The banking sector could see better loan growth in the third quarter of financial year 2026 (Q3FY26) with improved net interest margins (NIMs), though the full impact of latest rate cuts will be largely felt in the fourth quarter. There may be lower slippage in unsecured loans and microfinance institutions (MFIs) along with steady recovery trends, which should lower credit cost.
ICICI Bank delivered satisfactory results in the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), sustaining return on assets (RoA) of around 2.3-2.4 per cent and improving asset quality. Provisions declined 26 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and 50 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q).
Axis Bank reported a sharp drop in net profit in the second quarter of financial year 2026 (Q2FY26) on higher provisions and weak operating profit growth while revenue growth was moderate. But loan growth and deposit growth improved to double-digits year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and asset quality also improved with the gross non-performing loan or NPL ratio moving down.
With the price of gold entering a strong bull run, gold-loan non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are under the spotlight, even though their performance is not directly linked to gold price. Muthoot Finance outperformed in the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2025-26 (FY26), with its assets under management (AUM) growing 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) and 42 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), an improvement of 88 basis points (bps) Q-o-Q in net interest margin (NIM), and a fall in credit cost. Gold AUM rose 40 per cent Y-o-Y and 10 per cent Q-o-Q. The company recorded recoveries of 350 crore, including 100 crore from an asset reconstruction company (ARC), resulting in a 100-bp Q-o-Q yield increase.
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance's (Chola) share has yielded one of the best returns in the last month. The company has sustained assets under management (AUM) growth at 7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), and 35 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q1FY25. Scaling up of new businesses now contributes to 13 per cent of loans (vs 10 per cent in Q1FY24).
India's largest PSU bank, State Bank of India, delivered excellent results, once the impact of a big jump in employee expenses was adjusted for. The net interest income (NII) beat the Street due to a better net interest margin (NIM) and good loan growth. The credit growth at 5.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) (15 per cent year on year) was excellent for a large bank.
State Bank of India's earnings growth may turn lacklustre in the near-term, warn analysts. This, they said, could be due to margin compression and likely lower fee income over the next one year. "While the cost of deposits is repricing sharply across the system, there will be relatively lower yield expansion going ahead as most of the back-book has been repriced and there is a high competitive pressure on yields.
The stock of State Bank of India (SBI) may re-rate soon, believe analysts, if the lender manages to safeguard its net interest margin (NIM) going ahead. This, along with controlled credit costs, should aid the outlook of the stock which has been underperforming the markets for some time now. "We believe delivery of growth on guided lines, sustenance of NIMs near current levels, and controlled asset quality parameters aiding controlled credit costs should lead to strong profitability and drive re-rating of the stock," said analysts at JM Financial.
HDFC Bank's market capitalisation (market cap) touched Rs 13 trillion in Thursday's (December 28, 2023) intra-day trades as the largest private sector lender is set to report its sharpest monthly rally in the past two years. At 10:33 AM; HDFC Bank's market cap stood at Rs 13.03 trillion, the BSE data shows. The stock was up 1 per cent at Rs 1,717.90 in intra-day trades on December 29, inching towards its record high of Rs 1,757.80 touched on July 3, 2023.
Banks enjoyed an expansion in Net Interest Margins (or NIMs) as well as in credit demand through the 2022-23 financial year (FY23). The credit expansion was because economic growth continued to recover from the Covid-19 years, and indeed, second half GDP growth surprised on the upside. The NIM expansion was because banks raised lending rates immediately (in many cases automatically due to floaters) as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked policy rates, and only started raising deposit rates late into the fiscal.
A strong business update for the April-June quarter of the 2023-24 financial year Q1FY24 has led to a big jump of over 7 per cent in the share price of Bajaj Finance on Tuesday (July 4). The non-banking financial company's (NBFC's) new loan book grew 34 per cent with 9.9 million new loans booked in Q1FY24 from 7.2 million loans booked in Q1FY23. The company's total customer franchise rose to 72.98 million (as on June 30, 2023), compared to 60.30 million year-on-year (YoY) with the highest-ever quarterly increase of 3.84 million in Q1FY24. Assets under management (AUM) grew by 32 per cent to about Rs. 270,050 crore in Q1FY24 from Rs. 204,018 crore in Q1FY23.
HDFC Bank Q4 review: HDFC Bank's January-March quarter (Q4) results, for financial year 2022-23 (FY23), brought no cheer to investors as elevated costs, and merger-related uncertainties continue to dent the sentiment. Moreover, analysts fear that merger-related costs may put pressure on margins and cost to income ratio in the near-term, while the return on equity could moderate owing to low leverage of the parent. Analysts, therefore, opine that the stock's re-rating may be some time away. "While the risk of a de-rating on a standalone basis appears to be quite low given that the business performance is holding up well, we believe a re-rating in the stock would happen as and when more clarity emerges on the smooth transition (merger)," said a report by Sharekhan.
While HDFC Bank has vowed to recoup its lost market share in the credit card segment in three to four quarters by aggressively sourcing new cards, brokerages believe it is a little hard to come by, given how competitive the landscape has become, with other players in the market becoming equally aggressive to gain market share. Kotak Institutional Equities in its report on Monday said, "We would like to believe that the recovery in market share is likely to be gradual, if any. "All the key players, including Axis Bank, are now willing to expand their credit card portfolios as they have tested quite well against Covid-19."
Analysts expect banks with a strong deposit franchise to benefit from SBI's rate cut as they too are likely to follow the leader.
According to SBI executives, the aim is to do things efficiently with an eye on profitability, and get a feedback on areas, including which business to enter and which to exit.
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