S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
After falling 10 per cent against the greenback in 2022, the rupee staged a comeback in 2023 as it appreciated, albeit marginally, on the back of strong portfolio inflows, in addition to timely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian unit appreciated by 0.16 percent in six months until June 28. The rupee stood in third place in terms of appreciation against the US dollar among the 12 Asian currencies and in 12th place of the 23 emerging-market currencies.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys jumped the most by 3.67 per cent. Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Wipro, NTPC, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv and Larsen & Toubro were among the other major gainers. State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Titan, Tata Steel, Tata Motors and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards.
Japanese conglomerate Softbank's arm SVF Doorbell (Cayman) on Wednesday divested 3.8 per cent of its stake in supply chain company Delhivery for Rs 954 crore through open market transactions. Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, City of New York Group Trust, Societe Generale, BNP Paribas Arbitrage, Morgan Stanley Mauritius, Baillie Gifford Emerging Markets Equities Fund were among the buyers of shares.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.3 per cent in current financial year aided by investment and domestic demand. According to a World Bank report released on Tuesday, India continues to show resilience against the backdrop of a challenging global environment. In India, which accounts for the bulk of South Asia region, growth is expected to remain robust at 6.3 per cent in 2023-24, India Development Update of the World Bank said.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 11,630 crore in the Indian equity markets in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks and appreciation in the rupee. This came after FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March, mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. However, if one adjusts for the investments of GQG in Adani Group, the net flow was negative.
The US President will travel to India on Thursday to attend the G20 Summit, national security advisor Jake Sullivan told a press conference at the White House.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
Bolstered by an impressive performance in the global specialty business and outstanding results in the Indian market, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, the largest pharmaceutical (pharma) company in the country, showcased a strong performance in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24).
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
French energy giant TotalEnergies SE's $300 million investment in clean energy projects of Adani Green Energy Ltd has taken the total investments poured in by global investors in India's largest renewable power producer to $1.63 billion or about Rs 14,000 crore, sources close to the company said. Last week, Total announced it will hold a 50 per cent stake in the new joint venture firm where Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) will hold the rest. The joint venture will hold a portfolio of 1,050 MW, including 300 MW of already operational capacity, 500 MW under construction and 250 MW under-development assets with a blend of solar and wind power.
'Data-dependence means you can raise or drop rates. The present stance is only for raising rates.'
India is at a "tipping point" and a major focus for Apple, the technology giant's CEO Tim Cook has said, terming the opening of its first two retail stores in the country - in Mumbai and Delhi - as a "milestone" for the company. Speaking at Apple's Q2 2023 earnings call on Thursday, Cook emphasised the dynamism and vibrancy in the Indian market, calling it "unbelievable". "Looking at the business in India, we did set a quarterly record, grew very strong, double digits year-over-year.
Cognizant Technology Solutions has restructured its global growth markets (GGM) by appointing two internal leaders who will now share the responsibility. The move follows the exit of former GGM leader Rob Walker last month and is among the slew of leadership changes the company has seen in the recent past. GGM refers to the company's emerging markets outside of North America.
'If individual stocks start falling 25% to 30% or more, then I doubt how many of them will be able to withstand that (kind of selloff). That is when you'll see panic coming in.'
The affordable housing segment may be seeing an uptick which is a good sign of consumption momentum. This is the biggest-ticket purchase for middle income and lower income families. The current activity is at least partly driven by a pause in interest rate hikes.
Crypto assets should not be granted official currency or legal tender status, the much-awaited synthesis paper by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Financial Stability Board (FSB) has said ahead of the G20 leadership summit under India's presidency. However, the report has argued against a blanket ban on activities linked to crypto assets, explaining that such a move can be costly as well as technically demanding to enforce. Central banks should avoid holding crypto assets in their official reserve as they pose a risk to monetary and global financial stability, according to the synthesis paper.
'Historically, equities have consistently outperformed debt, gold, property, and other assets over a reasonable period.'
Billionaire Gautam Adani-led promoter group has increased its stake in the group's flagship firm as the ports-to-energy conglomerate continues to recover from the effects of a report by US short-seller Hindenburg Research. Promoter group has increased stake in Adani Enterprises Ltd from 67.65 per cent to 69.87 per cent, according to a stock exchange filing. Promoter group firm Kempas Trade and Investment Ltd, which had a minimal stake in the firm, acquired 2.22 per cent in the open market between August 7 and August 18, it said.
Nearly a third of an average Indian citizen's consumption budget is spent on food.
However, the world's largest non-alcoholic drinks company said that it remained well-placed to face any slowing in US consumer demand, as it reported results supported by strong international growth.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
The mid-and small-cap segments at the bourses have outperformed their larger peers thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). While the S&P BSE Small-cap index has surged around 5.7 per cent in FY24, the S&P BSE Midcap index has gained 4 per cent during this period. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up around 2.2 per cent.
After pulling out $17 billion in calendar year 2022, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped $7.3 billion back into equity markets so far this year. The turnaround in foreign flows has helped domestic markets exceed the all-time highs chalked up in December 2022 and bounced back more than 10 per cent from this year's lows. However, a big nugget of FPI inflows seen this year could be off the back of two factors: exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and block deals.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pumped in Rs 43,838 crore in Indian equities in May, the highest level in nine months, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and reasonable valuations. FPIs continued the buying stance in June too, and invested Rs 6,490 crore in just two trading sessions of the month, data with the repositories showed. VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said that inflow by FPIs will continue in the current month since the latest GDP data and high-frequency indicators reflect a robust economy gaining further strength.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
India is among the top three emerging markets in the wellness economy.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday exuded confidence that inflation would further decline and the government is on track to meet its budgetary target for deficit and said that there is no fear of stagflation in India. Replying to the debate on first batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants 2022-23 in Lok Sabha, the finance minister said inflation has come down and it is now in the tolerable band of the RBI. Inflation has been declining since April 2022 and it is declining further, she said.
Equity benchmark index Sensex buckled under selling pressure for the second straight session to close below the 65k mark on Friday, as investors offloaded IT, teck and metal stocks amid a bearish global trend. Besides, fresh foreign fund outflows also hit investor sentiments, traders said. In a volatile trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 202.36 points or 0.31 per cent to settle at 64,948.66.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 47,148 crore in the Indian equities in June, making it the highest inflow in 10 months, enthused by the country's steadily improving macroeconomic fundamentals. However, inflows in July may be subdued as FPIs might adopt cautious stance due to the recent comments from the US Federal Reserve, Mayank Mehraa, Smallcase manager and principal partner at financial consultancy Craving Alpha, said. Besides, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said FPIs are likely to turn a bit cautious going forward as valuations in the country are rich from a short-term perspective.
The New Delhi G20 Declaration refers only to the "war in Ukraine" and noted with "deep concern the immense human suffering and the adverse impact of wars and conflicts around the world."
Indian government bonds, particularly those of shorter maturity, strengthened sharply on Monday, as the collapse of the California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) prompted investors to rush to the safety of American debt, leading to a decline in US bond yields.
India's third-largest pharmaceutical company by revenue, Cipla, is up for grabs in a three-way fight between Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) and private equity (PE) giant Blackstone. Analysts say it is more likely for a strategic investor like Torrent or DRL to acquire Cipla than a PE firm, which may not derive healthy returns at Cipla's current market price (CMP) after the recent gains.
The impact of currency depreciation can also be mitigated by holding a portion of your investment portfolio in dollar-denominated assets.
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