Even though Bharat Forge's performance in the July-September quarter broadly met Street estimates and defence orders are on the rise, the subdued outlook for its global business has prompted some brokerages to adopt a cautious stance on the company. Analysts have reduced the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates to account for the slow recovery of its overseas subsidiaries. Valuations are also trading at long-term averages, which could limit potential upsides.
With sentiment for the automotive (auto) sector turning positive, stocks of two-wheeler auto majors have been hitting their 52-week highs. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors recently reached their yearly highs on strong sales in the festival season and the expectation of faster growth rates ahead. Since the start of this month, listed two-wheeler majors have delivered returns in the 12-17 per cent range, compared to the 7 per cent gains for the S&P BSE Auto Index and 3 per cent for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
India's largest two-wheeler maker by volume - Hero MotoCorp (Hero) - posted a better-than-expected operating performance in the January-March (fourth quarter, or Q4) quarter of 2022-23 (FY23). Riding on higher average selling prices which were up 5 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and volume growth of 7 per cent, the company registered a 12 per cent growth in revenue to Rs 8,306 crore. The company sold 127,000 units in the quarter, largely driven by domestic sales which were up 11.6 per cent, while exports saw a sharp fall of 57 per cent over the year-ago quarter.
The recent currency volatility - rupee's depreciation against international currencies - may have given heartburns to automakers that rely on imports or pay royalty to parent companies abroad. But for Maruti Suzuki India, favourable movement of the yen - the currency that matters the most - against the Indian rupee, has given it reasons to cheer. The yen's sharp fall against the rupee and the rupee's depreciation against the US dollar, which in turn will bump up export realisations, are set to give a margin boost to the maker of Baleno and Brezza, said analysts. The softening of commodity prices and slew of new SUV launches in the coming months will also aid margins, they said.
India Inc's cash pile was up 13.8 per cent last fiscal year, thanks to a combination of higher profits in sectors such as IT and fund raising by top companies such a Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors, among others.
Several carmakers, including car market leader Maruti Suzuki India pulled the plug on diesel models citing higher costs for BSVI variants leaving buyers with limited options.
Auto firms are likely to perform better in coming months.
Maruti is expected to post double-digit growth on product launches and good demand for entry-level cars.
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