Usually, a fall in oil prices is followed with a cut in retail prices of auto fuels and the government passes on the benefit to consumers. However, Morgan Stanley believes gains this time around will remain capped.
Production by the 10 member countries, excluding Iraq and Angola which joined the group this year only, increased by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 266.4 lakh bpd from 265.7 lakh bpd in April.
The oil crisis could not have come at a worse time for the Modi government as its tax collection has fallen short of its 2020-2021 target by Rs 5.2 lakh crore.
Petrol and diesel prices across the country soared to all-time high levels on Thursday as rates were hiked again in line with the spurt in international oil prices. Petrol price was increased by 30 paise per litre and diesel by 35 paise a litre, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. The price of petrol in Delhi rose to its highest-ever level of Rs 103.24 a litre and to Rs 109.25 per litre in Mumbai, the notification showed.
Despite the recovery to above $40 levels after hitting $28-29 in Jan, worries of over-supply in the face of weak demand remain.
As stringent sanctions imposed by the European Union and US are crippling business and trade, desperate Russian oil companies are offering huge discounts to India, provided a payment mechanism to bypass the SWIFT ban is quickly approved by the government. According to sources familiar with the development, Russian oil firms are offering 25-27 per cent discount to the dated Brent crude prices. State-run Rosneft is one the biggest oil companies that supply crude to India.
Oil fell below $59 a barrel for the first time since May 2009 on Tuesday, extending a six-month selloff as slowing Chinese factory activity and weakening emerging-market currencies added to concerns about demand.
Persistent selling of the American currency by exporters and bank supported the rupee
Rising production from OPEC as well as the US also weighing on prices
'The question often being asked is whether the demand for petrol and diesel is price inelastic?' asks Arun Balakrishnan, former chairman and managing director, Hindustan Petroleum.
CARE Ratings, in a report, said it foresees an increase in the retail prices of petrol and diesel in the coming few days, depending on how the oil markets react in the reduction in supply from the cartel.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation forecast for 2021-22 to 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost. The RBI in June had pegged the retail inflation estimate at 5.1 per cent for the current financial year. The RBI has the mandate to keep inflation in a band of 2-4 per cent, with a tolerance level of 2 per cent on either side.
OPEC's move to cut output has pushed up oil prices. From here it could go either way: oil could reach $100/barrel or an analysis of demand and supply might follow, say Abheek Barua & Bidisha Ganguly.
The laggards include FMCG (16 per cent), Energy (37 per cent) and Media (34 per cent).
'The markets have corrected almost 8-9 per cent from their highs, so one can accumulate quality stocks at reasonable prices.'
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, soaring around 7 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, ONGC, Titan, Infosys and Tech Mahindra.
Top losers in the session included Maruti, Tata Motors, RIL, Yes Bank, Adani Ports, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, ONGC, HUL, Kotak Bank, IndusInd Bank and Axis Bank, falling up to 5 per cent.
ONGC was the top loser in the Sensex pack, cracking over 16 per cent, followed by Reliance Industries, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, TCS, SBI, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Auto.
Stocks of Indian companies with exposure to Europe fell on Tuesday amid concerns about the impact on their sales in case the Russia-Ukraine crisis worsens and the US and its allies impose economic sanctions on Russia. While top conglomerates, including Reliance Industries, the Tata group, and Aditya Birla Group, said they did not have any significant exposure to Russia, executives of some of the oil and gas, pharmaceutical, and tea companies said they were monitoring the situation closely as they earned substantial income from the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered troops into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine after announcing that Russia would recognise their independence.
The Modi government caved in under American pressure without even token resistance. Two countries similarly placed as India with high dependence on Iranian oil -- China and Turkey -- have shown the grit to stand up to Washington, says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
OPEC, which has oil reserves that constitute 80 percent of the total global reserves, is unwilling to increase output to bring down oil prices. This makes OPEC too responsible for the rising oil prices, apart from the weak dollar. OPEC has said that world oil demand this year is forecast to grow by 1.2 million barrels daily to an average of 87 million barrels per day. As OPEC's output remains insufficient to cover rising demand from Asian region, oil prices will tend to rise.
While OPEC has been unable to agree on an output freeze in an effort to support prices, Iraq was the latest Middle East producer to raise its exports quota
The Western world keeps talking, ratcheting up sanctions, the only thing it can do. The Russians march on to Kyiv and capture Zelensky and key members of his government as part of their 'de-Nazification' drive, predicts Shreekant Sambrani.
As the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, India is running out of options as the relentless surge in international oil prices make it imperative to pass them on to consumers, officials said on Monday. India imports 85 per cent of its crude oil needs and about half of its natural gas requirement. While the imported crude oil is turned into fuels such as petrol and diesel, gas is used as CNG in automobiles and fuel in factories.
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest gainer on both the indices, ending nearly 9 per cent higher following reports that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc was planning to pick up stake in the private sector lender.
Saudi Arabia's deep pockets and a strong financial system could help the country to ride out a low-price environment in order to protect its market share.
Crude oil's long price slide might be ending, feel some experts. Last Friday, the price of Brent crude, seen as a benchmark for what India uses, saw a low of $75.3 a barrel - it is now trading around $79. The fall has been nearly a third from its high seen in June, only five months earlier.
Petrol and diesel prices on Thursday climbed to fresh highs in the country as rates were hiked by the most in recent times, even as fuel retailers said the government can cut taxes to ease consumer burden. Petrol and diesel price was hiked by 35 paise per litre each after a gap of a week, according to price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. The increase took petrol prices to a fresh high of Rs 86.65 a litre in Delhi and to Rs 93.20 in Mumbai.
The task of Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to keep inflation under check, even when the country reeled under severe drought for two years in a row, and reduce the current account deficit, was made easier by low crude oil prices.
All Sensex components ended on a positive note with IndusInd Bank surging over 22 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, Mahindra and Mahindra, ICICI Bank, HUL, Maruti, HCL Tech and Hero MotoCorp.
India is estimated to spend $1.36 billion more a year for every one dollar a barrel increase in crude oil prices, says Subhayan Chakraborty.
The world, he said, needs to move towards a transparent and flexible market for both oil and gas.
The NSE Nifty slid 40.75 points, or 0.39 per cent, to 10,490.75 after scaling a new peak of 10,552.40.
Oil prices could reach $100 per barrel if there were "dramatic" developments in the Gulf or elsewhere, a leading oil official has said.
India's fuel demand in May slumped to its lowest in nine months as restrictions to curb the second wave of COVID infections stalled mobility and muted economic activity. Fuel demand fell 1.5 per cent to 15.1 million tonnes despite the low base of May 2020 and was down 11.3 per cent when compared to the previous month, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry. India was under one of the world's strictest lockdowns in May last year, which brought all mobility and economic activity to a grinding halt.
Bajaj Finance was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, slumping over 10 per cent, followed by M&M, Titan, Hero MotoCorp, ICICI Bank and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, L&T, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cements and NTPC were among the gainers.
Oil prices continued their rout on Tuesday with Brent crude and U.S. WTI both falling to their lowest in almost six years as a big OPEC producer stood by the group's decision not to cut output to tackle a glut in the market.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies reiterate his bullish view on Indian equities on the back of a steady fall in Covid cases coupled with a sharp economic recovery in India, reports Puneet Wadhwa.
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