Oil to telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries (RIL) has initiated the process to seek shareholders' approval for the appointment of the third generation of the Ambani family on the company's board. The remote voting through postal ballot will start from September 27 onwards. In a separate note, CreditSights said a trust and hold-co model could be a possibility for the anticipated succession at RIL.
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
With general elections on the horizon, the government's privatisation bandwagon has almost but stalled as a government wary of being accused of selling family silver opts for minority stake sales on stock exchanges over outright privatisation. The result -- the divestment target for current fiscal year is again likely to be missed. Big ticket privatisation plans such as that of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) and CONCOR are already on the backburner and analysts feel meaningful privatisation can happen only after April/May general elections.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, Power Grid, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and UltraTech Cement were the major laggards. IndusInd Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Axis Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints, Wipro, HDFC and Maruti were among the major gainers.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday affirmed India's rating at the lowest investment grade of 'Baa3', with a stable outlook, saying high growth will support a gradual increase in income levels, but flagged risks of populist policies due to rise in political tensions. Moody's said although India's potential growth has come down in the past 7-10 years, the growth would outpace all other G20 economies through at least the next two years, driven by domestic demand. Moody's said the restoration of robust growth prospects post-pandemic, the effective commitment to inflation targeting and the rehabilitation of the financial system aided by reform supports its view of strengthening monetary and macro policy effectiveness.
Indian lenders are unlikely to clear the vertical split of BSE-listed Vedanta Ltd in a hurry, considering that the demerger would reduce the fungibility of cash flows across businesses and increase their volatility, according to analysts. The demerger plan, which would result in six separate listed entities, would require approval from shareholders, lenders and other statutory bodies. "We believe that a separate listing of different businesses would reduce the fungibility of cash flows across businesses and increase the volatility of cash flows.
The recent Indian telecom spectrum auction will hasten industry consolidation, strengthen tariffs and reduce regulatory risks.
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
India's economy grew at a two-year high of 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of this financial year, after a below-five per cent growth in 2012-13 and 2013-14.
After a $110 billion rout in market value, embattled Adani group got some reprieve on Tuesday after shares of most of its listed firms rebounded on bourses and international rating agencies said there was no credit risk for lenders with exposure to the group. The group, which is in the midst of a political storm after US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research's adverse report dated January 24 triggered a meltdown in group stocks wiping out billions of dollars in market value, also had a mixed day with the quarterly results of four of its entities, particularly Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone reporting a 12.94 per cent decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 1,336.51 crore for the December quarter 2022. Shares of flagship firm Adani Enterprises settled nearly 15 per cent higher at Rs 1,802.50 apiece while shares of Adani Wilmar jumped 5 per cent to end at Rs 399.40 on BSE.
Embattled Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had declared a state of emergency with effect from May 6 midnight, the second time in just over a month amidst growing countrywide anti-government protests over the economic crisis.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday said India's high fiscal deficit would pose a challenge in lowering the debt to GDP ratio, which is expected to rise above 90 per cent in the next five years. It said India entered the pandemic with little fiscal headroom from a rating perspective. Its general government debt/GDP ratio stood at 72 per cent in 2019, against a median of 42 per cent for 'BBB' rated peers.
Equity benchmark Sensex slumped over 1,000 points to sink below the 55,000-level on Friday, tracking deep losses in IT, finance, banking and energy stocks amid widespread selling in the global markets. A weak rupee, surging crude prices and relentless foreign capital outflows further weighed on sentiment, traders said. The 30-share BSE index ended 1,016.84 points or 1.84 per cent lower at 54,303.44.
The Centre could better its fiscal deficit at 6.6 per cent of GDP in this financial year on stronger-than-expected revenue buoyancy, even if the budgeted disinvestment target is not met, Fitch Ratings has said. The international rating agency had last week kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook, and said that the risks to India's medium-term growth outlook are narrowing with rapid economic recovery from the pandemic and easing financial sector pressures. In an email interview with PTI, Fitch Ratings Director (Asia-Pacific Sovereigns) Jeremy Zook said the two key positive triggers that could lead to a revision of the outlook to stable are implementation of a credible medium-term fiscal strategy to lower debt burden and higher medium-term investment and growth rates without the creation of macroeconomic imbalances, such as from successful structural reform implementation and a healthier financial sector.
Fitch said COVID-19 is still in India and it is very likely that the government will have to spend a bit more on fiscal measures to support the economy.
Billionaire Gautam Adani-led promoter group has paid off all of the $2.15 billion loans taken pledging their shares in the conglomerate, and only debt at operating company level remains, Adani Group said seeking to assure investors of its ability to repay debt. Adani Group in a statement termed reports of the group not completing repayment of $2.15 billion share-backed debt "baseless and deliberately mischievous." "Adani has completed full prepayment of margin linked share-backed financing aggregating to $2.15 billion (as was announced on March 12) and all corresponding shares pledged for those facilities have been released," it said.
'India is nowhere near the peak of the infection given its large population of 1.3 billion'
More shares belonging to companies of the embattled Adani Group have been pledged as security for loans taken by the group's flagship firm, a trustee said. SBICap Trustee in notices to stock exchanges said that a further 0.99 per cent shares in Adani Green Energy Ltd were pledged "for the benefits of the lenders" of Adani Enterprises Ltd. An additional 0.76 per cent shares in Adani Transmission Ltd were also pledged to banks, the trustee said. SBICap, which is a unit of State Bank of India (SBI), however did not give details of the loans taken by Adani Enterprises for which the pledge was created.
Billionaire Gautam Adani's embattled conglomerate said its balance sheet is "very healthy" and is laser focused on continuing business momentum, as it looked to reassure investors to keep faith in the conglomerate despite a share rout triggered by a damning report by a US short-seller. Group CFO Jugeshinder (Robbie) Singh in an earnings call said the group is confident of its internal controls, compliance and corporate governance. Separately, it released a compendium of group companies to highlight that it has adequate cash reserves and has ability to refinance debt.
'While we note the very strong cyclical recovery in the economy, we believe there is still uncertainty over medium-term prospects.'
After a tumultuous past few days that almost halved value of the Adani group, embattled tycoon Gautam Adani-led conglomerate had some pressure eased on Friday as two global rating firms stuck with their calls on its credit profile and its French partner backed its investments in the group firms. Also for the first time since January 24, shares of the group's flagship firm Adani Enterprises ended in positive territory after erasing an intraday loss of 35 per cent. Adani Ports and SEZ also ended 8 per cent higher. This is after a over $100-billion rout in value of group stock since the US short seller Hindenburg Research accused Adani group of stock manipulation and accounting fraud.
Singapore-born Tim David is an X-factor in Australia's Twenty20 World Cup squad and pace spearhead Pat Cummins said he is looking forward to the all-rounder's debut in Australian colours during the three-match series in India.
Well-known US activist investor Hindenburg Research has alleged that Adani Group was "engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud", a charge the conglomerate described as malicious, unsubstantiated, one-sided, and having done with malafide intention to ruin its share-sale. Hindenburg, a US-based investment research firm that specialises in activist short-selling, said its two-year investigation reveals that "the Rs 17.8 trillion ($218 billion) Indian conglomerate Adani Group has engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades." The report comes ahead of a Rs 20,000 crore follow-on share sale of Adani Group's flagship Adani Enterprises.
A slowdown in hiring by India's top IT companies has resulted in a sharp increase in the industry's profit per employee in Q3FY23. The top four IT companies earned a net profit of 1.7 lakh per employee during October-December 2022, up 8.6 per cent from Rs 1.57 lakh in Q2FY23 and 16.3 per cent from a record low of Rs 1.47 lakh in Q1FY23. Earnings per employee in the third quarter were, however, still down 0.9 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the GDP growth forecast at 9.5 per cent for the current fiscal but cautioned that the economic recovery is not yet strong enough to be self-sustaining and durable.
Richest Indian Gautam Adani's group, which has grown on acquisitions, has fairly solid fundamentals but debt-funded future acquisitions can start putting pressure on ratings, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. Starting out as a commodities trader in 1988, the Adani group has diversified from mines, ports and power plants into airports, data centres and defence. It recently forayed into the cement sector with a $10.5 billion acquisition of Holcim's India units and is also looking to set up an aluminium factory. Most of this expansion has been funded by debt.
Stating that an economic recession gripped global economy following the lockdowns due to COVID-19 pandemic, Fitch Ratings on Friday said the initial disruptions to regional manufacturing supply chains in China have now broadened to include local discretionary spending and exports.
Richest Indian Gautam Adani's conglomerate has cited an improved net debt to operating profit ratio and more than halving of loans from public sector banks to allay concerns about it being overleveraged. In a 15-page note in response to CreditSights report calling the group overleveraged, it said companies in the group have consistently de-levered, with the net debt to Ebitda ratio declining to 3.2 times from 7.6 times in the last nine years. "The businesses operate on a simple yet robust and repeatable business model focused on development and origination, operations and management and capital management plan," the note, reviewed by PTI, said.
While the collapse of a large financial intermediary can wreak havoc on the system because of the interconnectivity, a large business conglomerate too can play spoilsport if the banks have too much exposure to the entity, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Starting with the third quarter of financial year 2020-21 (Q3FY21), we have seen "unlock" trades at various times. Whenever lockdowns have been eased, traders have taken long positions in consumer-facing businesses. Let's look at the logic. Since March 2020, sectors like retail, personal vehicles, hospitality, aviation, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), multiplexes, etc., have been under severe pressure. As a result, there's been a low base effect. Every company in these spaces has suffered top line contraction. Many suffered losses, especially in the first half of FY21.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for FY23 to 7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.2 per cent mainly on account of higher inflation and a tight monetary policy. India's economy grew 13.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022-23, reflecting strong growth in services, ADB said in its second supplement to Asian Development Outlook Report 2022 (ADO 2022). "However, GDP growth is revised down from ADO 2022's forecasts to 7 per cent for FY2022 (ending March 2023) and 7.2 per cent for FY2023 (ending March 2024) as price pressures are expected to adversely impact domestic consumption, and sluggish global demand and elevated oil prices will likely be a drag on net exports," ADB said.
CreditSights has dialed back on its language on debt levels at richest Indian Gautam Adani's group but has maintained that the group's leverage is elevated. In a new note published after discussions with the group's management, CreditSights, a Fitch group firm, said it "has discovered calculation errors" in its recent debt report on two Adani Group companies but these did not change its investment recommendations. On August 23, CreditSights stated that the Adani group was "deeply over-leveraged" and may "in the worst-case scenario" spiral into a debt trap and possibly a default.
Vehicle sales have been hampered by weak consumer sentiment and still-weak availability of financing following tighter liquidity at non-banking lenders since the middle of 2018.
Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.3 per cent saying that the second wave of coronavirus infections hampers economic recovery and increases risk of longer-term scarring. Moody's, which has a 'Baa3' rating on India with a negative outlook, said obstacles to economic growth, high debt and weak financial system contrain sovereign credit profile. The US-based rating agency had in February forecast a 13.7 per cent economic growth for the current fiscal (April 2021-March 2022).
ICICI's board has denied any wrongdoing, highlighting that the loan was underwritten in accordance with the bank's credit standards and was extended as part of a consortium involving over 20 banks.
Richest Indian Gautam Adani's ports-to-power-to-cement conglomerate is "deeply overleveraged" with the group predominantly using debt to invest aggressively across existing as well as new businesses, CreditSights, a Fitch Group unit, said on Tuesday. In a report titled 'Adani Group: Deeply Overleveraged', CreditSights said, "In the worst-case scenario, overly ambitious debt-funded growth plans could eventually spiral into a massive debt trap, and possibly culminate into a distressed situation or default of one or more group companies." Starting out as a commodities trader in the late 1980s, the Adani group has diversified from mines, ports and power plants into airports, data centers and defence.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
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