duties will come into force from April 9.
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