'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
Pilot said "opportunist" people are ruling at the Centre after taking votes on emotions but they have failed the country on all fronts.
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Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said underlying economic activity in India continues to be strong, but external factors will cause some "dent" to the economy. Speaking at the BFSI Insight Summit 2022 organised by Business Standard, Das said the RBI tracks 70 fast moving indicators and most of them are in the "green box". It is the external sector, mired by a fear of recession or clear visibility about slowing growth in a large part of the world, where the challenges lie, he said, adding that the impact of external demand will "dent" the economy.
As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
The Lok Sabha elections in 2024 are not a consideration when it comes to monetary policymaking, said Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das to underscore the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation. "It's not possible for me to comment what we do in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee), but one thing I can tell and I would like to make it very clear-that the fact of elections coming up in 2024 is not a factor at all so far as monetary policymaking is concerned. "Monetary policymaking is for checking (and) controlling inflation," Das said at the Business Standard, BFSI Insight Summit.
If the central banks act harshly now, the markets will crash and then rally. If they are hesitant, the pain will be prolonged, predicts Debashis Basu.
It would be a difficult task for the Indian economy to reach the $5-trillion mark a year before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection of 2026-27. Pankaj Chaudhary, minister of state for finance, said in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday that the government is taking steps to make the country a $5-trillion economy at a date earlier than the IMF's projection. In that context, it would not be difficult to meet the projection in the third quarter of FY27.
Trading in the domestic stock market would be influenced by trends in the global equities, macroeconomic data and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Markets may face volatile trends on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday.
'Recent underperformance notwithstanding, equities should constitute a major part of investors' financial portfolio.'
The domestic stock market may face volatility amid the monthly derivatives expiry scheduled this week, while investors would mainly await the outcome of RBI's interest rate decision on Friday, said analysts. Global market movement would also continue to drive sentiment amid a bearish trend recently following rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take cues from its global counterparts to raise interest rate for the fourth time in a row to control inflation.
What is more surprising is that a surge in Russian oil supplies has come after the G7 imposed stringent sanctions on Moscow.
So, while it is great that India's numbers look relatively good, don't raise a cheer just yet, points out T N Ninan.
Expenditure on new projects slowed down for the second quarter in a row amid an uncertain global environment and higher borrowing costs. There were new projects worth a cumulative Rs 3.26 trillion in the July-September period, according to data provided by project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This figure is much less than Rs 4.39 trillion in the June quarter (Q1FY23) and Rs 8.46 trillion in the March quarter (Q4FY22).
Subdued demand from developed countries and blocs like the US and EU is impacting exports of key sectors including engineering, gems and jewellery and may have implications on India's exports in case the global situation does not improve in coming months. Global inflation, Russia-Ukraine war, simmering China-Taiwan crisis and supply disruptions are hurting economic growth worldwide, leading to poor demand, experts say. The world merchandise trade volume is expected to grow 3 per cent in 2022 against the earlier forecast of 4.7 per cent, mainly due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, according to the World Trade Organization forecast, released in April.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel will start its 3-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of yet another rate hike of 50 basis points to check high inflation, in line with similar actions taken by other major central banks, including the US Fed. Based on the recommendations of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the RBI had effected 50 basis points increase in repo rate each in June and August after raising the short-term lending rate by 40 basis points in an off-cycle decision in May. The MPC, headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, is scheduled to meet during September 28-30.
Equity investors became poorer by over Rs 9.75 lakh crore in two days of heavy decline in the equity market, with the Sensex plunging 1,457 points on Monday. The 30-share BSE benchmark tanked 1,456.74 points or 2.68 per cent to settle at 52,846.70 on Monday. It had ended 1,016.84 points or 1.84 per cent lower at 54,303.44 on Friday.
In August, domestic equity markets garnered one of the highest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, despite the US Federal Reserve standing firm on unwinding its stimulus measures to control inflation. FPIs pumped in over Rs 51,000 crore ($6.4 billion) in August, the most since December 2020 and the third-highest tally since March 2020-the month the Covid-19 pandemic roiled global markets. This was the second consecutive month of positive foreign flows. In the preceding nine months, FPIs had yanked out over $32 billion or Rs 2.2 trillion.
The RBI's decision to hike the benchmark interest rate will make home loans costlier and affect housing sales, especially in affordable and mid-income segments, according to property consultants. The RBI on Wednesday hiked the key benchmark rate by 50 basis points. Property consultancy firms Anarock, Knight Frank India, JLL India, Colliers India, India Sotheby's International Realty and Investors Clinic said that the RBI's move was on the expected line to control inflation and this would result in an increase in interest rates on home loans.
India's GDP expanded 13.5 per cent in the April-June quarter, the quickest pace in a year, to retain the world's fastest growing economy tag but rising interest costs and the looming threat of a recession in major world economies could slow the momentum in the coming quarters.
The basket of crude oil that India buys has hit a decade high of $121 per barrel, but retail selling prices of petrol and diesel continue to remain frozen. The Indian basket on June 9 touched $121.28, matching levels seen in February/March 2012, according to data available from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). As per the PPAC, the Indian basket of crude oil averaged $111.86 per barrel between February 25 and March 29 - the immediate period after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent oil on fire.
Equity benchmarks mustered gains for the first time this week on Thursday as investors piled into the recently-battered metal, bank and IT stocks amid expiry of monthly derivative contracts. Snapping its three-session losing streak, the 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 503.27 points or 0.94 per cent to settle at 54,252.53. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty gained 144.35 points or 0.90 per cent to end at 16,170.15.
A 6-7 million tonnes shortfall in rice production due to a fall in paddy sowing area is likely to keep rice prices at elevated levels, adding to the inflationary pressure that the slowing economy is already grappling with. Elevated food prices, including that of cereals, had led to retail inflation reversing a three-month declining trend, to touch 7 per cent in August. Similarly, the wholesale price inflation, which declined to 11-month low, also showed price pressures from cereals resulting from wheat output being impacted by severe heat waves in some parts of the country.
She also took a swipe at the Bharatiya Janata Party over its defeat in the just-concluded Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, saying the ruling party's president could not hold on to his home state. "Who is the Pappu now?" she asked.
Housing prices increased by up to 11 per cent annually across eight major cities during January-March period of this year due to a rise in demand for residential properties and a sharp hike in rates of construction raw materials, according to a joint report by CREDAI, Colliers and Liases Foras. Delhi-NCR witnessed highest rise in housing prices by 11 per cent to Rs 7,363 per sq ft during January-March 2022 as compared to the year-ago period, as per the first edition of Housing Price-Tracker report by realtors body CREDAI, real estate consultant Colliers and data analytics firm Liases Foras. Hyderabad witnessed 9 per cent increase in housing prices to Rs 9,232 per square feet, while Ahmedabad saw a 8 per cent appreciation to Rs 5,721 per square feet and Kolkata 6 per cent to Rs 6,245 per square feet.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rates in its forthcoming monetary policy review but may change the stance in view of retail inflation piercing its upper tolerance limit, global uncertainties created by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the urgency to protect and boost growth, feel experts. The RBI governor-headed rate setting panel -- Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- will be holding its first meeting of the 2022-23 fiscal from April 6 to 8. The outcome will be announced on April 8.
The Opposition PPP on Thursday alleged that the PTI-led government was planning an assault on the Sindh House in the federal capital.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
Pilot's statement came amid reports of his discontentment with the Congress leadership.
The National Assembly session for the move is expected to be convened on March 21 and the voting is likely to be held on March 28.
'Our competitiveness with China is very important.' 'If the exchange rate depreciates, it is good for us because it helps in our competitiveness.'
Shehbaz, the younger brother of former three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif, received 174 votes -- two more than the simple majority of 172.
'There will always be a challenge to maintain a fine balance to ensure that the growth keeps happening and inflation is contained.'
"The Congress in a way is in the grip of urban Naxals. That is why its thought has become negative," Modi alleged in his 90-minute speech.
Goyal also said that current account deficit is likely to be 2.5 per cent of GDP this year.
'All imaginary figures are pushed by government bureaucrats.' 'They never showed that the production of wheat was less this time.'
Retail inflation during the first month of the current fiscal stood at 2.9 per cent, down from 4.6 per cent a year ago. Food inflation based on Consumer Food Price Index declined to a low of 0.1 per cent during the financial year 2018-19, the survey said.
Even if the Paytm fiasco does not mark the end of the bull run, at least some sanity will return to the wild IPO market, observes Debashis Basu.
'For equities, inflation trending upwards but within the range of expectations can actually be a big positive as it helps earnings and may shift flows from bonds to equities.'
Theoretically, the currency with the public should expand in sync with the nominal income, which again moves in relation to the nominal growth rate of the economy. But the correlation breaks easily when other factors come into play, says Anup Roy.
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