Besides the additional $1.8 trillion in deficit reduction, which will put the total reduction target at $4.3 trillion, the budget proposals envisage more than $2 in spending cuts for every $1 of new revenue from closing tax loopholes and reducing tax benefits for the wealthiest.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's pace of debt reduction is gradual, leaving room for a downside risk to sovereign rating in the eventuality of a significant economic shock. However, the rating agency expressed confidence in India's ability to stick to its medium-term fiscal framework, which aims to reduce debt and bring it on a downward trajectory over time.
India's state-level fiscal rules have improved headline deficits, but the gains are fragile and uneven with major states still grappling with high debt levels, a World Bank report submitted to the 16th Finance Commission (FC) said. According to the report, despite nearly two decades of adoption of fiscal responsibility laws (FRLs), debt levels have not converged.
On Agri Stack, Expenditure Secy V Vualnam says it's progressing well; using IT, farmers will be able to choose exact fertiliser quantities needed, reducing crowding at fertiliser outlets.
Here are the key numbers to watch out for in the Union Budget for 2025-26:
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
Gold imports climbed 349.22 per cent to $12.07 billion in January, while silver imports rose 127 per cent to $2 billion.
After the last Budget's announcement of a major tax relief for those earning an annual salary of less than Rs 12 lakh, there is not much that individuals can look forward to in the forthcoming Budget, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The official also advised all the trade partners to abide by the trade deals. The new 10 percent global tariff is part of Trump's protectionist trade agenda, aimed at addressing balance-of-payments issues and unfair trade practices.
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, as gold imports trebled and outbound shipments registered their sharpest contraction in 14 months, according to data released by the commerce department.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
The finance minister said that consolidation of state-owned banks could proceed at any time without waiting for the recommendations of the proposed high-level committee on banking.
Highlights of the Economic Survey 2025-26
India's exports contracted 11.8 per cent to $34.38 billion in October, showed government data released on Monday. Imports jumped 16.63 per cent to $76.06 billion.
The idea of back-loading the target of fiscal consolidation is perhaps guided by the government's desire to be prepared for any adverse developments in the coming year, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Trump announced that India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will charge a reduced reciprocal tariff on Delhi, lowering it from 25 per cent to 18 per cent.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
The Union Budget for 2026-27, presented by Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday, which was a first, had an excellent domestic macro backdrop. According to the first advance estimates, gross domestic product (GDP) in constant prices is projected to grow 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, against 6.5 per cent in 2024-25.
'We kept this Budget on a larger plank, rather than on one incident, however serious.'
'This Budget has a one-year agenda, which you can call the sprint, and the marathon is towards Viksit Bharat.'
New Delhi will substantially reduce tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods while continuing to protect sensitive sectors. Tariffs on some agricultural products that are not traditionally considered sensitive will be brought down to zero, while in the case of relatively sensitive items, duties will be reduced in a graded manner and quotas will be imposed.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
'Economic activity appears to have peaked in the second quarter of FY26, with industrial output, exports, and business confidence all softening from October 2025.'
India is growing fast, but to keep growing strong, the government must make more things at home, create jobs, and spend money wisely, suggests Rajiv Memani, regional managing partner, Africa-India Region, EY.
The best course for the government at this time would be to tighten the seat belt a little more, without compromising on its investments in creating better infrastructure and giving a push to privatisation, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The reduction in the goods and services tax (GST) rates has increased the momentum in India's economic activity both on the supply and demand sides, while robust agricultural activity - reflected in the strong onset of rabi sowing and adequate reservoir levels - has reinforced the outlook for food supply and rural incomes, the finance ministry said on Thursday.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
Using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor aligns with efforts to promote fiscal transparency through proper disclosure of off-budget borrowings.
The Indian government has expressed its disagreement with the IMF staff's 'baseline' assumption that the 50 per cent US tariffs on its goods exports 'would remain in place indefinitely', based on which the staff pegged the country's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent this year, and pared its 2026-27 projection by 20 basis points to 6.2 per cent.
The Trump administration said it will conduct a "rigorous" re-examination of all Green Cards issued to immigrants from "every country of concern".
Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council says step will balance trade deficit with the US.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) short dollar forward positions rose by $6 billion in September - the first increase in seven months - indicating the central bank's readiness to defend the rupee in the forward market amid pressure on the currency, latest data showed. The net short dollar position stood at $59.4 billion at the end of September, up from $53.4 billion in August.
Despite a strong 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year as the impact of US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce prospects, particularly in the second half, ADB said on Tuesday.
The RBI under new Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday cut interest rate for the first time in nearly five years as the central bank pivoted the policy stance to support a shuttering economy. The 25 basis points rate cut to 6.25 per cent comes after last rate reduction in May 2020. The last revision of rates happened in February 2023 when the policy rate was hiked by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
Finance Minister Jaswant Singh chose a newly refurbished hall in North Block to defend his announcements in a post-interim Budget interview.
The liquidity deficit in the banking system crossed Rs 2 trillion again on Monday, despite the second instalment of cash reserve ratio (CRR) reduction coming into effect from December 28.
The State Bank of India (SBI) in its latest research report said that reforms in GST through reduction in rates will cause a minimal revenue loss of Rs 3,700 crore. The government estimates the net fiscal impact of GST rates rationalisation will be Rs 48,000 crore on an annualised basis.
To ensure a glitch-free rollout of the next-generation GST with reduced rates and lesser slabs, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman chaired three separate meetings to assess GSTN's preparedness and the time it would take to implement technological changes required in the software systems.
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