Indian auto component exporters may suffer a hit of 2,700 crore to 4,500 crore on their earnings after the imposition of steep US tariffs on key automotive parts, credit rating agency ICRA said in a note on Monday. The new 25 per cent tariff on engines, transmission, electrical components, and other auto parts may moderate the overall auto component industry's revenue growth to 6-8 per cent in 2025-26 (FY26), down from an earlier projection of 8-10 per cent.
Passenger Vehicle makers are likely to see their cumulative earnings at an operating level erode by Rs 1,800-2,000 crore in the year ending March 2022 on account of the shortage of semiconductors, rating agency Icra said at a webinar on Wednesday. The industry, it pointed out, is estimated to lose production of 500,000 units at the end of FY22 due to the chronovc shortage the chip, which is critical in safety, entertainment and the various other smart features of a car. "In absence of the chip crisis, the industry volumes are likely to have exceeded the all-time peak annual volumes." Icra has pared its growth estimates for the PV market from the earlier 10-14 per cent to 8-11 per cent now in FY22.
'In FY23, PV sales are expected to end the year at a record 3.8 million units, up 26 per cent. In FY24, however, the industry is expecting 5-7 per cent volume growth'
Industry expects sales to remain depressed in the coming festive season.
Automobile manufacturers, new and old, as well as ancillary suppliers are set to spend a combined Rs 70,630 crore over the next five years on either entering the electric vehicle segment or stepping up their presence in it. Data culled from announcements made by firms shows India, the world's fifth largest automobile market, is poised to receive one of the biggest capex pushes ever to fuel the transition from internal combustion engines to electric motors and batteries as part of a green drive. The EV push, egged on by the government's emphasis on electric mobility to meet its net zero targets, is expected to yield at least 25 electric vehicles - new ones as well as electrified versions of existing vehicles running on internal combustion engines.
Ratings agency ICRA on Wednesday revised downwards growth forecast for the domestic passenger vehicles industry to 8-11 per cent in the ongoing fiscal from the earlier estimate of 14-17 per cent on account of the ongoing semiconductor shortage. Similarly, for the two-wheeler segment, it said the volumes are expected to contract by 1-4 per cent in FY2022 against an earlier prediction of 6-8 per cent growth as affordability and demand sentiments of target clientele was hit sharply by the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. With around 5 lakh units of production lost by various automakers in the passenger vehicles segment due to the semiconductor shortage, ICRA said the earnings loss for the OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) could be around Rs 1,800 crore to Rs 2,000 crore for the ongoing fiscal.
While margins contracted by 30 basis points on y-o-y basis, they fell a sharper 120 basis points on a sequential basis to 16.8 per cent. Profitability was impacted adversely due to subdued demand, tepid realisations in commodity sectors, and negative operating leverage.
The second wave of the pandemic in the country has derailed the recovery momentum of the domestic auto industry, which was poised for a comeback in the current fiscal after witnessing the two consecutive challenging years, ratings agency ICRA said on Thursday. Unlike the first wave where infections were largely localised to urban clusters, the second wave has seen deeper and wider penetration, including into rural hinterlands. Accordingly, outlook for various segments has been revised downwards, it said.
According to the Icra report, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margin of its sample declined by 44 basis points on a YoY basis and 23 basis points on a quarter-on-quarter basis to 16.6 per cent.
Average overall sales which used to be around 8,000 units a year ago has dropped to 7,000-7,500 units in a month. A lot of government projects have been announced but these are yet to translate to boost CV sales.
The overall volume at India's top four M&HCV makers - Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Volvo Eicher, and Mahindra & Mahindra - fell 59.5 per cent to 31,067 units during the month.
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