India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 4.1 per cent in January-March 2022 period, while for the full year 2021-22 the growth stood at 8.7 per cent, according to the government data released on Tuesday. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q4 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 40.78 lakh crore, as against Rs 39.18 lakh crore in Q4 2020-21, showing a growth of 4.1 per cent, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data. India's GDP growth has slowed for the third straight quarter.
India's GDP estimates for 2020-21 show that the economy is expected to perform much better than earlier projections by different agencies, indicating a sustained V-shape post-lockdown recovery, experts said. The first Advance Estimates (AE) by the National Statistics Office (NSO) has projected a contraction of 7.7 per cent in the real GDP during 2020-21. This was better than the projections by certain international agencies like the IMF and World Bank.
The World Bank has retained India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal at 8.3 per cent as the recovery is yet to become broad-based. As per the first advanced estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last week, the economy is projected to grow at 9.2 per cent in 2021-22, surpassing pre-COVID level in actual terms, mainly on account of improved performance, especially in farm, mining and manufacturing sectors. "India's economy is expected to expand by 8.3 per cent in fiscal year 2021/22 (ending March 2022), unchanged from last June's forecast as the recovery is yet to become broad-based.
The pre-budget Economic Survey, which is tabled in Parliament ahead of the Union Budget to present the state of the economy and suggest policy prescriptions, quite often misses on the GDP forecast, sometimes by a significant margin. This time, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the Economic Survey for 2021-22 in the Lok Sabha on Monday soon after the President's address to both Houses of Parliament. She will present the Union Budget for the next financial year beginning April 1, 2022, on Tuesday.
A head of its meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can take some solace from the softening food commodity prices. However, the events surrounding the last few weeks show that the fall may not be uniform across all commodities, and cereals like wheat and rice could be the outliers. A Reuters report said that local wheat prices jumped to a record Rs 23,547 per tonne on Wednesday. That is a 12 per cent rise from the recent lows that followed the government's surprise ban on exports on May 14.
Earlier, the CSO in its advance estimate had pegged the GDP growth rate for 2018-19 at 7.2 per cent.
Beside manufacturing, deceleration was also witnessed in sectors like agriculture, construction and electricity, gas and water supply.
Indian economy is likely to rebound with an 8.9 per cent growth in the fiscal year beginning April 2021 after economic activity showed significant improvement in the last quarter, IHS Markit said on Friday. The National Statistical Organisation (NSO) on Thursday predicted that the economy will contract 7.7 per cent in the current financial year ending in March, the worst performance in four decades.
Since January 2021, the inflation rate in health has stood in the range of 6.08-8.44 per cent.
Much of the Q3 data will simply not be available for the CSO to factor in its calculation.
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled in the parliament on Monday. "Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21. "This implies that overall economic activity has recovered past the pre-pandemic levels," Economic Survey noted. Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, it said.
Several experts are of the view that inflationary pressure, including that in food items, may build from October with economic activity gathering steam. However, the price movement in three key items of tomato, onions and potatoes, commonly known as TOP, may give some solace in the months to come. Traders and market watchers said the price movement in all the three will remain within the band sans any unusual spikes.
The Indian economy remains on track to regain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy after official estimates on Friday put the expansion at a tempered 9.2 per cent this fiscal amid concerns over the impact of a resurgent virus on the fragile recovery. The growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 9.2 per cent in April 2021 to March 2022 fiscal (FY 2021-22) given by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in its first advance estimate compares with 9.5 per cent expansion forecast by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last month. The economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in the previous financial year.
If the fiscal deficit for the year can be maintained at Rs 7.04 trillion, the deficit as a percentage of GDP will slip to 3.44 per cent
It is not a good idea to take the line that since demonetisation happened in the third quarter, everything that happened then was a consequence of that, says Chief Statistician TCA Anant.
The Indian economy has recovered 'handsomely' from the pandemic-induced disruptions, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Tuesday, while expressing hope that the recovery will be sustained and the growth rate of 7 to 8 per cent will be restored. Panagariya suggested that the government must now signal its intention to wind down fiscal deficit by cutting it by half-to-one percentage point in 2022-23. "The Indian economy has recovered handsomely, returning to its pre-COVID GDP... "Only private consumption is still below its pre-COVID-19 level," the eminent economist told PTI in an interview.
"Growth is expected to moderate gradually in China... pick up in India, and remain broadly stable in the Asean-5 region."
In fact, India's investment activity growth is also estimated to touch a 17-year low in FY20. With overall demand not showing signs of revival, investment activity may take longer to recover, economists said.
Measures that quickly boost demand and increase employment are needed to push up growth. Moreover, without announcing new planss, the government should strengthen schemes such as PM KISAN, MNREGA and programmes to build rural roads.
Santosh Patkar of Devgadh Taluka Sindhudurg district of Maharashtra is a worried man these days. Devgadh, which is known as the home to world famous Alphonso variety of mangoes, has seen an unusual drop in yields which is affecting farmers' income. Being one of the primary agricultural produce from the area, Santosh is not untouched by this somewhat rare phenomenon. He said in his own mango garden, yields have come down by a third from most trees.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the GDP forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth. In his address after the three-day meeting of the rate-setting panel, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said recovery in aggregate demand gathered pace in August-September, and it is reflected in high-frequency indicators, like railway freight traffic; port cargo; cement production; electricity demand; e-way bills; GST and toll collections. "The ebbing of infections, together with improving consumer confidence, has been supporting private consumption," he said, and added the pent-up demand and the festival season should give further fillip to urban demand in the second half of the financial year.
However, the estimates could change in the coming months, as full impact of excess rainfall and floods on the standing soybean and urad crops in central and western India in late August and September has not yet been fully taken into account.
Trading for long around Rs 75 a kg in Himachal Pradesh, they have risen in a week to Rs 90 a kg. In Jammu & Kashmir, it has gone from Rs 45 a kg a week before to Rs 55 a kg
A query has been raised about the "missing" Rs 1.7 trillion fiscal hole in India's financial accounts. This is so because the Budget uses the revised estimates, a projection of how much the government was expected to earn, while the Economic Survey uses the first actual numbers.
Foodgrains production in 2020-21 is projected to be a record 144.52 million tonnes, which is 0.80 per cent more than the production in 2019-20.
Experts believe the rising prices may encourage farmers to bring in additional areas for under onion cultivation during the rabi season, which may boost the precious bulb's output, reports Dilip Kumar Jha.
After contracting for two quarters in a row, the Indian economy entered the positive territory with a growth of 0.4 per cent in the October-December quarter, mainly due to good performance by farm, services and construction sectors, official data showed on Friday. Trade and hotel industry registered a contraction of 7.7 per cent during the third quarter this fiscal, as the sectors continued to suffer on account of coronavirus pandemic. According to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the farm sector recorded a growth of 3.9 per cent, and the manufacturing sector output grew by 1.6 per cent in the quarter under review.
India's GDP is estimated to contract by a record 7.7 per cent during 2020-21 as the COVID-19 pandemic severely hit the key manufacturing and services segments, as per government projections released on Thursday. Amid overall decline in economic activities, some respite was provided by the agriculture sector and utility services like power and gas supply, which have been projected to post positive growth during the current fiscal ending March 2021.
Key Planning Commission official says push from small-scale industries will help reach the figure, but others disagree.
Macroeconomic management is usually a lot more comfortable with lower fiscal deficits. The sooner we get there, the better for the economy, says former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India Shankar Acharya.
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
The Indian economy can contract by 7.7 per cent in current financial year ending on March 31 and the growth could be 11 per cent in the next financial year, according to the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. The contraction in FY21 is mainly due to coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and the visible damage caused by the subsequent countrywide lockdown to contain it. The survey unveiled two days before the Union Budget is broadly in line with forecasts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which has said it expected the country's GDP to contract by 7.5 per cent in the year ending March 31.
GDP growth during 2018-19 is estimated at 7 per cent as compared to 7.2 per cent in 2017-18.
For potato farmers in the north and wheat growers in the eastern parts -- particularly in Jharkhand, Bihar, and Odisha -- the recent rains could in fact be beneficial.
However, economic growth in five years of the UPA and NDA cannot be compared because of the now complex back series data, reports Indivjal Dhasmana.
Is the worst over for Indian banks? The past two years saw them ride on treasury trades as deposits soared and credit growth dipped sharply. Gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) moved south, and the provision coverage ratio (PCR), capital buffers, and profitability indicators are back at pre-pandemic levels. So, what's the plot ahead?
The change in the baseline for IIP and WPI, currently at 2004-05, is expected to bring in more accuracy in mapping the level of economic activity and calculating other numbers like national accounts.
The latest official numbers on the price of agricultural produce gives an idea of what's fueling the farmers' protest in Delhi.
BSE-listed companies' market capitalisation reached Rs 197.7 trillion on January 21, against India's nominal GDP of Rs 190 trillion during 12 months ended December 2020.
According to the government's third advance estimate posted on the website on Tuesday, rice production is projected at record 99.37 million tonnes, up from 98.89 million tonnes pegged in the second advance estimate released in February. The previous record was 96.69 million tonnes of rice in 2007-08 season.
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