Companies are squeezing more profits from their operations relative to the capital they put to work, the highest now since 2011. Profit after tax relative to capital employed came in at 10.47 per cent in September, shows data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), higher than the 8.41 per cent seen in September last year. This is the highest since March 2010.
A key indicator of corporate efficiency may now be better than at any time since the turn of the millennium. The net working capital cycle - a crucial measure that tracks the time a company takes to convert current assets like inventory into sales and then collect the money from customers - has seen remarkable improvement. According to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the average company needed nearly 90 days to complete this cycle in 1999-2000.
Indian companies are generating more cash than ever. The net cash flow from listed firms' operations hit a new high of Rs 11.1 trillion in financial year 2023-24 (FY24), crossing the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data going back to 1990-91. The FY24 figure represents a 19.3 per cent jump over the previous year, even as quite a few companies are yet to release their numbers.
Stocks in the automotive, financial, cement, metal, and hotel sectors are likely to benefit if the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes back to power for a third time. The key investment themes have been identified after analysing the Sankalp Patra - the party's manifesto for the next five years - released on Sunday.
'Large-caps are better placed to withstand the impact of higher input cost inflation, rising rates and withdrawal of excess global liquidity.'
The sharp rally in the midcap stocks has made valuations expensive, and there is room for a correction, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies in his latest note to investors, GREED & fear. The midcap index, Wood said, now trades at 24.1x 12-month forward earnings compared with 18.7x for the Nifty. Rising crude oil prices, he believes, are another worry for India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its annual crude oil requirement.
The S&P BSE Auto Index has been one of the biggest outperformers among sectoral indices over the past year with returns of 26 per cent. By comparison, the benchmarks - the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 and the S&P BSE Sensex - managed about 6-8 per cent during this period. Improving demand, falling raw material costs, and rising product realisations, led by the premiumisation of portfolios, have led to a revision of growth estimates and upgrades by domestic brokerages.
A strong performance by sectors including banking raised the profits of Indian companies by 28 per cent in the three months ended March 2022. The rate of growth is, however, lower than the 30 per cent seen in December. Growth in net sales was also lower than what was seen in the December quarter for the sample under consideration.
However, despite Covid, Indian markets registered their best financial year performance in a decade, with the Sensex and Nifty50 rallying 68 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
The retail frenzy over initial public offers (IPOs) seen over the past few months is not without reason. Over the past two years, 61 companies have tapped the primary market and raised funds via IPOs. Of these, 24 companies (nearly 39 per cent companies) have more than doubled at the bourses with Happiest Minds, IndiaMart Intermesh, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC), Affle India and Route Mobile surging 468 per cent to 722 per cent since their listing date till now. Retail participation in the equity market, according to analysts, has just reached an inflection point due to the low interest rate regime amid lack of investment-worthy avenues that can generate a good return for investors.
'Pockets of mid and small-cap indices are showing exuberance and are discounting even FY23 valuations now.'
India Inc's profit share in the country's GDP at 15-year low in 2018. Since 2013, net profit for top 500 companies has remained in the range between Rs 4 trillion and Rs 4.8 trillion despite steady growth in nominal GDP.
Markets
The trend in corporate earnings suggests that index earnings could fall to the levels last seen in early 2014.
The social impact of this could be worse as 300 million subscribers may face the annoyance of network shutdown and churn.
Titan accounted for 59.6 per cent of his disclosed portfolio at Rs 8,355 crore. This is more than 10 times the next biggest holding, Federal Bank, at Rs 619 crore.
Over the past one-and-half years, the number of stocks trading below their respective face value has increased 29 per cent after a sharp correction in stocks of small-cap companies.
Since last month, the realty (down 23%), auto (down 16%) and finance (down 14%) indices have underperformed the market by falling over 13%, as against 8% decline in the benchmark indices
In the first eight months of 2019, 70 per cent stocks in the BSE 500 universe were down. These stocks account for 94 per cent of India's total market capitalisation.
Stronger rupee likely to take a toll; Infosys results on April 13 to be keenly watched
Stick to export-focussed plays, large-caps, say analysts
If the rupee falls further, it would negatively impact the dollar-based returns of foreign investors, and could influence foreign flows into India.
According to analysts, IT firms like Infosys, TCS and HCL Technologies are likely to benefit the most on account of larger US exposures and dollar billing.
The 55-year-old executive takes over on August 1.
Softening rural consumption and the likelihood of weak corporate earnings in the March quarter saw investors dump stocks.
If you are bullish on the consumption theme, consider specialised mutual funds that focus on this theme. Remember that such sectoral mutual funds should not make up more than 5% to 10% of your equity portfolio.
The bigger worry is that the miss for FY19 is likely to be significant even after assuming macro factors such as crude oil prices, rupee, input costs, and interest rates, do not worsen from the current levels, reports Vishal Chhabria.
Contrarian stocks can help investors generate much higher returns than buying shares of companies that have shown consistent high growth for years.
An expectation of tax sops in Budget, weakness of dollar and robust tax collection are adding positive sentiment
HUL has achieved few milestones in the fiscal gone by and hence is performing good on revenues front.
Soon after acquiring strategic management control of Vijay Mallya's crown jewel, United Spirits, Diageo has swung into action, making up for years of lost time in trying to figure out the Indian market.
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