Gold prices are expected to remain volatile next week as investors track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and key macroeconomic data releases that could shape the sentiment in the domestic market, analysts said.
Gold prices are expected to maintain their upward momentum though some consolidation could set in ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on September 17, analysts said. Traders will focus on the trade inflation data to gauge the impact of tariffs, inflation numbers from major economies including UK and Euro zone, along with monetary policy meetings of Bank of England and Bank of Japan which will provide more guidance for bullion prices, they added.
Gold prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the overall bias will continue to stay positive amid heightened expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in its September policy meeting, analysts said. Traders will closely track US macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and speeches from Fed officials, which will provide more insights into the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of the bullion sentiment, they added.
Gold prices are expected to witness further consolidation in the coming week as investors brace for a slew of events, ranging from central bank meetings, including the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting's outcome, to global trade negotiations, analysts said.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
Gold prices tumbled by Rs 3,350 to Rs 72,300 per 10 grams in the local market in New Delhi on Tuesday amid subdued demand by jewellers after the government announced the customs duty cut on the yellow metal and silver to 6 per cent.
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The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings of corporates and domestic macroeconomic data will influence trading in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Foreign funds' trading activity, monthly automobile sales data and global trends would also guide market movement this week, they added. Markets would remain closed on Monday on account of 'Maharashtra Day'.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has proposed that at least 10 per cent of corporate bond market trades by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) should be done on the request for quote (RFQ) platform. At present, most trades in the corporate bond market are over-the-counter (OTC), creating a lot of opacity. The markets regulator has been nudging debt market participants such as mutual funds (MFs), alternative investment funds (AIFs) and brokers to use the RFQ platform to boost secondary market liquidity and transparency.
With the markets scaling new highs, as many as 43 stocks from the Nifty50 index and 27 of the 30 scrips that are part of the S&P BSE Sensex are trading above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA). The 200-DMA is seen as one of the most relevant trend indicators by investors and traders, who believe that stocks and indices trading above this level possess strength and are likely to rally in the short to medium term, while the ones trading below this level are viewed as bearish and expected to see a sell-off. Wipro, UPL, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindalco, Infosys, Cipla, and Adani Enterprises are the only stocks from the Nifty50 pack that are still below their respective 200-DMA, the exchange data suggests.
Entities reluctant to get into new segment till settlement and margin issues are addressed
After selling dollars for the past few months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take a hands-off approach before its annual account closing by not trying to prop up the rupee as geopolitical tensions show signs of stabilising with global crude oil prices easing from its $140 peak. The central bank was a net buyer of dollars between April and September, and then turned a net seller in the following months, the data released by the RBI showed. The RBI continued to be a net buyer of $36.6 billion in this fiscal year - between April and January. In 2020-21, it purchased $68 billion on a net basis.
The Reserve Bank of India has permitted sale of government securities already contracted for purchase with effect from April 2, subject to certain conditions.
The behaviour of the foreign institutional investors is gauged from the numbers put out by the exchanges and regulators.
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